NBA Picks

With a comfortable 3-0 lead heading into Game 4 on Monday, the Cavaliers have just one thing on their mind and that is to close this thing out and not give the Heat any life. A 37-point lead in Game 3 without Darius Garland and a mediocre game from Donovan Mitchell showed just how much of a talent disparity there is in this series. Through 3 games the Cavs are shooting over 50% from the field and are outrebounding the Heat by 6 boards per game. All the 50-50 plays also seem to go Cleveland’s way and the level of hustle displayed by this team hasn’t been matched by their opponent.

Despite traditionally playing well against Cleveland at home (15 wins in the last 20 meetings at Kaseya Center), we didn’t see any of that in Saturday’s clash. The Heat struggled on offense and this series exposed just how limited they are against top-tier defenses. Bam Adebayo is the only player who deserved a pass as he went for 22 points and 9 rebounds in the loss, and for most of those points he had to work very hard and create by himself. It’s not often you see Bam connect on 4 threes in a game and the defense of Cleveland has been hard to penetrate. Things just aren’t looking promising for Miami ahead of Game 4 in South Beach.

Cleveland looks to join their counterpart from the Western Conference, OKC, as the 2nd team to advance to the 2nd round here and they have every right to hope for that. Nothing in this series so far has indicated to me that Miami can avoid elimination here. Even without their 2nd-best player and main playmaker Garland, the Cavaliers destroyed Miami in Game 3. I expect a similar outcome in Monday’s game and for Cleveland to win by double digits.

Cavaliers vs Heat Game 4 prediction: Cavaliers -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game 4 of this Western Conference opening-round series between Steph Curry and the veteran Warriors against the feisty, young and inexperienced Rockets should be an excellent contest, much like what we saw in the first 3 games. So far, this series has adhered to the Zig-Zag Theory, in which the momentum shifts between the home and road teams based on how each performed in the previous game. The idea is that each game in a playoff series is affected by the result of the game that preceded it, which is exactly how every game in this series has gone. It just so happens that I’m going right back to the well with that pattern in Game 4, as I’ll be backing the Rockets to even the series at 2-2 following their defeat on Saturday.

While it was the veteran savvy of the Warriors (and elite shotmaking from Curry down the stretch) that ultimately proved to be the difference in Game 3, I’m expecting a massive bounce-back effort from Houston to even up the series at Chase Center. The Rockets’ shooting woes plagued them again in Game 3, as Houston wasted a chance to take the lead in the series against a Warriors team that was without Jimmy Butler. Houston has been known to fall into prolonged shooting droughts, and that was certainly the case on Saturday, as the Rockets registered just 44 points in the second half of Game 3. Houston shot below 40 percent from the field, had 14 turnovers and was just 14-24 from free-throw line. Despite all of that, Golden State needed an all-time playoff performance from Curry to erase a double-digit Rockets lead en route to a victory. In fact, even with their struggles offensively, there were things Houston did that can certainly be replicated in this matchup, most importantly by dominating the offensive glass. If the Rockets are able to consistently generate a massive edge in the shot-volume department, it’s reasonable to suggest that some of the shots from their supporting cast will start falling and the offense will develop a rhythm.

On the other side, we know Curry is fantastic, but while Butler is cleared to play in this game, I can’t imagine that he will get much run in this matchup given his injury and the Warriors likely wanting to save him for a potentially series-deciding Game 5. Even if Butler does play extended minutes, I can’t imagine that he and Curry will combine for 55 or more points once again in this game. With Golden State’s clear lack of an edge in the paint and on the glass, I’m expecting a hard-nosed, physical game script — one that favors a desperate Houston team in a desperate spot. Let’s take the Rockets to win as short underdogs on the road. 

Rockets vs Warriors prediction: Rockets ML (+145) available at time of publishing. Playable to +140.

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