College Basketball Picks

Rutgers and Wisconsin face off in a key Big Ten matchup that could shape the Scarlet Knights’ season. Coming in with high expectations thanks to 2 potential NBA lottery picks, Rutgers has underwhelmed so far with 6 losses and only a handful of quality wins. However, the Knights’ upcoming 3-game home-stand against Wisconsin, Purdue and UCLA provides an opportunity to turn things around.

Wisconsin has been strong overall, boasting a 9-1 record as a favorite — but it has struggled on the road, going 0-2 away from the Kohl Center this season. On the other hand, Rutgers is undefeated at home (7-0) but has yet to secure a win as an underdog (0-4). This game features some intriguing matchups. Wisconsin thrives at the free-throw line, leading the country in both free-throw percentage (85.4%) and free-throw attempt rate. However, Rutgers is disciplined defensively — ranking 37th in the nation in limiting opponents’ free-throw attempts. If Rutgers star Dylan Harper returns from illness, his ability to attack the lane could exploit a Wisconsin defense that hasn’t been as sharp as usual.

With small spread favorites (1-3 points) clipping at 64% last week ATS (season average 42%), these favorites are due for regression. This feels like the perfect spot for the Scarlet Knights. Look for Rutgers to leverage its home-court advantage.

Wisconsin vs Rutgers prediction: Rutgers ML (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.

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The Ohio State Buckeyes will travel to Minneapolis on Monday night to play a Big Ten Conference game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Ohio State is looking to bounce back from a home loss to Michigan State last time out. Minnesota will look to gain its first conference win after starting league play 0-3. The spread is currently set for -5.5 in favor of Ohio State, but my best bet of the game is the under with total is set at 137 points.

Minnesota is saddled with one of the worst offenses in the country and plays at a very slow pace. The Golden Gophers are ranked #290 nationally in points per game and #296 in 3-point percentage, so it may have a difficulty time scoring on Ohio State. According to KenPom, Minnesota is ranked #360 in adjusted tempo and #334 in average offensive possession length. The Buckeyes rank outside the top 170 in adjusted tempo and outside the top 200 in average offensive possession length, so I see this game slow enough for the total to stay under.

Ohio State vs Minnesota prediction: Under 137 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 135.

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Houston has been able to get it done on both sides of the court so far this season, and I don’t think it will have too much trouble against TCU this evening. In the 14th-ranked Cougars’ last game they faced a conference opponent, BYU, that has a prolific offense and was held to just 55 points in the matchup with Houston. As Houston gets ready to take on another Big 12 Conference opponent, I think it is more than capable of getting it done and covering the big spread.

Houston boasts the best defense in all of college basketball, right above Tennessee this season — giving up just 54.6 points per game. Over the several years we have seen Houston’s defense swarm their opponents, forcing them to take shots that aren’t there — but the one thing that has plagued them is their offense. This year the Cougars have been an exceptional offensive team of late. During their last six games they are averaging 75.3 points per game and holding their opponents to just 49.1 points. The 18.5 points that Houston is favored by is a large line to cover against a Big 12 opponent, but the Cougars have proven they are one of the toughest teams to score against and should be able to keep TCU in line — as the Frogs only average 72.4 points per game this season. BYU was averaging 84.8 before heading into their matchup against Houston and was held to just 55 points. TCU also has a strong defense, especially on the perimeter, and likes to move at a slower pace — but so does Houston. I think TCU will play right into this Houston defense’s hands and will turn the ball over a bunch of times. That’s why I think Houston will blow this game open, making it my best bet of the day. 

TCU vs Houston prediction: Houston -18.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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