College Basketball Picks

We turn to the ACC bubble teams on Monday for a North Carolina Tar Heels vs Florida State Seminoles prediction. Both teams are trying to make a late push for the NCAA Tournament, and neither can really afford a loss down the stretch. For UNC, the metrics seem to like them, but if you have ever bet on them, you probably don’t. While they have won 4 of their last 5 down the stretch, they never seem to beat a good team. Florida State isn’t exactly one of the good teams though, although they are strong at home, going 10-4 this season. If they win out, it would include games against North Carolina, Duke and SMU, which would force some attention their way, but they really need all of those. That this spread only favors UNC by a couple of points seems very suspicious, and I expect the public to flood the Tar Heels side for this one. That has me concerned and I think the smarter play on Monday is to chase the very high point total. My UNC vs Florida State prediction is the game total over 156.

The thing I feel most confident about in this game is that both teams want to play with pace, and neither team will take or make a lot of threes. That means this is a game where both teams will try to get downhill, attack the rim and try to get into their defenders. I expect a lot of layups and free throws, and probably a fair number of quick transition buckets before a defense gets set. UNC is better at those things, but when we have a situation where both teams are trying to attack quickly, the score should escalate. I think we end up with a game in the 80s here, so I’ll play the Over, even though 156 is a scary high number.

North Carolina vs Florida State prediction: Over 156 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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No. 12 Michigan will be hitting the road to face their Big Ten opponent, Nebraska, in hopes to rebound from their tough home loss against Michigan State, where they were bested 75-62.  Nebraska is looking to rebound from their loss to Penn State last week, and with only 4 games left, the Cornhuskers sit in 9th place in the Big Ten standings, hoping to gain some ground before the conference tournament. The Wolverines are only a half-game back from first place in the Big Ten standings, and with 5 games left, they know how critical each game is. Tonight, I believe Michigan is in a prime position to pull off a small upset on the road as they battle for first place in the Big Ten.

Nebraska has to be a little concerned heading into tonight’s matchup, especially since one of their bigs, Berke Buyuktuncel, is going to be a game-time decision due to an ankle injury. Without Buyuktuncel at 100%, it’s going to be tough for Nebraska to compete for rebounds as Michigan has two 7-footers in their lineup, Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf. This Wolverines team has been really efficient on offense, averaging 80.8 points per game, whereas Nebraska is averaging 75.7 points per game. Playing on the road isn’t easy in the Big Ten, but Michigan has the better offense and defense, plus they’ll have a size advantage in tonight’s matchup that gives them an edge.  Michigan has 5 players averaging double digits this season, which gives them a slight advantage on offense, but if they want to win, this defense will need to find a way to slow down Brice Williams. I think Michigan has what it takes to pull off a road victory in tonight’s matchup, and they should be able to grab plenty of rebounds that should give them second-chance looks. Look for the Wolverines to win this game outright, but it’s worth taking the extra point as a little insurance.

Michigan vs Nebraska prediction: Michigan +1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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One of the best games on the weekday college basketball slate comes in the Big 12 on Monday, where the Houston Cougars are set to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Lubbock, in a clash of the conference’s best teams. On paper, Houston is the better team in this matchup, and I wouldn’t disagree that the Cougars have the higher floor between these programs this season. With that said, I’m optimistic for Texas Tech to hang with Kelvin Sampson’s bunch at United Supermarkets Arena, especially since we just saw Texas Tech go into Houston and emerge with a victory back on February 1. The natural angle for some bettors is going to be the impulse to back the Cougars in a road revenge spot, but it’s important to remember that the Red Raiders did beat Houston without the services of star forward JT Toppin, who was controversially ejected in the opening minutes of the first meeting. With that said, even though Houston appears to be moving forward from its injury troubles and Emmanuel Sharp looks to be as healthy as he’s been in well over a month, I’m still inclined to back the Red Raiders as home underdogs in this one. 

Texas Tech has established itself as a clear top-10 team since the turn of the calendar year (6th at KenPom, 7th at Barttorvik), and a healthy Red Raiders team can compete with any unit in the country. This is a team that can generate easy offense and has the capability to also hit tough shots, which is a major key against a ferocious Houston defense that makes things extraordinarily hard on opposing guards. The Red Raiders offense is one that doesn’t turn the ball over much, and it also thrives against defenses that don’t guard the three-point arc very well (14th in three-point percentage). It just so happens that Houston has really struggled in that department this season, as the Cougars are ranked 322nd in three-point rate allowed and 288th in three-point percentage defense (Barttorvik). It’s also worth mentioning that Houston’s defense is 339th in free-throw rate allowed, and we can expect the Red Raiders to hang around in this game and potentially even get a few favorable calls down the stretch in front of their home fans. For as good as the Cougars are, Houston has still been extremely fortunate to emerge victorious in road games against Kansas and Arizona over the last month. I believe Houston’s unblemished road record finally takes a hit against an excellent Texas Tech team on Monday.

Houston vs Texas Tech prediction: Texas Tech ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable to +110.

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