NBA Picks

Losing LeBron James in the first game of this 4-game road trip is a blow to the Lakers who went into Boston with a lot of momentum, but couldn’t pull out the win. Before they take on the Bucks and Nuggets, they have the easiest game of the trip in Brooklyn on Monday night. Luka Doncic has come into his own lately, scoring 30+ in 4 of his last 5 games, but he too is bothered by a back issue. With James out, I do believe Doncic will play here, otherwise the Lakers are screwed. Upping the tempo is a strategy that should work against the Nets who aren’t exactly the highest of scoring teams in the NBA.

Brooklyn’s defense has taken a tumble over the past couple of weeks or so. Over their last 8 games they rank just 25th in efficiency, allowing 120.2 points per 100 possessions. As a result they’ve lost 7 games in a row, while at home they’re just 4-16 SU in their last 20 outings. Cam Thomas, one of their few reliable scoring options, is out of this game due to a hamstring issue so the Nets could once again face issues scoring the ball. Against Western Conference opponents they’ve won just 3 times in 17 outings, even their home record against the spread isn’t all that good at 13-17 in 30 games played.

The Lakers simply have to win here, going 0-for-2 in the first two games of the trip would be really demoralizing. The race for the 2nd seed is heating up in the Western Conference, you have to beat the bad teams to give yourself the best chance of getting it. I’ll take Luka and co. to cover here.

Lakers vs Nets prediction: Lakers -6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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In an unusual back-to-back, the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder will meet again just 24 hours after OKC’s dominant 127-103 win on Sunday. Oklahoma City extended its winning streak to seven games, and while both teams have to adjust quickly, this quick turnaround will be fascinating to watch. The Thunder’s defense has been elite all season, ranking No. 1 in the league with an efficiency of 105.6, a significant gap over second-place Clippers (109.5). This presents a major challenge for Denver, as they thrive in transition. However, OKC is incredibly effective in transition defense which could neutralize Denver’s strength. 

The Nuggets will also need to control their turnovers. Denver ranks in the bottom half of the league for turnovers (14.2 per game), and OKC is the best team at capitalizing on opponent mistakes, generating 22.2 points per game off turnovers. Despite the tough loss, the Nuggets have historically done well on the second night of back-to-backs, posting a 9-3 ATS record. With a tired but motivated Denver squad looking to bounce back and a MVP-caliber performance expected from Nikola Jokic, the 9-point spread for Oklahoma City seems too large. Expect a strong response from Denver, even on short rest.

Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction: Nuggets +9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number

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The Orlando Magic were able to end a 5-game losing streak in their last outing against the Milwaukee Bucks, but could find themselves in the losing column once more as they visit the Houston Rockets tonight. The Rockets have been terrific at home so far this season, putting together a 21-10 record. They are also in the top 10 of the league in points differential at home, with it currently standing at 5.5. While Amen Thompson is a fresh injury concern for the hosts, they will be able to turn to Cam Whitmore to make up those minutes. The forward repaid the Rockets the last time he was given over 30 minutes of playing time by dropping 27 points on the Oklahoma City Thunder. He should step up tonight too.

Floor spacing continues to be an issue for the Magic. Over the last 10 games they are the only team in the NBA who are averaging under 10 made three pointers per game. During that stretch the Rockets are 3rd in the league in opponent 3-point percentage and will be well positioned to shut down this part of the Magics offense. The Rockets have shown a tendency to go with big lineups in recent games, with a pair of Alperen Sengun, Steven Adams and Jabari Smith Jr. often sharing the court together. This should allow them to pack the paint tonight too, making it tough for the visitors to finish inside. Back the Rockets to over the spread as a result.

Orlando Magic vs Houston Rockets Prediction: Rockets -5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Rockets -6.

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The Memphis Grizzlies will aim to break their four-game home losing streak tonight with a win over the Phoenix Suns. Both the Grizzlies and Suns are playing tonight in the second game of a back-to-back. Memphis defeated the New Orleans Pelicans last night 107-104. Ja Morant led the Grizzlies in scoring with 32 points, and Desmond Bane added on with 30 points. The Suns are coming off a 125-116 win in Dallas against the Mavericks last night. Devin Booker and Kevin Durant combined for 45 points against the Mavericks who were limited due to injury. Phoenix currently is in the 11th seed, and they are 1.5 games out of the play-in tournament. At this point in the season, every win matters for the Suns.

In Sunday’s matchup against the Mavericks, the Suns were able to take advantage of the injuries the Mavericks had in their front court. The Suns’ big men are often outmatched in games, but with injuries to the Maverick’s starting center and power forward, the Suns were able to win the rebound battle by 14. The Suns will be looking for a similar advantage tonight against the Grizzlies who will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. With Jackson out of the lineup, offense will come from the perimeter and guards. The Suns shot an outstanding 58.3 percent from the field against Dallas and have looked rejuvenated in the past week. Right now, the Grizzlies are in a slump from the perimeter. The Grizzlies were able to find a way to win Sunday despite shooting 13 of 49 from three. Ja Morant has only shot 18% from three-point range in his last nine games. The Suns have been the better shooting team as of late, giving the Suns the slight advantage tonight with both teams coming in with little rest.

Suns vs Grizzlies prediction: Suns +4.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The New York Knicks take on the Sacramento Kings as they continue their challenging Western Conference road trip. The Knicks are facing a tough spot following an injury to their star guard, Jalen Brunson, who is expected to miss at least two weeks with an ankle issue. Meanwhile, the Kings are hoping to climb out of the Play-In Tournament picture, but they’ll be without their own star, Domantas Sabonis, due to a hamstring injury. Malik Monk, however, could return after missing Sunday’s game against the Clippers. Brunson’s absence is a significant blow for New York, as he’s the focal point of their offense. Without him, the Knicks will need to rely on others to step up, especially in terms of playmaking and scoring. This could be an opportunity for players like Karl-Anthony Towns and Cameron Payne to increase their involvement. 

For Sacramento, the absence of Sabonis is a major challenge. The All-Star big man is not only a top rebounder but also a critical playmaker for the Kings. Without him, Jonas Valanciunas has been forced to play extended minutes, but he faces a difficult matchup against the versatile Knicks’ big men, especially Towns. The Knicks have struggled recently, losing three in a row, and are 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 games. However, this could be a good spot for them to bounce back against a Kings team that has been poor as an underdog (6-12 straight up).

Knicks vs Kings Prediction: Knicks -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number

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