College Basketball Picks

The Wichita State Shockers (11-7) face a tough test on Thursday as they travel to take on the Memphis Tigers (14-4) in an AAC showdown. Both teams have their flaws, but this matchup could hinge on which team controls the pace and capitalizes on timely shooting. Memphis has been inconsistent in conference play, going 4-1 straight up but only 1-4 against the spread. The Tigers have benefited from opponents shooting just 27% from three despite allowing one of the highest three-point attempt rates in the league. On the flip side, Wichita State has struggled in AAC play, sitting at 1-4 largely due to opponents shooting a blistering 42% from beyond the arc, while the Shockers hit just 31% of their own threes. Both of these trends suggest some progression could be in store for Wichita.

Offensively, Wichita thrives on transition opportunities and attacking the rim, but Memphis has proven effective at defending both. Defensively, Wichita prioritizes limiting fouls, but struggles against isolation sets — strengths of Memphis’ guard-heavy offense. With Memphis’ tendency to slow the game down and both teams struggling offensively, a low-scoring affair seems likely. The Shockers could hang around by winning the rebounding and turnover battles, but Memphis has the edge overall. Memphis is 1-4 to the over in conference game so far this year while Wichita is just 3-2 to the over so no real edge there. Expect some sloppy offense in a close and low scoring game.

Wichita State vs Memphis prediction: Under 156 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Illinois Fighting Illini (13-5) return to Champaign to host the Maryland Terrapins (14-5) on Thursday night after the Illini let their game at Michigan State slip away in the 2nd half. Illinois struggled from the perimeter (5/24) and the free throw line (17/27), leading to a close 2-point loss at the Breslin Center. Meanwhile, Maryland comes into this contest having been in a couple consecutive close games. The Terrapins haven’t been good in true road games this season, dropping all 4 games (and covering just 1) – including a 2-point overtime loss at Northwestern last week. The Terps were in each of those games until late in the 2nd half but were unable to close in any of them. 

While the Terps have surpassed expectations and have not lost by more than 6 points at any point yet this season, I’m not a complete believer in their resume – especially in conference play. Maryland has avoided all but 1 of the top 5 offenses and defenses in the Big Ten per in-conference metrics from KenPom thus far, and has benefitted from playing 4 of the bottom 7 defenses in the 18-team league. Illinois boasts the 2nd-best defense in the league per adjusted efficiency metrics, and has been relatively stout on its home floor outside of the loss to a surging Eric Musselman USC team in its last home game – a game in which the Illini were without arguably their best perimeter defender in Kasparas Jakucionis. 

As Maryland gets deeper into league play, it continues to lose its early season momentum, under-performing offensive and defensive expectations in 6 of its last 8 games – good for a 361st ranking in Haslametrics’ momentum statistic. The Terps are also 357th in Haslametrics’ Away From Home metric, so the current number in the market makes sense despite Maryland keeping all of their games within 2 possessions thus far. For what it’s worth, Maryland’s defensive numbers drop off a cliff when they play the top teams in the sport. Against top 50 opponents, the Terps are 2-4 SU and rank 113th in adjusted defensive efficiency per Bart Torvik. Against top 25 opponents, they drop to 135th. Lay it with the Illini at home.

Maryland vs Illinois prediction: Illinois -8.5 (-102) at the time of publishing. Playable to -9.

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The Toreros of San Diego hit the road for Portland looking for just their fifth victory of the season. USD has dropped 6 in a row since flipping the calendar from 2024 to 2025. The team’s last victory was at home on Dec. 30 against Pacific, 75-65. The team’s last victory on the road was Feb. 10, 2024, ironically against Pacific. While the Toreros haven’t been picking up a lot of victories, San Diego has covered three of the past four games, and seven of the previous nine since Dec. 21. The total has ended up going high in 3 of the past 4 games for San Diego, with the defense allowing 77 or more points in 5 of the previous 6 outings.

On the flip side, Portland is coming off a 92-70 loss at Washington State on Saturday. And, yep, the last win for the Pilots came at Chiles Center against Pacific last Thursday, winning 84-81 in overtime. The Pilots are just 1-3 ATS in the past four games. Since we can’t really depend on either of these teams for the spread, we look to the total. The over is 4-0 in the past 4 games for the Pilots, while going 6-1 in the past 7 games since Dec. 28. The Over has cashed in each of the past 3 home meetings against the Toreros, while the total has gone high in 5 of the past 6 when hosted by the Pilots.

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