NBA Picks

Saturday’s Game 1 between the Pistons and Knicks was one of the most entertaining games of the opening weekend of the NBA Playoffs, and it featured a furious New York comeback in the 4th quarter en route to a double digit victory. In my writing about this series prior to Game 1, I mentioned the youth of this Pistons team, one whose best player doesn’t have any kind of postseason experience at this level. Madison Square Garden is about as difficult of an environment to throw Cade Cunningham into for his first playoff game, and we saw that inexperience shine through for Cunningham and the rest of the Pistons when things completely unraveled in the 4th quarter. Monday’s game is a completely different animal for both teams, as the Pistons no longer have the element of surprise and the Knicks should be able to tweak their gameplan toward what worked (playing in transition, utilizing multiple bigs to hold up on the glass, etc) and what didn’t work on both sides of the ball. Much like we saw for most of the first game, I’m expecting Detroit to stick to its gameplan defensively by sending double-teams at Brunson late in the shot clock, as the point guard was excellent against single coverage looks when those were presented in Game 1. However, Brunson is also extremely adept at getting two feet in the paint and kicking the ball out to open shooters, which should mean plenty of chances for OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns to stay hot from distance, along with good looks for a struggling Mikal Bridges. With Cunningham facing a difficult matchup against Anunoby and the Knicks perimeter defense, I’ll certainly trust Brunson and the ancillary pieces on New York compared to Detroit’s personnel, which gives the Pistons a more limited offensive capacity. 

As I mentioned in my preview for the opening game of the series, teams that tend to win games in the playoff also cover spreads. In fact, after this past weekend’s 7-1 ATS record for straight up winners, they are now on a 5-year run of close to a 90% winning percentage against the spread in the postseason. With that in mind, I’ll continue to follow this trend and lay the points with the Knicks in a game where New York should be more focused from start to finish following Saturday’s scare. 

Pistons vs Knicks prediction: Knicks -6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Clippers had their chances in Game 1 as they led by as many as 15 points, but turnovers killed them, especially late in the game. Kawhi Leonard committed 7 of them, you’d expect a lot more from a player of his stature in games of this magnitude. However, it would be unfair to blame Kawhi alone for the loss, the Clippers will have to do a lot better job in Game 2, especially with getting their bench more involved as they got just 13 points from two players off the pine. The oddsmakers haven’t been rattled too much after the Nuggets won the series opener, they once again have the Clippers as slight favorites to win on the road on Monday.

Other than Michael Porter Jr. who had an off night, the Nuggets got solid contributions from most of their core players and if you’re head coach David Adelman that must feel really good. Especially when it comes to Jamal Murray who had 21, 9 rebounds and 7 assists while playing 48 minutes despite having issues with his hamstring. Nikola Jokic had to work extra hard for his near triple-double of 29 points, 9 rebounds and 12 assists but we expected that heading into the series as he matches up with DPOY candidate Ivica Zubac. Aaron Gordon completely outplayed Kawhi in Game 1, the Nuggets defense was extremely focused in not letting Leonard get easy looks.

Game 1 was hands down the most exciting game on Day 1 of the postseason, I expect nothing less from Tuesday’s game. I was encouraged by the Nuggets winning Saturday’s game despite getting only 3 points from MPJ. That surely will not happen in back-to-back games, I’m rolling with the Joker and co. for Game 2 as well.

Clippers vs Nuggets Game 2 Predictions: Nuggets +1 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

I was really disappointed with the Bucks approach on offense in Game 1, especially in crunch time where they settled for unnecessary threes instead of giving the ball to Giannis and just moving out the way. There is good news on the horizon though as Damian Lillard is expected to return on Tuesday for Game 2. Obviously it’ll take him some time to ramp up as he hasn’t played in over a month, but just having him around will elevate the Bucks to a whole new level offensively. Going just 9-for-37 from three won’t win you many games in the modern NBA, especially not against a tough team like the Pacers.

A crucial 2nd quarter in which the Pacers built up their lead to as much as 28 points ultimately decided Game 1. Indiana looks to separate themselves with another win on Tuesday, but I’m not sure if they can do that without making the necessary adjustments. They cannot afford having Tyrese Haliburton go 3-for-13 from the field and 0-for-7 from three again, plus it’s hard to expect them to commit only 5 turnovers like they did in Saturday’s game. The Bucks will come after him with everything they have here, going down 0-2 in a best of 7 series isn’t something you want if you’re the road team in this game. Indiana already lost once at home to the Bucks during the regular season, so they’ll need to be a bit more cautious with their approach on Tuesday.

Milwaukee wasted a 36 point and 12 rebound game from Giannis in Saturday’s loss, but with Dame at his side I expect the Greek Freak to not allow that to happen again. A lack of ball movement is something that killed Milwaukee in the opener, I expect them to get way more than 15 assists this time around. Pressure is on the Bucks to respond, I expect this series to go the distance, so let’s back the road team to cover here.

Bucks vs Pacers Game 2 Predictions: Bucks +4.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.