NBA Picks

The Orlando Magic and the Boston Celtics combined for 198 points in Game 3, but there were plenty of suggestions that the teams can deliver a higher-scoring effort. The game was let down by the scoring of the visitors in the third quarter, where they mustered up just 11 points. The Celtics did, however, see the return of Jayson Tatum to the lineup. Considering he was the leading scorer overall, it seems that missing Game 2 has done him a world of good. The Celtics did end the regular season second in offensive rating, so do not expect to see many games this postseason in which they only have 3 players in double-digits.

Both teams struggled scoring from beyond the arc in Game 3 — making just 25% and 33.3% from 3-point range, respectively. With both being below their season averages, there is scope for them to improve. The home team will be encouraged by the play of Cole Anthony in Game 3, too. The Magic outscored the Celtics by 15 points during his time on the floor. He has proved during his NBA career that he can be an offensive sparkplug. Do not be surprised to see him lead the Magic role players in scoring outside of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner if he gets increased minutes. The Celtics’ bigs struggled to contain Wagner off the dribble, so do not be surprised to see him lead the way for the Magic. This game should reach the 200-point mark as a result.

Celtics vs Magic prediction: Over 197.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 199.5.

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The Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks will play a critical Game 4 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series on Sunday night in Milwaukee. It has been domination by the home teams so far in this series, with the Pacers taking the first 2 games before the Bucks bounced back with a victory on Friday. Only 1 contest has exceeded this 226 number, but that Game 2 showdown blew past this mark with 238 points and no outing has featured fewer than 215 points. The winning side has put up at least 117 points on all 3 occasions. It is also worth looking back on the regular-season head-to-head series between these 2 squads. The point totals were 246, 242, 229 and 245? That’s right–high-scoring affairs left and right. As such, my Pacers vs Bucks pick is Over 226.

Milwaukee scored 117 in Game 3 even though Damian Lillard has not been able to throw the ball in the ocean through 2 appearances after missing more than a month due to blood clotting (6-for-25 from the floor, 3-for-16 from 3-point range). Every chance Lillard gets to see the floor is an opportunity to improve. You have to think the star guard will be much better on Sunday than he was in either Game 2 or Game 3. It’s only a matter of time before Lillard finds his footing. Giannis Antetokounmpo has contributed at least 34 points in all 3 postseason games so far, so just think how dynamic the offense will be once Lillard returns to being his true self. Both teams rank in the top half of the NBA in pace (possessions per game) and neither one plays much defense, so let’s roll with the over for Game 4.

Pacers vs Bucks prediction: Over 226 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 227.

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Once again the Knicks came up big when it mattered the most, and now they have an opportunity to seize control over their series against the Pistons as the 2 teams meet in Game 4 this Sunday. A balanced attack led by KAT with 31 points and Jalen Brunson, who added 30, was the key to Game 3 — along with timely stops on the defensive end. New York built a 13-point lead at the half; that certainly helped calm the Pistons fans, who saw their team host a postseason game for the first time in 6 years. Now the question is can the Knicks deliver the knockout punch. They have now won 9 times in 10 visits to Little Caesars Arena, plus over the last 20 meetings they have lost just 4 times.

The moment just looked too big for this young and inexperienced Pistons team in Game 3. Even though the final score indicates they had a chance to win, the Knicks seemingly had the game under control. Along with the standard numbers of Cade Cunningham, Detroit got solid contributions from Tim Hardaway Jr., Jalen Duren and Dennis Schroder. Game 4 is all about adjustments, and if there’s one thing the Pistons have to do on Sunday, it’s get veteran Tobias Harris going. He averages almost 3 points more in wins this season, while shooting over 50% from the field compared to just 44% in losses. Isaiah Stewart was dearly missed down low; the level of physicality went up a notch as the 2 teams combined to take 56 free-throws on Thursday.

Going down 3-1 likely means the end of the road for the Pistons in Game 5, so they will be playing their hearts out on Sunday just to stay alive. Will that be enough? I believe it will. They have done so many good things this season, their fans at Little Caesars Arena deserve to see at least one win before this series is over. I’m taking the Pistons to level things up at 2-2.

Knicks vs Pistons prediction: Detroit -2 (-110) is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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One of the best series of the opening round of the NBA playoffs has been this Western Conference matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves. So far, this series has adhered to the Zig-Zag Theory, in which the momentum shifts between the home and road teams based on how each performed in the previous game. The idea is that each game in a playoff series is affected by the result of the game that preceded it, which is exactly how every game in this series has gone. It just so happens that I’m going right back to the well with that pattern in Game 4, as I’ll be backing the Lakers to even the series at 2 games apiece following their defeat on Friday.

The biggest detriment to the Lakers on Friday was their offense, specifically a lack of production from Luka Doncic, who was suffering from a stomach illness heading into that contest. Minnesota’s defense is already an elite unit, but Doncic has shown that he can score on the likes of Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, or whoever the Timberwolves throw his way. In the first 2 games back in Los Angeles, Doncic set the tone early and finished with over 30 points in both games. I’d look for a similar trend in this game, especially with a couple of days of treatment for that illness in between Games 3 and 4. Minnesota’s role players are naturally going to play better at home, but I’d expect McDaniels (30 points in Game 3) to come back down to earth a bit on Sunday, especially since JJ Reddick has proven to be an excellent motivator and schematic coach on the defensive side of the ball for Los Angeles.

As for the Lakers offense, Austin Reaves finally showed signs of life from beyond the 3-point arc in Game 3 and LeBron James (38 points in Game 3) can always be trusted to put forth a great effort in a playoff game of this magnitude. The series is effectively over if the Lakers end up falling behind 3-1, so I’m expecting Reddick and the coaching staff to make the necessary adjustments needed to give Los Angeles an edge in this pivotal Game 4.

Lakers vs Timberwolves prediction: Lakers ML (+130) available at time of publishing. Playable to +120

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