NBA Picks

The Phoenix Suns are getting dangerously close to missing the playofs. With 6 games left in the regular season, the Suns are currently 1 game back of the Sacramento Kings and the 10th seed. Phoenix has lost its last 4 games, but good news for the visitors is that the Kings are also currently on a losing streak. The Suns have a difficult remaining schedule that starts tonight against the Boston Celtics. The Celtics were on a 9-game winning streak before falling to the Miami Heat on Wednesday via a 124-103 decision. The second seed is almost a guaranteed lock for the Celtics. They will be looking to gear up and get ready for the postseason in the final remaining games.

The Suns will have to get it done without Kevin Durant, who is sidelined with an ankle injury. He is expected to return soon but will miss tonight’s game against Boston. Durant was active the last time these 2 teams met. On March 26 the Celtics defeated the Suns in Phoenix 132-102. The Suns allowed Boston to shoot 50% from the field and 42% from the 3-point range in the loss. Jaylen Brown is the only Celtic that is currently listed on the injury report. He has been playing through a bone spur in recent games and is again listed as questionable tonight. Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford have all previously missed time, but they have all been removed from the injury report prior to tonight’s game. The Suns have struggled to win consistently all year long, but with Durant out of the lineup they have had problems winning at all. PHX is 2-12 when Durant is sidelined this season and both of those 2 wins came against the Utah Jazz. Even with each added importance of each game, the Suns have yet to prove they can win or even compete without their star.

Suns vs Celtics prediction: Boston -14 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The San Antonio Spurs are coming into this game after a surprise win against the Denver Nuggets, although their opponents in that game were shorthanded. They will not have the same luxury tonight, when they welcome a Cleveland Cavaliers club that look to have all of their starters available for this one. The visitors still have not clinched the Eastern Conference, so look for them to come in motivated to get a step closer to that so that they can finally start looking ahead to the playoffs. These sides met at the end of March and the lack of size the Spurs had inside was an issue, as they allowed Jarrett Allen a game high 29-points. Look for the Cavs to be able to exploit this once more.

The Spurs have been able to squeeze out wins, but their form suggests they might not be able to sustain this. Over the last 10 games they are 23rd in the league in net offensive and defensive rating. Even if they force misses tonight, over the same stretch of games they are just 22nd in opponent second-chance points per game. The Cavaliers have scored at least 120 points in each of their last 6 games and should be able to use this to smash beyond that mark. With the Spurs in the bottom 10 of the league over the last 10 games in true shooting percentage, it should be hard for them to keep this one competitive.

Cavaliers vs Spurs prediction: Cleveland -13 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -14.

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The Oklahoma City Thunder will be trying to extend their winning streak to 12 games when they visit the Houston Rockets on Friday night. Oklahoma City has also won 18 of its last 19 games, overtaking Cleveland for the best record in basketball with room to spare. However, going on the road and giving 6.5 points to the Rockets is not an entirely safe proposition. As such, I’m turning my attention to the game total for this Thunder vs Rockets pick and I’m going with the over. These 2 Western Conference rivals have already faced each other 4 times this season and 3 meetings have resulted in at least 233 points — including 1 with 265. The only exception was a neutral-site showdown in Las Vegas during the NBA Cup, so than aberration is easily explained. The norm for these teams is clearly high-scoring affairs.

More of the same should be in store for Friday. The Thunder have scored at least 119 points in 5 consecutive contests and in 8 of the last 9. Jalen Williams is back after missing 8 games last month and has contributed 18 points or more in 4 straight outings upon his return, including 23 in each of the past 2. Meanwhile, the Rockets have put up at least 121 points in 4 of their last 5 games — including a 148 and 143 in 2 of the their last 3. Jalen Green (21.5 ppg) has exceeded his season average in 9 of the last 12 contests. It’s the over for me.

Thunder vs Rockets prediction: Over 228.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 230.

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The Denver Nuggets enter this matchup with a rest advantage, as Golden State is playing on the second night of a back-to-back. With the Western Conference standings tightly packed — only 1.5 games separating these 2 teams — the Warriors might push their stars to suit up, but fatigue could be a factor. Beyond the rest advantage, Denver also holds a clear matchup edge primarily due to Nikola Jokic. Golden State’s smaller lineup has consistently struggled against elite scoring big men, and Jokic has dominated this head-to-head series. Over his last 10 games against the Warriors he has averaged 31.7 points.

Golden State lacks a true physical counter to Jokic in the paint. Rookie Quinten Post, the only listed center, is significantly lighter than Jokic and has limited experience. Kevon Looney and Trayce Jackson-Davis, both undersized for the matchup, will likely face an uphill battle trying to contain the reigning MVP. While the Warriors rely heavily on 3-point shooting (fourth in 3s), they sit just 16th in offensive efficiency. Denver, meanwhile, has the fourth-best OE rating — making it the more well-rounded team. I’ll take the Nuggets with the rest advantage.

Nuggets vs Warriors prediction: Denver ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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Shutting down CJ McCollum and Zion Williamson for the season signaled the end of the Pelicans ambitions for this year. They’ve now scored under 100 points in 3 straight games, which is a direct result of that decision. This team cannot go up nor down in the West standings as they’re locked into 14th position. Against the Lakers on Friday they are 14-point underdogs, but with the way they’ve shot the three-ball lately I’m not sure they can cover that. New Orleans made just 4 threes in their loss to the Clippers the other day, it was their 3rd straight game of less than 10 threes made. Their head-to-head record vs the Lakers reads 5 straight defeats, they’ve gone 1-4 ATS in those 5 games.

LA is playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back here following last night’s loss to the Warriors. It was an intense game for the Lakers, so we could very well see some changes in the line-up for tonight’s game. That doesn’t mean they’ll take this game lightly though as the seeding in the Western Conference is far from over. The Lakers have won 16 of 20 home games, they’ve also covered in 10 of 11 games against Western Conference opponents. Austin Reaves and LeBron James both caught fire from beyond the arc last night, if that translates to Friday’s game it will be a wrap for the Pelicans. The last time these 2 met in Los Angeles the Lakers came out on top by 21 points and that’s with Zion Williamson scoring 37 for the Pels. With him out of the line-up they just won’t have enough to compete here. I’ll take the Lakers and the spread.

Pelicans vs Lakers prediction: Los Angeles -14 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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