NBA Picks

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The New York Knicks have won 4 of their last 5 games heading into a showdown against the Los Angeles Lakers inside Crypto.com Arena in L.A. on Sunday afternoon. New York is playing stellar basketball, with only a 3-point loss to defending NBA champion Oklahoma City during this 5-game stretch. I expect momentum to continue, so my Knicks vs Lakers pick is for the visitors to win and cover. New York’s current 5-game road trip could not have started any better, as it absolutely humiliated Denver 142-103 on Friday night. Karl-Anthony Towns extended his double-double streak to 5 games with 17 points and 13 rebounds, while OG Anunoby delivered 34 points. It’s also worth noting that the Knicks’ fine form has been showing for a long time now, as they are also 16-5 SU in their last 21 overall. This can be explained in part by the fact that they have never been healthier this season than they are right now. Miles McBride (out until the playoffs following core muscle surgery) is the only player on the roster with any kind of injury designation.

Los Angeles is mostly healthy, too, although Deandre Ayton is questionable for Sunday with a knee problem. LeBron James (elbow) is probable. LeBron, however, has not been playing particularly well. The 41-year-old has been held under his season-long points per game average (21.4 ppg) in 6 of 8 contests since the all-star break. Ayton has been pretty much useless in recent weeks, so the Lakers can’t feel good about their presence down low regardless of his status. The Lakers are just 6-6 in their last 12 games; their relative struggles are likely to continue against such a red-hot and confident opponent.

Knicks vs Lakers prediction: New York -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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For the Rockets, Sunday’s game is massive. Their form has been up and down lately, exchanging wins and losses in their last 5 outings. Despite failing to master consistency in this period, they have been able to keep hold of the third seed — mainly because the Nuggets have also struggled a bit in this period. Playing the Spurs will be a proper test. The Rockets’ only win against them this season came at home, so they are looking to even things out as far as the regular-season series goes.

We witnessed the comeback for the ages by the San Antonio Spurs in their last game, as they overcame a 25-point deficit and beat their former star Kawhi Leonard and his Clippers. That performance has the league on notice; San Antonio means business. Victor Wembanyama has been playing extremely well since the break. He delivered 27 points, 10 rebounds and 4 blocks in just 22 minutes against the Clippers. His matchup with Alperen Sengun down low could decide the outcome of Sunday’s game against the Rockets.

I find it hard to bet against the Spurs these days, no matter who the opponent is and no matter how big the spread is. For Sunday against the Rockets, the number is at 5 points — which is very reasonable considering that the Spurs’ 2 head-to-head wins have come by 11 and 12 points. Playing at home will also be a boost; in 29 games there, Wemby and company are a dominant 23-6 SU. I’ll back San Antonio.

Rockets vs Spurs prediction: San Antonio -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The hottest team in the league got cooled off a bit in its last game with Charlotte’s 128-120 home loss to Miami. The loss ended a historic streak of 6 wins in a row by double-digits, but the Hornets won’t be discouraged after that result as they head into Phoenix for a date with the shorthanded Suns. Charlotte’s turnaround this season has been very impressive — so much that it now goes into games as a favorite on a regular basis — even against teams that have better records. Over the years, the Hornets have not had the best of times in head-to-head meetings with Phoenix — winning only once in 9 such games.

Phoenix snagged a narrow 2-point win over the Pelicans earlier this week despite that game being the second night of a back-to-back. That is very encouraging for a team that has battled a lot of injuries lately — and with Dillon Brooks still being out due to a hand isse. Devin Booker is back and leading the charge offensively, so a lot will depend on his performance in Sunday’s game. It’s not often you get the Suns as home underdogs. For a long time they were the league’s most reliable ATS team this season, but just recently the Hornets actually overtook them. Phoenix is a far better home team than the one that goes out on the road — it is 21-13 SU in 34 games at the Mortgage Matchup Center.

The way the Hornets have been playing lately, it’s going to be hard to overlook them here for a lot of people. However, taking into account that some of those big wins during the streak came against tanking teams and the fact that the Suns have the superior head-to-head record, I’m going to lean Phoenix — but just barely.

Hornets vs Suns prediction: Phoenix +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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With back-to-back wins over Washington and Dallas, optimism is back among the Magic ranks. However, beating a bunch of tanking teams won’t hide all the flaws this team has been having of late. Orlando is a bottom-5 rebounding team in the NBA over the past 10 games, also ranking in the lower tier when it comes to true shooting and effective field-goal percentage. Not having Franz Wagner is a major handicap offensively, so Paolo Banchero and Desmond Bane have been taking turns leading the way scoring the ball. Saturday sees the Magic head to Target Center for a date with Minnesota. They have actually enjoyed a lot of success in head-to-head meetings from a betting perspective, covering in 15 of the last 18 games.

Anthony Edwards and his Timberwolves have been heating up ever since the all-star break. They have now won 5 games in a row, with Edwards putting up MVP-like numbers. All 5 wins have been by single-digits, which tells us the character of this team is very strong in clutch situations. The oddsmakers have set the line at 5.5 points — enough to make us think twice if it’s a good idea to back the Timberwolves to cover. They have not been a good bet this season in home games, going just 14-19 ATS. Their last 7 games have seen them cover only twice, but they did sweep the regular season against Orlando last year by winning by 7 and 15 points.

If there’s one constant we have seen with the T-Wolves this season, it has been their ability to win games with their defense. The under has cashed 22 times in 33 games at Target Center, and the Timberwolves rank 10th in defense over the past 10 games played. Orlando is seventh during this stretch. The last 10 meetings between the 2 sides have seen an average of 217.9 points per game, so I’ll stick with the trends and back the under.

Magic vs Timberwolves prediction: Under 226.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This matchup is being priced almost entirely through the lens of perception. Detroit is the hottest team in the Eastern Conference and is currently carrying the reputation of a contender, while Brooklyn is viewed as the bottom of the barrel. That contrast naturally pushes the market toward Detroit and inflates the number to the point where the Nets only become worth considering once the spread grows large enough to attract attention. That threshold has likely been reached.

The Pistons may very well control the game, but covering a number this large requires sustained separation for most of the night. That becomes difficult in a game where the projected total sits around 216, signaling a slower, more defensive environment. Lower totals generally reduce the number of possessions, and fewer possessions make it harder for favorites to create and maintain large margins. In games expected to be defensive and deliberate, every possession carries more weight. If Detroit controls the pace and the game plays closer to the projected total, the Pistons would need an extremely efficient offensive night to stretch the margin far enough.

This is less about believing in Brooklyn and more about the price attached to Detroit. With such a large spread in a lower-scoring environment, the value lies in taking the points and accepting the uncomfortable side.

Nets vs Pistons prediction: Brooklyn +14 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Philadelphia just ended a mini 2-game slide with a win over the Utah Jazz — but it was far from a convincing performance by Tyrese Maxey and company, as they won just 4 points. Their backs are against the wall on Saturday as they take on the in-form Hawks. Atlanta has won all 3 meetings so far this season and is on an 8-game winning streak in the head-to-head. No Joel Embiid and most likely VJ Edgecombe means that the Sixers have only one reliable scoring option here in Tyrese Maxey. Philly has covered 3 times in 10 games, while against the Hawks it is just 1-4 ATS in the last 5.

The Hawks spoiled the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo in their last game as they took down the Milwaukee Bucks for their fifth win in a row. They are once again back over the .500 mark, and this is only the second time this season they’ve won this many games in a row. On the injury front there are no major concerns apart from Jonathan Kuminga being a game-time decision, but his injury is a minor one and he should be ready. During the winning streak, the offense has been clicking on all cylinders — Atlanta is scoring 122.3 points per 100 possessions. What should make Hawks fans even happier are their performances on the other end, with only the Knicks having a better defensive rating during this stretch.

It would take a major collapse on the Hawks part for them not to win this game. Jalen Johnson has been absolutely unstoppable in this matchup this season, averaging 28.3 points, 11.3 rebounds and 8.0 assists per game. The Sixers won’t have an answer for him. If Atlanta can shut down Maxey on offense, this is a wrap. I’ll take the Hawks.

76ers vs Hawks prediction: Atlanta -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Los Angeles Clippers will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back situation when they visit the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday evening. This isn’t just any ordinary back-to-back, either. The Clippers are coming off an absolutely disastrous loss at San Antonio in which they squandered a 25-point lead. It will be difficult to recover from that collapse less than 24 hours later, so my Clippers vs Grizzlies pick is for the home team to cover.

There is no denying that Memphis stinks, but it should be able to keep this game competitive at home against a reeling opponent. Los Angeles is horrible on the road — 14-19 in such situations this season compared to 16-13 at home. John Collins (neck) is not traveling with L.A. on this trip and Darius Garland (toe) missed Friday’s contest. Memphis has absolutely dominated the regular-season series between these 2 Western Conference rivals, winning all 3 matchups so far. The Grizz won those games by 18, 9 and 5 points. This is another one they might even win outright.

Clippers vs Grizzlies prediction: Memphis +6.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.5.

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The Utah Jazz host the Milwaukee Bucks in a matchup between 2 teams falling short of expectations. The Jazz are in full tank mode, while the Bucks have regained Giannis Antetokounmpo recently and are at least trying to string some wins together. Utah enters with an 18-38 record while playing at a 101.8 pace, the third fastest in the league. Despite their offensive production, the Jazz have struggled defensively — allowing 125.9 points per game, which ranks 30th in the NBA. Their efficiency numbers reflect that imbalance with a -7.60 net rating. Lauri Markkanen leads the offense with 26.7 points per game, while Jusuf Nurkic averages 10.4 rebounds and 1.3 steals. Isaiah Collier directs the offense, helping fuel Utah’s fast-paced scoring approach.

The Bucks enter with a 23-30 record and operate at a more controlled pace built around interior scoring and half-court execution. Milwaukee averages 111.8 points per game while allowing 115.2 points per game, producing an offensive rating of 113.7 and a defensive rating of 117.2. Antetokounmpo remains the centerpiece, averaging 28.0 points, 10.0 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game. The Bucks also receive production from Ryan Rollins with 16.9 points and 5.5 assists per game, while Myles Turner provides rim protection with 1.7 blocks per game. Utah’s fast pace combined with the league’s worst scoring defense creates favorable conditions for Milwaukee’s offense — giving the Bucks a clear opportunity to control the tempo and build a margin.

Jazz vs Bucks prediction: Milwaukee -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -10.5.

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Oklahoma City is at home with its roster at full strength, which naturally commands a premium in the betting market. The Thunder have long established themselves as the elite side in the league, and when the defending champs play on their home floor in good health, the market tends to price them accordingly. That dynamic helps explain why this spread has climbed into the 2-touchdown range.

But the conversation is not which team is better. It’s whether the favorite can realistically create that level of separation. The total for the game sits around 219, which signals a more controlled scoring environment. Lower totals generally mean fewer possessions, and fewer possessions make it much harder for favorites to maintain large margins throughout the game. Golden State’s offensive profile overall still makes it a dangerous team to lay this many points against. The Warriors nonetheless operate with significant 3-point volume and spacing, which creates natural volatility. Even if Oklahoma City controls the majority of the game, one eruption can quickly shrink a lead — even if it’s well over 20 points hypothetically. Large spreads often come down to late-game dynamics, as well. If the Thunder are comfortably ahead, the Warriors’ perimeter shooting gives them a realistic backdoor path. Let’s take the points.

Warriors vs Thunder prediction: Golden State +14.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +14.

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