College Basketball Picks

The Pittsburgh Panthers will take on the LSU Tigers in the opening game of the Greenbrier Tip-Off, located in West Virginia. Both teams are unblemished coming into this contest, with all but 1 win coming by double digits. This should be an intriguing matchup between 2 power conference teams in their first major tests of the year. Pittsburgh has been impressive on both ends of the floor, rating in the top 25 on both offense and defense, per KenPom. It’s been the defense that’s been especially impressive, as they look like a group that can morph into what coach Capel wants them to be on any given night due to their versatile skill sets. The Panthers also take care of the ball at a high level, which will be key against an athletic defense like the LSU Tigers. Led by Jaland Lowe and Ishmael Leggett, the better backcourt looks to be with Pittsburgh.

While LSU is undefeated, they haven’t had necessarily inspiring performances. They struggled to break away from low major teams in Charleston Southern and Alabama State, winning by just 9 and 13 respectively. They do have a win on the road against Kansas State, but that win doesn’t look all that impressive due to the Wildcats’ recent performances. LSU has also been fortunate when it comes to defending the 3-point line, as they are the best 3-point defense in the country (19.4% allowed), but they rate in the 65th percentile in unguarded catch and shoot frequency (Synergy). Pittsburgh is a team that is flying under the radar to begin the season. And while this number is up 2 points from the opener of -4.5, we should be able to trust the Panthers to get the job done late in this game with their elite ball security.

Pittsburgh vs LSU prediction: Pittsburgh -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The #19 ranked Wisconsin Badgers and the UCF Knights will face off on Friday evening for a non-conference showdown in West Virginia. This game is a part of a 4-team event called the Greenbrier Tip Off. It should be a great matchup between 2 undefeated teams on CBS Sports Network at 5:00 pm ET. The Badgers are the higher-ranked team coming into the game after upsetting Arizona last week, but our best bet is for UCF to cover the +5.5 spread.

The Knights are an underrated team in the Big 12 and boast a big victory over Texas A&M already this year. They already have a ranked win under their belt and should be able to keep this one close. The Badgers had a massive letdown game following their Arizona win, only beating UT Rio Grande Valley but 3 points. Their offense has been carrying them by scoring 79 points or more in every game, but UCF has proven it can win high-scoring games; it beat FAU 100-94 in its third game of the year. UCF has proven to be effective as an underdog and should be able to cover the spread again as a ‘dog. Last season the Knights were 10-6 ATS as underdogs and are 1-0 already as such this year. I’m taking UCF to cover.

Wisconsin vs UCF prediction: UCF +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.

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The Houston Cougars are ranked 7th in the AP Poll and they are gearing up to face the Hofstra Pride on Friday night to play their first game since November 13. Houston was able to handle Louisiana without any issues, winning 91-45. Hofstra is looking to rebound from a 79-61 loss to Florida State. Houston is clearly the better team on paper, both offensively and defensively, but this Hofstra team has already had a few surprising wins this season by beating Seton Hall and UMass. UH will apply a tremendous amount of pressure in this game, and it’s important to know that it has forced 56 turnovers so far this season (18.7 per game). If Hofstra wants any hope of keeping this game close, it needs to be careful and limit the number of turnovers (average 14.6 per game).

Jean Aranguren leads Hofstra with 18.0 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. He will be doing everything he can to give his team a chance to win tonight. As Houston will most likely keep pressure on Aranguren, that opens the door for Jaquan Sanders (14.6 ppg) and Cruz Davis (14.6 ppg), which could help keep Hofstra in this game against an elite Houston defense. The Cougars feature a lot of depth and have multiple players who are averaging double-digits so far this season. Houston averages 85.7 points per game, but Hofstra’s defense is giving up just 67.2 points per game. Hofstra has to be excited to be taking the floor against Houston. UH’s defense will give Hofstra a lot of trouble, but we have seen how scrappy this Hofstra team can be. I think Hofstra will lose this game, but it could stay somewhat close if it limits turnovers — making that my best bet of the day. 

Hofstra vs Houston prediction: Hofstra +28 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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While it feels like the entire college basketball landscape is playing neutral-site MTEs (multi-team events) this weekend, Nebraska and Creighton will meet on the hardwood at CHI Health Center in Omaha – the home of the Bluejays. Creighton is a perfect 4-0 this season and has yet to leave the friendly confines of its home gym, while Nebraska faces its first true road test of the season. However, this isn’t the first time the Cornhuskers have left home, as they played in a neutral-site tilt in South Dakota against Saint Mary’s on Sunday. The ‘Huskers lost that game and are 3-1 this season, but playing the Gaels right before the Bluejays should serve as solid preparation heading into this in-state rivalry game. 

Creighton loves to play with pace and relies heavily on perimeter shots. However, the Bluejays haven’t been particularly efficient from deep outside of Steven Ashworth, connecting on just 31.5% of those attempts as a team. Their turnover rate is also a bit concerning given the level of competition they have faced to this point, as they rank 188th in that department despite playing a strength of schedule that ranks 356th per KenPom. Nebraska will be a significant step-up in class compared to the teams Creighton has played thus far, especially on the defensive end. The Cornhuskers have rangy defenders on the wings, and they have size in the frontcourt to match Ryan Kalkbrenner. On the other side of the court, Nebraska does not rely heavily on the three. However, the Cornhuskers should find success in the mid-range against Creighton’s drop coverage. Additionally, the turnover woes that plagued Nebraska against Saint Mary’s are unlikely to be as big of an issue against a Bluejay defense that has never been one to force a ton of turnovers under Greg McDermott. That trend has continued into this season, as the Bluejays rank 321st in turnover rate on the defensive end according to KenPom. If Ashworth is going to be the only reliable shooter for Creighton in this game, then Nebraska should have enough to stay within the number through its defensive efficiency and ability to disrupt the passing lanes. 

Nebraska vs Creighton prediction: Nebraska Cornhuskers +10.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to +10. 

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There isn’t much that separates Duke and Arizona in the AP rankings this season, and as both teams come into this game with a loss a piece, this game could play a significant role in where they stand in the rankings come next week. Duke is coming off an 86-35 win over Wofford and Arizona will be looking to rebound from its first loss of the season, a 103-88 setback against Wisconsin. 

Duke barely had any competition against Wofford, and tonight’s matchup will be completely different against an Arizona team that forces 15.7 turnovers per game. Duke has arguably one of the best players in all of college basketball, Cooper Flagg, who averages 16.3 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. The Wildcats feature Jaden Bradley, who averages 14.7 points per game, but there is one player that everyone will really need to keep an eye. Tobe Awaka contributes 9.3 points and 12.3 rebounds per game.  Arizona averages 57 rebounds per game, whereas Duke averages 46.3; that could play a big role in tonight’s matchup if Arizona gets a lot more second-chance opportunities. Not much separates these 2 teams, and despite Duke having a disadvantage in terms of rebounds and averaging only 88.5 points per game compared to Arizona’s 94.3, I still think Duke has the advantage because of its defense. The ‘Cats just let Wisconsin score 103 points against them, and Duke only gives up 58 points per game whereas Arizona is allowing 70.3 per game. Look for Flagg and the rest of this Blue Devils offense to find plenty of opportunities to score against Arizona’s defense.

Duke vs Arizona prediction: Duke +1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It is not often that bettors pay attention to Hawaii basketball, but with the Tar Heels in town, we are here with a North Carolina vs Hawaii prediction. The game does not tip off until 12:30 am for the east coasters, so get ready for a late one. The Tar Heels enter 2-1, with their only loss coming in a thriller at Kansas. The Rainbow Warriors are 4-0, but obviously Carolina is their biggest test of the season. Does the long trip to Honolulu cause problems for the potent Tar Heel offense? The spread sits at -16 at most books, and I can see a path for Hawaii to cover — but I prefer the game total in this one. I think we see some scoring, so my North Carolina vs Hawaii pick is Over 151.5.

We know Carolina can score. The Heels boast one of the most potent offenses in the country, led by RJ Davis. They like to push the pace, and KenPom registers them as the 13th-fastest team in terms of tempo as well as the 6th in offensive efficiency. Hawaii plays much slower, but with North Carolina showing some defensive vulnerabilities in the early stages of the season, the Rainbow Warriors should be able to do their fair share of scoring. If Hawaii can keep this game competitive, it would likely be because it is scoring with the Tar Heels and push this game into the upper 70s. If Hawaii gets blown out, it should be in the 90-60 range, giving us a shot at covering. I see very little chance that this game chickens out in the 60s with Carolina involved. I think the safest play is backing the offenses in this one.

North Carolina vs Hawaii prediction: Over 151.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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