College Basketball Picks

The first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament begins in earnest on Thursday with a matchup between the Creighton Bluejays and Louisville Cardinals. From a situational spot perspective, this is a tough draw for Creighton, who will have to travel to Lexington, Kentucky to play what is essentially a true road game against a Louisville team that was pretty clearly underseeded by the selection committee. The Cardinals have advantages on both sides of the ball in this matchup, particularly when it comes to their offense against the unique style of drop coverage Creighton employs with Ryan Kalkbrenner patrolling the paint. With veteran guards Chucky Hepburn and Terrence Edwards Jr. leading the way in the backcourt, Louisville has the shotmaking to take advantage of the Kalk drop, which allows for clean midrange looks from around 15 feet. If the Cardinals do see success at attacking the drop coverage, the passing lanes should open up and there will be shooters open on the perimeter.

On the other side of the ball, Creighton is a solid offense, but this is decidedly not the same team as a year ago in terms of its depth of scoring. The Bluejays are extremely reliant on senior point guard Steven Ashworth to run the show and set up his teammates, in addition to their need for his offense (16.3 points per game). While Ashworth is a very good player, he has exhibited the tendency to be a bit loose with the ball when pressured consistently by high-level competition, which is exactly what I believe Louisville will do throughout this game. Additionally, the Cardinals are top-25 nationally in post-up defense, which obviously looms large when going up against a player of Kalkbrenner’s caliber. Ultimately, I’ll side with the Cardinals to get the job done and advance to the Round of 32.

Creighton vs Louisville prediction: Louisville ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

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One of my favorite games on Thursday’s Round of 64 slate comes in the Midwest Region between the High Point Panthers and Purdue Boilermakers in what should be one of the best showcases for offense in the opening round. Champions of the Big South, High Point boasts one of the deepest mid-major rosters in the nation, including a couple of Power 4 conference transfers littered across the roster that make up one of the best bench units in the country. The Panthers offense is elite (top 25 in adjusted efficiency per KenPom & Barttorvik) and is they can score both on the break and in a halfcourt setting, which is key against a Purdue team that doesn’t like to push the pace all that much, but can still be turnover prone when it has the ball. It wouldn’t shock me at all if the Panthers were able to get to 75 points against a Purdue defense that isn’t exactly setting the world on fire (68th in adjusted efficiency, 293rd in effective field goal percentage defense).

On the other side of the ball, I don’t suspect High Point’s defense to have many answers for the Boilermakers offense (8th in adjusted efficiency). Purdue floor general Braden Smith and power forward Trey Kaufman-Renn — one of the best scoring duos in the nation — should dominate High Point’s drop coverage defense, as the Panthers currently sit at 213th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. In the same vein, Purdue is shockingly dead last in the country in two-point defense (364th) since January 1, a shocking development for a program of its stature. Simply put, the offensive makeup of both of these teams leads me to believe that both sides should be able to generate consistent offense against these underwhelming defenses. While neither team plays at an extremely fast pace, both offenses are among the most efficient in the nation for a reason. Let’s back the over in a game that should be close throughout, and likely won’t feature much defense to speak of.

High Point vs Purdue prediction: Over 153 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 154.

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It’s time for the first round of the NCAA Tournament and we have your Montana vs Wisconsin prediction right here! Wisconsin fell to Michigan by 6 points in the Big Ten Championship, and they’ll be looking to bounce back in this game against the Grizzlies. Montana enters this game on a high note, winning 14 of its last 15 games — which includes a Big Sky Tournament victory over Northern Colorado. Do the Grizzlies have what it takes to pull off an upset? Let’s dive in and find out.

Montana faced only one top-25 team this season against Tennessee, which dominated 92-57. Wisconsin, on the other hand, went 3-3 against top 25 teams this season and has plenty of talent to make a deep run in this year’s tournament. This is a large spread for the Badgers to cover, and even though both teams are efficient on offense, there is a stark difference between defenses. According to KenPom, Wisconsin is ranked 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency with 96 points allowed per 100 possessions. As for Montana, it is ranked 250th by allowing 110.4 points per 100 possessions. Moreover, Wisconsin is a slightly better rebounding team — pulling in 39.9 rebounds per game compared to Montana’s 35. Even though the Grizzlies did not perform well against Tennessee earlier in the year, they are playing at a different level now. Look for Wisconsin to move on in this tournament, but the Grizzlies may do enough to cover the spread — making them my best bet of the day. 

Montana vs Wisconsin prediction: Montana +17 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Houston Cougars will begin their bid for a Final Four run if not even for the National Championship when they face the SIUE Cougars in round 1 of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday in Wichita. It’s not often that you get a spread as high as 28.5 points when the game total is set 125.5 points, but that is the case for this particular showdown. If it turns out to be as low scoring as expected, the Midwest Region’s #1 seed simply may not score enough to cover such a huge number. As a result, my SIUE vs Houston pick is the #16 seed to cover +28.5 points.

Houston is obviously a great team, but it is #357 out of 364 Division I teams in pace of play at 65.6 possessions per game. SIUE is #209 at 69.7. The underdogs will surely be content to play just as slow as their opponent on Thursday, as the shorter the game the better chance a much weaker side has of keeping the score somewhat close. In other words, this could be one of the slowest paces of the entire first round. Houston does not have anyone averaging more than 15.2 ppg (L.J. Cryer), so it’s not like the Big 12 champions are going to run SIUE completely out of the gym right from the start. SIUE kept it within 19 points at then-#17 Indiana very early in the season, which is at least a sort-of encouraging result. It’s hard to have a ton of confidence on any kind of play with a spread this big, but give me SIUE plus the points.

SIUE vs Houston prediction: SIUE +28.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The McNeese Cowboys and the Clemson Tigers will meet on Thursday for round one of the NCAA Tournament. This game will be played in Providence, and it will tip off at 3:15pm Eastern Standard Time. Clemson scored a #5 seed on Selection Sunday after finishing the season 27-6 while McNeese won the Southland Conference to get their bid. The spread is currently at 7.5 points, and we see McNeese covering the spread. Our best bet of the game is McNeese +7.5.

We like McNeese to cover the spread in this one because they are one of the best mid major programs in the country. The Cowboys are riding an 11-game win streak and have lost just one game in 2025. They have proven they can play with the best teams in college basketball as they lost to Alabama by just eight points. Their defense should be able to keep up with Clemson’s offense and keep this game close. According to KenPom, McNeese’s defense is ranked #35 in two-point percentage, #39 in effective field goal percentage and #18 in turnover percentage. Take McNeese to cover here.

McNeese vs Clemson prediction: McNeese +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.

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One of the most anticipated games of Thursday’s March Madness slate comes in the East Region, where the BYU Cougars will take on the VCU Rams in a matchup of two excellent teams in Denver. The one thing that worries me about the Rams in this game is the fact that they just played a very physical game against in-state rival George Mason last Sunday to win the Atlantic 10 conference tournament. Now, the Rams will have to play a slightly more rested BYU team in a setting that the Cougars should be a bit more comfortable win. With that said, I still like VCU to pull off the small upset in this game, so I’ll certainly take the points with the Rams.

Much like a few other contests in the first round, this game features an extreme contrast in styles of play between these two teams. BYU is largely a jump-shooting based team that has the ability to knock down shots from all over the court, thanks to the myriad of quality shooters that head coach Kevin Young can have on the floor at any given moment. Conversely, VCU is a team that prides itself on shutting down its opponents, as the Rams are the top defense in the nation in effective field goal percentage, while also sitting at 4th nationally in 2-point percentage defense. The Rams are also known for their high-pressure defense, which should see consistent success against a BYU team that is no stranger to turning the ball over. BYU is outside the top 200 in turnover percentage on the season, and the Cougars just committed well over 20 turnovers in a recent win over Iowa State (a game where BYU blew a 20-point second half lead). With that in mind, it’s hard not to back a VCU defense that also defends the 3-point very well, which is obviously where this BYU team wants to live. The Rams are also rock solid on the glass (11th in offensive rebounding rate), so they just hold too many advantages for me to overlook them in this matchup.

VCU vs BYU prediction: VCU +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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One of the most interesting matchups of the first round tips off on Thursday evening between #8 Gonzaga and #9 Georgia in Wichita. The battle of the Bulldogs is interesting because Gonzaga is considered to be very underseeded, yet has just 2 top 40 wins per KenPom’s rankings. In fact, KenPom’s same metrics consider Gonzaga to be the 9th-best team in the country. On the other end, we will get to see just how good the depth of the SEC is. Georgia was 8-10 in SEC play, but the ‘Dawgs beat St. John’s, Kentucky and Florida this season – in addition to 4 other wins over tournament teams – and didn’t lose to any team outside the current KenPom top 40.

While I agree Gonzaga is underseeded, I also feel this line is too high. Georgia doesn’t have the best results away from home, but the ‘Dawgs have elite size that can disrupt the ‘Zags in the paint and on the perimeter. Georgia utilizes that size to grab offensive rebounds on about 36% of its misses (16th in offensive rebounding%) and block shots at a top 12 rate nationally. On the perimeter, Silas Demary and Blue Cain are very rangy and get into the passing lanes at a high rate. In all, this Georgia team is bigger and more physical than a vast majority of the teams Gonzaga played this year, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Graham Ike take time to adjust to the size and length with which the Georgia front court plays.

The Zags have good numbers when it comes to their opposing offensive rebounding rate on the season as a whole. However, when you peel back the layers a little bit, you will find that Baylor, West Virginia, Kentucky and UCLA all grabbed at least 12 offensive rebounds against Gonzaga, with Baylor being the only one of the bunch that lost to the ‘Zags. That doesn’t even include Saint Mary’s, who averaged 14.7 offensive rebounds per game in 3 contests with Gonzaga – 2 of which the Gaels won. Georgia should be able to replicate that success on the offensive glass, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the ‘Dawgs at the free throw line a good bit because of their hustle and physicality around the paint. Give me Georgia to keep this one close.

Georgia vs Gonzaga prediction: Georgia +6.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.

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It’s going to be an action-packed Thursday for college hoops, with an exciting matchup as #7 seed Kansas gets ready to take on #10 seed Arkansas. In his first year at Arkansas, head coach John Calipari didn’t envision finishing ninth in the SEC — but to make up for his struggles this year, nothing would be more fulfilling than taking down Kansas in this matchup. It hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing for the Jayhawks, either, as they were sixth in the Big 12 and struggled against conference play — finishing just 2 games above .500. I think the Razorbacks have what it takes to keep this close.

Arkansas will be welcoming back Boogie Fland in this matchup, but one of the biggest questions is: what will his role be? Without Fland, Calipari knew what he had to do to best prepare his team for success. The Razorbacks were able to pull off upsets against then-#12 Kentucky, #15 Missouri, #25 Mississippi State and nearly defeating Auburn, Texas A&M and Alabama. KU head coach Bill Self and this Jayhawks team will need to get creative on how to slow down this Arkansas offense, especially with Fland coming back into the picture. The Jayhawks have Hunter Dickinson, a 7’2” senior averaging 17.6 points and 10 rebounds per game, who I expect to create some issues inside the paint for the Razorbacks — getting them into potential foul trouble. These are 2 experienced head coaches, and with Boogie Fland coming back into the lineup, that gives the Razorbacks an additional weapon off the bench that could create trouble for the Jayhawks. Both teams are similar in terms of offense and Kansas has a slight advantage on defense, but at the end of the day, I think the Razorbacks will do enough to keep this game close and cover the spread — making them my best bet of the day. 

Arkansas vs Kansas prediction: Arkansas +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Yale Bulldogs and the Texas A&M Aggies will face off on Thursday in Denver for round one of the NCAA Tournament. Texas A&M finished the season 22-10 and got a four seed in the big dance. Yale won the Ivy League regular season and conference tournament to give them a 12 seed. Yale beat Auburn last year as a 13 seed and they have a great chance to pull off another upset against an SEC team here. They spread is currently set at 7.5 points and we’ll be taking Yale to cover as our best bet on this game.

Yale should be able to keep this one close because the Bulldogs are going to hone in on limiting Texas A&M’s ability to get offensive rebounds. The Aggies are the best offensive rebounding team in the country, and it leads to a lot of second-chance points for an offense that struggles to hit outside shots. According to KenPom, Texas A&M is ranked #1 in offensive rebounding percentage while Yale’s defense is ranked #22, which gives us optimism that the Bulldogs should be able to limit the Aggies’ second chance points, while also having success from three-point land on offense. After all, Yale is ranked #9 in three-point percentage while Texas A&M’s defense is ranked #154 in that same metric. All things considered, Yale should be able to keep this game close.

Yale vs Texas A&M prediction: Yale +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.

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One of the premiere first round games is the Drake Bulldogs vs the Missouri Tigers on Thursday. Drake might be the trendiest upset pick for people filling out brackets, but I think that is misguided. Drake is, to be sure, one of the better mid-major teams out there, and Missouri has seemed quite vulnerable of late. But I think this is a spot where we are likely to get baited into chasing the underdog, only to find the favorite is a favorite for a reason. My Drake vs Missouri pick is Missouri to cover the 6.5-point spread.

Repeatedly in the first round, the committee paired up teams with very opposite profiles, and maybe none more extreme than this one. Missouri plays elite offense with a vulnerable defense, while Drake plays at the slowest tempo in the entire nation. But the differences go deeper. Missouri attacks in multiple ways, and they can score both inside and outside the arc. Their weakness is their poor defense, led in particular by their poor defensive rebounding. Drake, on the other hand, is an elite rebounding team on the season. But Drake also counts on creating a lot of turnovers, which the Tigers do not typically commit. Personally, I think this Missouri team has flown under the radar, overshadowed by the other SEC juggernauts, and I think Drake is largely untested and maybe overrated. Their non-conference slate was unimpressive, and it boasted wins over Miami (before we knew they were awful), Florida Atlantic (who wasn’t as good as we thought in November), and Vanderbilt. Missouri is going to score, and when they do, I don’t see how Drake continues to drag their feet and play slow. Give me Missouri.

Drake vs Missouri prediction: Missouri -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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One of the most storied programs in college basketball will be playing in one of the mat famous buildings when the UCLA Bruins go up against the Utah State Aggies at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky for an NCAA Tournament first-round showdown on Thursday. I don’t have a whole lot of faith in either side, to be honest. The Mountain West Conference sustained a black eye with San Diego State’s play-in game humiliation at the hands of North Carolina and Utah State suffered 5 MWC regular-season losses before falling to Colorado State by 11 points in the conference semifinals. UCLA (13-7 Big Ten) lost by 16 points to Wisconsin in its conference tournament opener. I feel better about a Utah State vs UCLA pick on the total, and I’m going with Under 144.5.

Both teams like to play at a methodical pace. Utah State ranks #226 nationally in pace of play (possessions per game) at 69.2. UCLA is even slower, almost ranking outside the top 300 (+296 in that department) at 67.7 possessions. The Utes feature only 2 guys averaging more than 8.3 ppg (Ian Martinez, Mason Falslev), while Bruins do not have anyone averaging more than Tyler Bilodeau’s 13.6 ppg. I’m expecting a slow, physical struggle between 2 teams who pay stout defense and rarely fill up the stat sheet.

Utah State vs UCLA prediction: Under 144.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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One of the late window games on Thursday takes us to Providence, Rhode Island for our Omaha Mavericks vs St. John’s Red Storm prediction. Heading into selection Sunday, Omaha was one of those teams I liked as a sneaky upset pick. Once the bracket came out, however, it seemed like they were in one of the worst possible matchups for their style of play. The Johnnies had an historic season under Rick Pitino, and their helter skelter, everybody-guards-everybody style of defense is a thing of beauty. Omaha is completely unprepared for what is about to happen to them, and I fully expect the Red Storm to roll.

Omaha is a perfect representation of what the Summit League was like this year: lots of offense, and no defense to be found. Summit scores were regularly in the 80s and 90s, and Omaha checks in at an unsightly 252nd in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. They do not do anything well defensively except rebound, but St. John’s is a top 10 team in terms of offensive rebounding, and I’m guessing the Johnnies get the better of the Mavs on the glass. Omaha has a couple of talented scorers, but again, this isn’t a matchup you can feel optimistic about for them. The only power conference measuring stick we have for Omaha is a 32-point loss to Iowa State, a team that helpfully profiles similarly to St. John’s. The Red Storm should be able to score at will in the paint against the tournament’s worst 2-pt percentage defense. I’m sad Omaha didn’t get a more favorable draw, because this team has some fun players, but this one is going to be all Johnnies. Give me St. John’s to cover this large number.

Omaha vs St. John’s prediction: St. John’s -18.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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A popular upset pick in most bracket pools is going to be taking at least one #12 seed to knock off a #5 seed. This is a common upset that we’ve seen occur many times over the years, and I’m of the belief that this upset trend will continue this week in the South Region when the UC San Diego Tritons take on the Michigan Wolverines on Thursday. Just a few years removed from jumping up to the Division I level, UC San Diego has been one of the best stories in college basketball this season, winning 30 games (most of which came in dominant fashion) en route to a Big West title and a shot at knocking off the Big Ten champions. It just so happens that the Tritons are well-equipped to pull off the upset as short underdogs in this game. 

From a situational spot perspective, this Michigan team is coming off playing 3 hard-fought games in as many days en route to winning the Big Ten tournament title last Sunday. Now, the Wolverines have to travel to Denver to play at altitude against a UC San Diego team that is a very well-rounded group, and the numbers back it up. In fact, the Tritons are one of the highest-rated mid-major sides ever by the predictive analytic sites, such as KenPom, Barttorvik, etc. Part of why UC San Diego will be live in this game is that this is a pretty difficult team to prepare for, especially on a short turnaround. The Tritons play a unique style of basketball that emphasizes unselfishness and turning down good shots for great shots, which is part of why they have a very consistent offense (58th in adjusted efficiency, 30th in 2-point percentage, 30th in effective field goal percentage). However, the biggest edge in this game for Eric Olen’s team is their ability to force a ton of turnovers (2nd nationally in turnovers forced), while also not turning the ball over themselves. This strength should especially come in handy against an extremely turnover-prone Wolverines offense (328th in turnover percentage) that could find themselves in big trouble on Thursday against an excellent UC San Diego defense that is elite at defending the paint (93rd percentile in rim defense efficiency). Michigan is also due for some massive close game regression after winning a ton of games by 5 points or fewer throughout Big Ten play. All things considered, I’ll take the Tritons to pull off the outright upset on the money line in a game that should go down to the wire.  

UC San Diego vs Michigan prediction: UC San Diego ML (+130) available at time of publishing. Playable to +115.

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In the nightcap on the first day of the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, the #3 Texas Tech Red Raiders will play the #14 UNC Wilmington Seahawks in Wichita. The Red Raiders are battling injuries to Chance McMillian and Darrion Williams, both of whom missed the Big 12 Tournament loss to Arizona, but they are expected to return for this game on Thursday night – though head coach Grant McCasland did not commit to the amount of playing time they will receive. On the other end, UNC Wilmington earned a trip to the NCAA Tournament by winning the CAA, a run that consisted of wins over Hampton, Charleston and Delaware. 

The Seahawks have played just 1 tournament team this season, and it was an 84-66 loss to Kansas in Lawrence way back in November – so we don’t really know what the ceiling is for this team. That being said, there are a couple key factors in this game that I feel should benefit UNC Wilmington and increase its chance of finishing inside the number. With both teams averaging about 65 possessions per game this season and around 64 possessions per game over their last 10, this game is likely to be played primarily in the half court – which makes the points with the underdog that much more valuable. The Red Raiders will likely utilize their sizable talent advantage to score at-will from the 3-point line, and they should have success around the rim when they get there. However, I expect the Seahawks to find some offense as well. They operate efficiently in the mid range, which is an area that Texas Tech is a bit soft defensively, and they excel at creating second chances via the offensive rebounding prowess of 7-footer Harlan Obioha and the rest of the front court. In fact, UNCW’s front court consists of 4 players that are top 500 in offensive rebounding rate out of 2,309 qualified Division 1 players (KenPom). Moreover, senior guard Donovan Newby has a knack for getting to the free throw line at a high rate, and will likely be hunting to get those easy points at the charity stripe – where he connects on nearly 89% of his attempts. 

Texas Tech is clearly the better and more talented team in this matchup and is very likely to advance to the second round. However, with slight uncertainty in the amount of playing time for McMillan and Williams, as well as a slower-than-average expected pace of play, I like UNC Wilmington to cover this number. 

UNC Wilmington vs Texas Tech prediction: UNC Wilmington +15.5 (-105) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +13.5.

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The 15-seed Robert Morris Colonials may have a significantly shorter trip to Cleveland, Ohio ahead of their first-round game against the 2-seed Alabama Crimson Tide on Friday afternoon, but it’s perhaps the only advantage they have in this contest as 22.5-point underdogs. Playing in the Horizon League, Robert Morris finished atop the regular season standings and secured an 11-point win over Youngstown State in the Horizon League Championship game to punch their ticket to the Colonials’ first NCAA Tournament appearance in 10 years. Aside from an overtime scare against Oakland in the Semifinal, Robert Morris has faced little resistance, winning 10 straight games and 16 of their last 17 with an average margin of victory of 10.7 points over their last 10 games.

The problem for Robert Morris is obviously the strength of their schedule. The Colonials only played 2 teams that rank inside the top 150 teams in the nation, per KenPom, and they happen to be their last 2 games against Oakland and Youngstown State. The Crimson Tide rank 6 per KenPom and 5 per BartTorvik, and given the fact they play with the fastest tempo in the nation, Alabama should run up and down the court against Robert Morris. While I lean on Alabama covering the spread in this game, I’d much rather make a play on the game total and take the over. Alabama is leading the country in scoring at 91.1 ppg, while Robert Morris falls just inside the top 100, averaging 76.9 ppg. The Crimson Tide could easily stick 100 on the Colonials in this game and we just need the Colonials to do their part. Luckily, Robert Morris has surpassed their season scoring average in 6 of their last 9 games while averaging 80.4 ppg over that span. The Crimson Tide are one of the worst teams in the country at forcing turnovers, so the Colonials should have plenty of opportunities to score. Back the over in this round 1 matchup.

Robert Morris vs Alabama prediction: Over 165.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The #11 Tar Heels came alive in the First Four on Tuesday in a 95-68 win over San Diego State. To put it lightly, they absolutely destroyed SDSU, scoring 1.36 points per possession — including 14-for-24 from the 3-point line. The Tar Heels also knocked down 21 of their 24 free-throws and grabbed 10 offensive rebounds. On the other end, UNC forced San Diego State into some really tough shots. Due to the Heels pulling away early, the Aztecs seemed to think they needed to unload from the perimeter to remain competitive. That didn’t work, as SDSU made just 8 of its 27 attempts beyond the arc. 

The Tar Heels will meet the Ole Miss Rebels on Friday, and I like this matchup for the Heels. Ole Miss is very streaky offensively and doesn’t create second-chance opportunities at an elite rate. In fact, the Rebels are 313th in offensive rebounding rate this season, due in large part to a lack of elite size. San Diego State showed us how costly one-and-done possessions can be against this UNC squad, as the Tar Heels gobble up defensive rebounds at a top-25 rate and are able to utilize their stable of veteran guards to push the ball up the floor in transition at a ferocious pace. On the other end of the floor, North Carolina has surged defensively; the Heels are top 35 in adjusted defensive efficiency since February 22. When you add that to a 44% 3-point percentage in that span, you can understand why they are playing as well as anyone in the country right now. 

The Rebels have played by far the better level of competition this season, but is there a chance they are gassed following a tenuous SEC schedule? I think there’s merit to that idea. While UNC didn’t have many marquee wins this year, the talent level is there and it is playing well on both ends of the floor. North Carolina is my pick to advance to the second round.

North Carolina vs Ole Miss prediction: North Carolina ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135.

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The #1 Florida Gators earned a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a sterling 30-4 record that consisted of wins over Tennessee (twice), Alabama (twice), Auburn, Missouri and Texas A&M while lacking any bad losses. The Gators have great balance, leading the country in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency with a top 10 mark on the defensive side. They have plenty of Division 1 experience in the back court with 3 senior guards, including Final Four experience with Alijah Martin – who was part of FAU’s Cinderella run a couple years back. Furthermore, the Gators also have unique size with Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu, Micah Handlogten and Thomas Haugh – 2 of which can step outside the arc and knock down 3s, while the other 2 protect the rim and grab offensive rebounds at an elite rate. 

The MEAC winners in #16 Norfolk State don’t have any marquee wins, but the Spartans played Tennessee, Baylor, Stanford and Grand Canyon this year. They lost those games by an average of about 16 points per game, but that was much earlier in the season and right before conference play for most of those power conference programs. Norfolk doesn’t possess many characteristics that I look for in an upset pick. The Spartans struggle to take care of the ball (258th turnover rate), and they don’t shoot well from the perimeter (31.3% 3-point%). Moreover, their defense is suspect, as KenPom has it 217th in the country.

There’s too much size and firepower on Florida’s roster for me to get cute on this game. Give me the Gators to win and cover convincingly. 

Norfolk State vs Florida prediction: Florida -28.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -29.5.

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The Wildcats enter this tournament as a #3 seed in the Midwest and they’re getting ready to take on #14 Troy on Friday night. The Wildcats enter this game as double-digit favorites — and rightfully so, as they had the fourth-best scoring offense in the NCAA this season at 85.3 ppg. Troy made the field of 68 by winning the Sun Belt Tournament, and it’s not the offense that has been helping them win games this season — it has been the defense. As we get ready for tipoff, I’m leaning toward the Wildcats for my Troy vs Kentucky prediction.

If I were the Trojans, I would not want to face this Wildcats team in the first round. Kentucky is loaded with talent; it has 6 players averaging double-digits, but unfortunately will be without second-leading scorer Jaxson Robinson, who was averaging 13 ppg this season. Despite boasting a juggernaut of an offense, the Wildcats struggled tremendously on defense, allowing 77.9 ppg this season. If Troy wants to keep this game close, it will need to attack this Wildcats defense — and Tayton Conerway is the person to do it. Conerway is averaging 14.3 ppg this season, leading this Trojans team on offense and during the Sun Belt Tournament scoring 20.3 ppg. Troy won’t go down without a fight in this matchup, and despite Kentucky struggling on defense this season, I think it has too much fire power for the Trojans to handle — making the Wildcats my best bet of the day. 

Troy vs Kentucky Prediction: Kentucky -11.5  (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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On Friday, Cleveland will play host to one of the more intriguing matchups of the day, as the New Mexico Lobos face the Marquette Golden Eagles. This game features some star power between two teams that are very similarly built. New Mexico has had a full week off after a semifinal exit from Mountain West tournament, but that’s okay, because they didn’t need to win that one anyway. Marquette has struggled a bit down the stretch, losing 3 of their last 4 games. For those looking for an upset, this is a good place to sniff around, as the Lobos are a very dangerous team. You can bet that coach Richard Pitino has made a call to his legendary dad for some pointers on how to beat this Marquette team, something his dad has done 3 times this season. Moreover, the Lobos are built very much like St. John’s, and I think that gives the Lobos an advantage.

These teams are very similar. Both are well-balanced and effective on both ends of the court. Both teams have star point guards who take care of the ball and drive their offenses. Both teams thrive on creating turnovers, but neither team turns it over much with their star guards, so you have to figure the turnover battle will be a wash in this one. You should know about Kam Jones for Marquette and Donavan Dent of New Mexico, two of the best players in the country. But you also need to know about New Mexico’s Nelly Junior Joseph, who is an absolute force on the interior. I think both teams will take care of the ball and limit fast break points, and New Mexico will control the boards enough to keep this game close. I think this one will be a nail-biter to the end, so I am happy to take the points with the underdog here.

New Mexico vs Marquette prediction: New Mexico +4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Akron, a #13 seed in the NCAA Tournament, gets ready to take on #4 Arizona on Friday and it should be a great matchup between 2 high-powered offenses. Last year the Zips made the Big Dance as a #14 seed, losing in the first round to Creighton. Akron has won 7 in a row and 21 of its last 22 games, and facing a Big 12 team doesn’t scare the Zips. The Wildcats lost to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament final, so they will be looking for some revenge and definitely boast the talent to make a run in the NCAA Tournament. As we get ready for tipoff, I’m leaning toward the Zips for my Akron vs Arizona pick.

The Zips enter this game as +14 underdogs, and despite there being a stark difference between conferences, I still believe they can score plenty of baskets in this matchup. The Wildcats’ defense is giving up 72.4 ppg this season, and the Zips are shooting 47.3% from the field. Toward the end of the Big 12 campaign, the ‘Cats gave up 100 points to Arizona State and 96 to BYU. This Akron team can move the ball and has plenty of players who will be able to score some buckets. At the end of the day, I think Caleb Love will help carry Arizona to victory. However, I think the Zips will be tough for the Wildcats to handle and they should be able to cover this large spread — making Akron my best bet of the day. 

Akron vs Arizona prediction: Akron +14  (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The #8 vs #9 matchup in the West Region is awesome. The reigning back-to-back national champion UConn Huskies will meet the Oklahoma Sooners in Raleigh on Friday night, with the winner advancing to a potential matchup with #1 Florida on Sunday. Both teams are playing pretty well on the offensive end of late, mutually ranking in the top 12 of Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency since February 22nd. Similarly, neither team has been very good defensively. UConn and Oklahoma rank 99th or worse in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last month, and neither team is disciplined enough to defend without fouling. In fact, the Huskies are 333rd in free throw rate allowed, while the Sooners are 254th. However, the Sooners are active in the passing lines, which is a staple of Porter Moser’s defense dating back to his days at Loyola.

This game will be a pace war, as Oklahoma wants to run while UConn is content walking the ball up the court and running their sets. It’s difficult to project games with such a dichotomy in tempo, but I like the Sooners to keep this game inside the number. Oklahoma has been excellent in the underdog role this season, covering 12 of 18 games when catching points in a much more difficult conference than this season’s Big East. They come into this tournament on a hot streak against the number as well, covering 7 of their last 10 games. UConn cannot say the same. The Huskies have been up-and-down against the number leading into the tournament, and they haven’t fared well in the favorite role. 

Jeremiah Fears has blossomed into quite the playmaker, as the freshman guard loves to get downhill and finish at the rim or dish to a shooter. He will likely be able to get what he wants against a UConn defense that is in the 3rd percentile against shots off the dribble according to Hoop-Explorer. Outside of him, the Sooners are loaded with seniors and have 3 players on the wings that shoot at least 39% from the perimeter on at least 90 attempts. Forward Sam Godwin, who is the team’s best rebounder and shot-blocker, has missed Oklahoma’s last 3-4 games with an injury, but I think there’s reason to believe he will return for this game. Coach Moser said that Godwin is still day-to-day, but has been progressing nicely in his rehab and that he’s doing more every day. Given the fact that this is the NCAA Tournament, I think Godwin gives it a go even if he’s not fully 100%. His presence is crucial for the Sooners down low, even if he’s only 80-90%. 

Maybe it’s because I have been burned by UConn plenty of times this season, but I just don’t trust this team laying more than 2 possessions against an Oklahoma squad that can score in bunches, turn teams over and get to the free throw line for easy points. These teams are fairly even in my evaluation, and I even have Oklahoma as a small favorite in this matchup based on their adjusted numbers over the last month or so, so I like the Sooners to cover and maybe even win outright. Due to UConn’s recent postseason pedigree, my best bet is Oklahoma with the points — but I likely will sprinkle on the money line, as well.

Oklahoma vs UConn prediction: Oklahoma +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3. 

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As the first round winds to a close, we head to Cleveland for a Bryant Bulldogs vs Michigan State Spartans prediction. For people that love picking upsets, the Bryant Bulldogs are on lots of folks’ watchlists, but I think we are getting carried away here. Bryant is buried on the metrics lists for a reason, and I think this is a spot where we will see superior talent taking over a game. Let’s also not overlook the fact that Sparty absolutely mowed through the Big Ten schedule this year, winning 17 of 20 games in a conference that produced 8 tournament teams.

Lots of money is coming in early on the Bryant upset, and that has pushed this number down a bit. Bryant is a go-fast team, playing at the 7th fastest temp in the country. You would imagine they would have a much harder time doing that against Izzo’s bunch than against their American East opponents though. Their one measuring stick game was against St. John’s, a team that plays similarly to Michigan State, and the Bulldogs lost that one 99-77. Bryant is also a tall team—in fact, they are the tallest team in the country, on average—but they don’t necessarily rebound all that well. My one concern in this game is that Michigan State does not tend to blow out a lot of opponents, despite having a very efficient offense and a smothering defense. The Spartans could win this game by 12 to 15 and still feel like they were in complete control the whole way. Still, I think this is a spot where a superior team is just going to blow through an overmatched small conference team. Give me Sparty to cover.

Bryant vs Michigan State prediction: Michigan State -17.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Liberty Flames and the Oregon Ducks will meet in Seattle on Friday for round 1 of the NCAA Tournament. The Big Dance will be in full swing by the time these 2 teams face off, but it should be one of the best games of the day. Liberty has been among the best mid-major teams in the country, winning the Conference USA regular season and tournament championship. Oregon had a great start to the year but finished just eighth in the Big Ten. I like Liberty to keep this game close and cover the 7-point spread.

Liberty +7 is my best bet because it is an elite shooting team and thee defense should be able to limit Oregon’s 3-point shots. According to KenPom, Liberty’s offense is ranked #2 in effective field-goal percentage and #5 in 3-point percentage and #13 in 2-point percentage. The Flames’ offense will likely be good enough to have success Oregon’s defense. Liberty’s defense is ranked #3 in 3-point percentage and #10 in effective field-goal percentage, so Oregon’s points will not come easy. The Flames are a good enough team to keep this game close and potentially pull off a classic 12-over-5 upset. I’m taking Liberty to cover.

Liberty vs Oregon prediction: Liberty +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.

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In a First Four showdown, Mount St. Mary’s and American University battle for the right to face the Duke Blue Devils in the Round of 64. Both teams enter Dayton with different strengths, but for one side they must overcome a major weakness. American quietly controlled the Patriot League standings for much of the season, benefitting from an experienced roster packed with seniors and super-seniors who have built strong chemistry. While the Eagles don’t specialize in creating havoc defensively, they do force giveaways at the highest rate in their league, winning the turnover battle in 10 of their last 11 games. That statistic is just within the Patriot League, so the Mountaineers are still in luck. American doesn’t have an elite defense by any means; they are actually just 200th in steals. MSM should control the boards as well, ranking 52nd in rebounds compared to American’s 339th. The Eagles have taken the last four games from MSM, it’s revenge time for the Mountaineers.

Mount St. Mary’s has been a force against the spread this year. They’ve thrived as underdogs (14-5 ATS), excelled in non-conference play (7-3 ATS), and remained consistent on the road (11-6 ATS). Even on short rest, they’ve proven resilient. Meanwhile, American has been far less reliable in these situations, hovering around .500 ATS in most betting trends. While American has the edge in taking care of the ball, the trends suggest Mount St. Mary’s will keep this close and win outright. It is March though, and we’ve seen crazy things happen, I’ll take the points just in case.

Mount Saint Mary’s vs American prediction: Mount Saint Mary’s +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 1.

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The final game of the First Four comes out of the Midwest Region on Wednesday night, when we’re treated to a 2023 Sweet 16 rematch between the Xavier Musketeers and the Texas Longhorns. The winner will move on to the field of 64 and travel to Milwaukee as an 11-seed to take on 6-seed Illinois on Friday night. The Musketeers didn’t manage to win any games in the Big East Tournament, coming up just short in an 89-87 loss to Marquette, but they certainly finished the regular season strong, racking up 7 consecutive wins to close the year with a respectable 13-7 record in conference play. Meanwhile, the Longhorns finished just 6-12 in the SEC, but the conference as a whole was a gauntlet, with 14 teams earning invitations to the big dance. Texas was on the bubble heading into the SEC Conference Tournament but secured their spot with wins over Vanderbilt and Texas A&M before falling to Tennessee in the Quarterfinal.

This is an intriguing matchup, and it won’t be short of any star power on either side. Texas may be the underdog in this contest, but they have one of the top guards in the country in Tre Johnson, who led the SEC with 19.8 ppg. Johnson is talented enough to carry his team to 1 or 2 wins in this tournament, but I ultimately land on Xavier coming out the victor. The Musketeers will rely on Zach Freemantle, who averaged 17.3 ppg and was notably absent in mid-December when Xavier lost in overtime on the road to UConn and lost by just 2 points to Marquette later in the week. Xavier showed resilience without their best player in those games, but with Freemantle at full health, the Musketeers have the edge against Texas. Per BartTorvik, the Musketeers have been more efficient both offensively and defensively over their last 10 games than their season averages, whereas the Longhorns have regressed. Most notable are the defensive numbers for Texas, who rank 69th in defensive efficiency on the season but rank 129th across their last 10 games. Texas won when their backs were up against the wall in the SEC Tournament, but these teams are trending in opposite directions come madness time. Lay the points with Xavier.

Xavier vs Texas prediction: Xavier -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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