College Basketball Picks

The Santa Clara Broncos and the Portland Pilots will face off on Thursday night for a West Coast Conference matchup. Santa Clara snuck into tournament consideration a few weeks ago but fell out of that conversation after back-to-back losses to Oregon State and Saint Mary’s to end January. They are coming off a blowout win against Pacific in their last game, and we expect a similar result here. The spread is currently set at 14 points in favor of Santa Clara, and we see them cover that big spread.

Santa Clara -14 is our best bet of the game because Portland has been one of the worst teams in the country this season. The Pilots have lost by 15 points or more 10 times this season out of their 24 games. They are ranked #345 nationally in opponent points per game according to Team Rankings and will likely struggle to stop Santa Clara’s offense. Santa Clara is ranked #43 in points per game and scored 83 points in their last game. The talent gap between these two teams should be too much for Portland to keep the game close. Take Santa Clara to cover.

*Santa Clara -14 available at time of publishing. Playable at -15*

The Seton Hall Pirates are 1-12 in their last 13 games as they prepare to host the Butler Bulldogs on Wednesday night. To be clear, I would avoid betting on this game like the plague — at the very least until we learn more about the Pirates’ injury situation. Seton Hall has lost 7 in a row and has not won in regulation since December 4 against NJIT. Even when healthy, this team is terrible. At the moment it is dealing with injuries to Chaunce Jenkins, Dylan Addae-Wusu and Scotty Middleton. Those are 3 of their 5 leading scorers. Jenkins and Addae-Wusu are questionable for Wednesday, while Middleton went down with an ankle injury during a 74-57 loss to DePaul this past Saturday and his status is uncertain.

There also isn’t much good to say about Butler — aside from the fact that it gets to play against Seton Hall. The Bulldogs are 9-13 overall and 2-9 in the Big East, but they have at least played better of late. They are 2-3 in their last 5 with wins over Seton Hall and DePaul plus an overtime setback against UConn. Right now the smart Butler vs Seton Hall pick is on the Bulldogs to win and cover. Again, though, it would be wise to wait until Seton Hall’s infirmary report is confirmed.

Butler vs Seton Hall prediction: Butler -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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No.2 Duke looks to continue their dominance in the ACC as they make their way up to New York to take on Syracuse. Heading into this season, Duke fans were hoping for Cooper Flagg to live up to his expectations. Well, if you’re a Duke fan, you have to be happy with the way Cooper Flagg has been performing this season so far.  Flagg is averaging 20 points and 8 rebounds per game, a key role in this Dukes offense, and today, Duke will be giving it their all in hopes they’ll have their chance to move up to number one in the country and to stay undefeated in conference play.  

In Dukes last game against UNC they shot 52.8% from the field, going 10-20 from deep.  Duke was out rebounded in that game 31-26, but that didn’t matter as they were able to force UNC to turn the ball over 14 times and managed to score 19 points off of those turnovers.  As for Syracuse, they’re coming off a win of their own against Cal, breaking a three game skid.  Syracuse isn’t the team they used to be and they’re averaging just 74.2 points per game this season.  Syracuse star J.J. Starling is averaging 17.9 points and 3.8 rebounds per game, and he’s going to need to have a big game to keep this game close against the Blue Devils. Syracuse is 4-7 in conference play, and they really haven’t beaten any solid team yet this season and now they have to take on one of the hottest teams in the country.  Duke is too big and fast for Syracuse to handle, and not to mention Syracuses defense has been horrendous this season giving up 77 points per game. I think Flagg and this Duke team rolls against the Orange, making them my best bet of the night.  

Duke vs Syracuse prediction: Duke -17.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Tennessee Volunteers (18-4) got their revenge on the Florida Gators over the weekend for a 73-43 loss in Gainesville in early January. Without Igor Milicic or Zakai Zeigler, the Vols pretty much flipped the game script 180 degrees the other way and defeated the Gators by 20 while holding them to 0.69 points per possession. It was the first top 10 win of the season for the Volunteers, who will welcome the Missouri Tigers (17-4) to Knoxville on Wednesday night. 

On the season as a whole, Missouri’s effective field goal percentage drops about 10% when the Tigers play outside of the friendly confines of Mizzou Arena. However, road wins at Florida and most recently at Mississippi State show what this offense is capable of. Missouri scored at least 1.2 points per possession in both of those games, thanks to 26 combined made threes. Now they will meet an elite Tennessee defense in another difficult road atmosphere, but the Volunteers give up a ton of perimeter shots. In fact, they are 343rd nationally in three-point rate allowed, giving up a perimeter jump shot on nearly 46% of opposing shot attempts. Caleb Grill, who shoots 49% from deep on 100 attempts and has made 11 out of 20 in his last 2 games, should get plenty of looks in this one. Don’t be mistaken, I am not down-playing how good this Tennessee defense is. The Volunteers have one of, if not the most efficient defense in the country, but giving up a healthy amount of perimeter looks seems to be their Achilles heel on that end of the floor. 

On the offensive end, Tennessee often leaves a bit to be desired. The Volunteers are 12th in the SEC in offensive efficiency, 14th in effective field goal percentage and 14th in scoring – averaging just 66.4 points per game against conference opponents. Tennessee’s offensive inconsistencies make it hard for me to back this team when it’s laying points against a strong defensive opponent, which is exactly the type of team they will play on Wednesday night. Missouri carries a top 25 defensive efficiency in 6 games against top 30 teams this season, and has been particularly good at forcing turnovers in those games (13th in turnover rate). Moreover, the Tigers have defended well against drive-and-kicks and various actions out of the post like inside-outs, high-lows and pick-and-rolls – all areas in which Tennessee wants to attack offensively. 

This figures to be a low-scoring game. Given how hit-or-miss this Tennessee offense has been, and how quickly Missouri’s offense can catch fire, I am going to take the points with the Tigers. I’m not sure that they’re going to spring an upset like they did in Gainesville, but they should have enough on both ends to stay within the number.

Missouri vs Tennessee prediction: Missouri Tigers +9 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +7.5.

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Creighton has been one of the hottest teams in the Big East since the New Year as they’ve won 7 of their last 8 games. In Creighton’s last 8 games, they’re averaging 75.4 points per game while giving up 65.3 per game.  Providence on the other hand has struggled to find a rhythm and they just suffered a tough loss against No.15 ranked St. John’s on Saturday losing just by 2 points.  Creighton is second in the Big East with a 9-2 conference record, and Providence is seventh with a 5-6 in conference play. Tonight, I think Providence is going to struggle against Creighton and won’t be able to keep up with the Bluejays and here’s why.

Back on January 14, Creighton crushed Providence on their home court by a final score of 84-64. Creighton is not afraid to play on the road as they’ve beaten UConn, Depaul, Butler, and Nova on the road in their last eight games.  Creighton has found their rhythm on offense and a big part of that is from the 7’ 1” senior, Ryan Kalkbrenner who is averaging 18.5 and 8.4 rebounds per game and Steven Ashworth who is averaging 16.3 points and 6.8 assists per game.  Providence is going to have to try and find a way to keep pace with Creighton’s duo and they’ll be looking towards Bryce Hopkins who’s averaging 17 points and 7.7 rebounds per game.  It’s never easy to play at Providence, but I think Creighton is going to be too much for the Friars to handle tonight giving the way they’ve been playing, making the Bluejays my best bet of the day. 

Creighton vs Providence prediction: Creighton -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Arkansas Razorbacks (13-8) earned a very emotional win on Saturday in John Calipari’s return to Rupp Arena. Both teams being without starting guards, Woo Pig Sooie was simply better than the Kentucky Wildcats on the offensive end of the floor. The Razorbacks made 52% of their three-point attempts, scoring 1.22 points per possession and turning the ball over just 8 times. They were also very good inside the arc, converting on 57.6% of those two-point attempts. Arkansas has now won 2 of its last 3, but has to make the journey to Austin on Wednesday for its 2nd consecutive road game in what I consider a let down spot against the Texas Longhorns (15-7). Since losing its first 3 conference games, Texas has found a groove. The Longhorns have won 4 of their last 6, including a victory over a surging Missouri squad and a massive comeback win over in-state rival Texas A&M.

Given how much emotion and energy was spent in their win over Kentucky on Saturday, I think fading the Razorbacks in Austin is the way to go on Wednesday night. Their perimeter shooting should quickly regress back to the mean against Texas, as the Razorbacks have made fewer than 29% of their perimeter attempts against SEC opponents – and that includes what they did in Lexington. The Longhorns have the 2nd-lowest three-point rate allowed in conference play, and their defense as a whole has clamped down over the last couple of weeks – giving up more than 70 points just once in their last 4 games. Offensively, Texas should have success off the dribble, in transition and getting to the free throw line – where they lead the SEC in shooting percentage (81.3%). I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a positive perimeter shooting performance for the Longhorns against an Arkansas defense that allows SEC opponents to hit nearly 38% of their three-point attempts. Lay it with the ‘Horns.

Arkansas vs Texas prediction: Texas Longhorns -7 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -8.

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In a Missouri Valley Conference showdown, the Belmont Bruins will visit the Bradley Braves on Wednesday night. Both of these teams are currently in the top half of the MVC standings, but the Bruins and Braves have each lost back-to-back games. In what will be a rematch from January 21st (Bradley won 89-77), I expect Bradley to bounce back on their home floor and complete the regular season sweep over Belmont.

Bradley has been one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country all season long (39.7%, 3rd nationally) but have begun to experience a slump in this area. The Braves are shooting just 28% from beyond the arc in their last 3 contests with 2 of those performances turning into losses, and while you could say they were due for negative regression, this is a Bradley team that has floor spacing capabilities at all 5 positions, making them an extremely tough cover for opposing defenses. The Belmont Bruins’ defense presents a good opportunity for the Braves to “get right” when it comes to shooting the ball, as the Bruins rank 280th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric and have allowed their opponents to shoot 35.9% from 3 this season (294th nationally).

On the defensive end, the Braves have allowed their last 2 opponents to shoot 24-49 from 3-point land (49%), so it is probably fair to say they are due for positive regression on both ends of the floor. Belmont may not be the team to bring this positive regression (36% from 3 this season), but Bradley coach Brian Wardle’s defensive scheme typically allows his teams to defend the perimeter at a high level, as the length he has on the wings has the ability to contest jumpshots well.

Bradley was able to win the first matchup against Belmont with relative ease, and they were able to do this without having a great shooting day. The Braves dominated the glass and the interior the first time around, and I expect them to have similar success in the rematch. Let’s back the motivated Braves to win by a sizable margin on their home floor.

Belmont vs Bradley prediction: Bradley -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.

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The late-night slate takes us to the Mountain West where we have a Colorado State vs New Mexico prediction for you. The Lobos sit atop the Mountain West standings with only one loss, but Colorado State sits just one game back in the loss column. These teams met in December, a game New Mexico won 76-68, a result that largely gives us the -8.5 spread today. Both teams are playing well, with New Mexico winning 4 in a row and being an absolute steamroller at home. Colorado State, though, has won 7 of 8 since the loss to the Lobos, and their only loss came on the road at San Diego State. The Pit is one of the best environments in college basketball, but I suspect this line is a trap, and I think we end up with a close game here. My Colorado State vs New Mexico pick is Colorado +8.5.

The biggest difference between these teams is their pace of play. The Rams are a more deliberate team, while the Lobos are among the fastest teams in the country. In the first matchup, the Rams were able to keep the pace more to their liking, and they did so by controlling the glass and blocking shots. Otherwise, these teams played very close to even. If the Rams can slow the pace somewhat, and if they can limit the second-chance points for the Lobos, I think it is likely they can keep this game close despite the difficult road venue. I love this Lobos team, and I think they win this game, but I suspect it may only be by a couple of possessions.

Colorado State vs New Mexico Prediction: Colorado State +8.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the Stanford Cardinal will face off on Wednesday night for an ACC showdown. This will be the latest game of the night with it tipping off at 11:00pm Eastern Standard Time on ESPNU. Wake Forest will travel across the country for this one and they need to keep stacking wins if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. It should be a great game in Maples Pavilion as the spread suggests, but our best bet of the game is actually on the total in this one.

We like the under in this ACC matchup because both teams play at a slow pace and have not been great on the offensive end. Wake Forest has struggled heavily on the offensive end and that has held them back from winning more games. They are ranked 264th nationally in points per game and are averaging just 63.7 points per game over their last 3 contests. According to KenPom, the Demon Deacons offense is ranked #349 in three-point percentage and #223 in effective field goal percentage. Both teams are ranked in the 200s in adjusted tempo and average offensive possession length, so we see this game being played at a slow pace which will help the total stay under. The total has gone under in just over 63% of their games this year, and we expect that trend to continue. Take the under here in Palo Alto on Wednesday.

Wake Forest vs Stanford prediction: Under 138.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 137

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