NBA Picks

The Cleveland Cavaliers hit the road to battle the Charlotte Hornets on Friday at Spectrum Center. The Cavs just mopped up against the Brooklyn Nets at Rocket Arena at home on Thursday, winning 112-84 as -16 favorites as the under (229.5) easily cashed. For the Hornets, they were on the short end of a 105-101 loss at home against the Houston Rockets — who cooled off Charlotte a bit. The Hornets entered 10-1 in the previous 11 games, but the all-star break also might have come at an inopportune time. The under cashed in Charlotte’s loss to Houston, and it has hit in 3 straight.

The Hornets have scored 111 or fewer points in 6 of the past 7 games, and it’s no surprise that the under is 6-1 in that span. The total has stayed low in 11 of the past 14 games, too, including a 94-87 home loss to the Cavs on Jan. 21 in Charlotte in the most recent meeting. Cleveland has cashed low at a 3-2 clip in the past 5 games and 6-4 in the past 10 outings. The Cavs have allowed 118 or fewer points in 3 straight and 10 of the past 12 contests. The under is 4-4 on no rest for Cleveland this season, while the Under is 9-2 in 11 games this season when playing the second game of a back-to-back for Charlotte.

Cavaliers vs Hornets prediction: Under 233 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 231.

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These 2 teams played yesterday and the Wizards won by 7 points. The oddsmakers, however, has not budged. Indiana is priced in the same range that it was yesterday. That’s the most telling clue. Back-to-backs are never easy to navigate, because to the victor of game one goes the spoils, while the vanquished makes adjustments. Indiana is the team that has go back to the drawing board, but seldom does the second leg play out exactly like the first leg. The line is basically saying that.

However, the market is zig-zagging. Yesterday, the Wizards had no appeal as underdogs even though Indiana was 5-22 SU on the road (now 5-23). Today the market is coming back the other way with Washington. That’s the easy thing to do; that’s the knee-jerk reaction. Yesterday the Wizards were the play, and now today the market is fading the Pacers for the reasons that were mentioned in the first game of the back-to-back. Indiana is a shaky road team; expecting the Pacers to dictate terms is ludicrous. Washington is built different. That’s all paraphrasing for what you will hear in many analyses, but the point is that if you read our analysis yesterday as we backed the Wizards, that’s what we wrote. Now it’s being said a game later, after the fact, with the rest of the market harboring those sentiments. What this has turned into is an age-old case of betting a team a game too late. The time to back Washington was yesterday when they were off the radar, not today when they have already made noise. The fact that Indiana is installed at the same price as it was yesterday is the oddsmakers daring everyone to take Washington. We’re not going to bite. The Pacers find a way to win the rematch and all they need to do is win by 1 perimeter shot to cover.

Pacers vs Wizards prediction: Indiana -2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Does either team play defense? Not really. Utah loves to play with pace and loves to lead with its offense. This is a team that loves track meets. Memphis is a team that can keep pace high and is happy to trade buckets with a team like Utah that has no defensive backstop. The angle isn’t that both these teams are great offensively, so we are backing the over for that reason alone. It’s also because both are prone to short defensive possessions.

Also, totals in this range cash when the game stays competitive. The spread is literally one basket. A tight spread means fourth quarters can get explosive. What you have as result is a normal pace plus late-game free-throws layered on top. Every possession will count, and in the late minutes those possessions often draw situations with many trips to the line. Backing the under is backing the notion that at least one team finds a sustained cold stretch. That may not happen. In this matchup, the more reliable pattern is the opposite: neither team strings together consistent stops. Clearing 239 here becomes less about offensive ceiling and more about what is a good baseline working number.

Jazz vs Grizzlies prediction: Over 238.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Miami Heat (29–27) enter this matchup as 3.5 point favorites, currently sitting eighth in the Eastern Conference and just 1.5 games out of a top six seed. Miami could receive a major boost with the expected return of Tyler Herro, who has missed 45 games due to ankle, toe, and rib injuries but has been practicing and is on track to play. Prior to the injury, Herro was averaging 21.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game, providing critical shot creation and perimeter scoring. The Heat have split the season series with Atlanta, including a convincing 126-111 win in late December where Norman Powell scored 25 points and Pelle Larsson added a career high 21. With improved depth and the potential reintegration of their leading scorer, Miami’s offense projects to regain balance and late game stability.

The Atlanta Hawks (27-30) recently snapped a three game skid with a 117-107 win over Philadelphia, fueled by Jalen Johnson’s dominant 32-point, 10-rebound outing. CJ McCollum chipped in 23 points as Atlanta showcased improved ball movement and transition play. The Hawks also secured a 127-115 win over Miami on Feb. 3, highlighted by Johnson’s triple double performance. Still, Atlanta has struggled with consistency, particularly from beyond the arc, and remains behind Miami in the standings. With the Heat trending healthier and typically more reliable in half court execution, Miami appears better positioned to control tempo and close out what should be a competitive divisional battle.

Heat vs Hawks prediction: Heat -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.5.

The latest news coming out of Dallas is that Kyrie Irving will miss the remainder of the season as he focuses on recovering from his ACL injury for next year. The move makes perfect sense for the Mavs, who are looking to develop their younger players instead of trying to win now. They went into the break on a 9-game losing streak. Friday sees them take on the Minnesota Timberwolves with Cooper Flagg being ruled out with a foot issue. Flagg was the only thing that made watching Mavs games worthwhile during this losing streak, as he was putting up some crazy numbers from an individual standpoint. With him out, it’s hard to imagine Dallas being competitive. Four of its last 5 defeats have been by double-digits.

Back-to-back wins over Atlanta and Portland eased a bit of pressure off the Timberwolves going into all-star weekend, but Anthony Edwards and company cannot relax if they want to remain in one of the top 6 seeds in the Western Conference. Getting Ayo Dosunmu was a really solid move as they added another elite shooter who can contribute on the defensive end, as well. Anthony Edwards shined in LA over the weekend, winning the All-Star Game MVP trophy. If he can carry over that momentum into the regular season, the Timberwolves will be in good hands. In their last 9 games when favored, the T-Wolves have 6 wins and just 3 losses.

Dallas has been a disaster over the last 9 games, especially on offense. The Mavs have connected on just 7, 5, 9 and 3 threes in 4 of those 9 games. Without Flagg the offense will struggle even more, and they have covered the spread only twice in 15 road games. We just saw the Timberwolves beat the Blazers and Hawks by 24 and 22 points, respectively — 2 teams that are battling for the play-in tournament. They should handle their business against a shorthanded tanking Dallas Mavericks team.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves prediction: Minnesota -13 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Not much has changed for the Brooklyn Nets following the all-star break. In their first game since the weeklong layoff, they got destroyed by the Cleveland Cavaliers 112-84. In their second game since the break, they head to Oklahoma City for a date with the Thunder as +17.5 underdogs. With just 4 wins in 20 games, it’s really hard to expect them getting anything out of this game — especially since we know they have won just twice in 9 visits to OKC. It is a real struggle to find any positives for this team right now; it is among those select few teams that are blatantly tanking, hoping to get a high pick in this year’s NBA draft.

One the other side we have the defending champs, who went into the break following a nasty 110-93 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks at home. Injuries have derailed them a bit with leading scorer and MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out, joined by Ajax Mitchell and Jalen Williams. All 3 of them are expected to sit this game, as well, so it will be interesting to see how the Thunder cope. They have not been as reliable in home games as of late, covering just once in 6 games, while against Eastern Conference opponents they’re just 3-7 ATS in 10 outings. What should give them optimism here is the fact that they’ve beaten the Nets 7 times in 9 home games coming into Friday’s game.

The only question we have to ask ourselves is if we trust the shorthanded Thunder, who are without their 2 best players. Brooklyn is playing without any pressure whatsoever — giving its younger players an opportunity to showcase their talent. The massive spread does make me a tad nervous, I must admit. As bad as the Nets have been lately, they are still capable of keeping games somewhat close. The Thunder might need a game or two to get into rhythm following the break, so I will give the Nets a chance and back them plus the massive spread.

Nets vs Thunder prediction: Brooklyn +17.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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At first glance, New Orleans is the last team most bettors want to trust — especially as a favorite. The Pelicans have lacked consistency, their public perception is shaky and they haven’t given the market many reasons to feel comfortable laying points with them. That lack of appeal is exactly what creates the value here. Who is lining up to back New Orleans, let alone lay points with them? Especially after the Bucks beat them in overtime earlier this month when the Pels were the chalk. The answer: not many, and that’s the point.

This is a spot where the matchup and game environment matter more than reputation. The Pelicans don’t need to be a great team to cover this number; they just need to control the physical areas of the game. At home, New Orleans can generate separation through paint pressure, offensive rebounding and trips to the free-throw line, scoring sources that don’t rely on perimeter variance. Milwaukee’s volatility plays into that profile. When the Bucks aren’t efficient from outside, their offense can stall. That creates scoring drought potential, and droughts are what turn competitive games into multi-possession margins. The best part is New Orleans doesn’t need to dominate. In a game where public confidence is low, this is an uncomfortable favorite worth backing. New Orleans is favored here for a reason.

Bucks vs Pelicans prediction: Pelicans -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.

The Denver Nuggets (35-21) enter this matchup as one of the league’s most efficient offensive teams, ranking near the top in overall shooting and three point percentage while consistently playing at a strong tempo. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray continue to anchor the attack, generating high quality looks in both half court and transition sets. Although Aaron Gordon (hamstring), Peyton Watson (hamstring), and Tamar Bates (foot) are sidelined, Denver still averages north of 116 points per game and has shown the ability to win in high scoring environments. Their spacing and ball movement should translate well against a Portland defense that has struggled to contain dynamic offenses.

The Portland Trail Blazers (27-29) have embraced an up tempo style, ranking among the better teams in offensive rebounding and second chance opportunities. Scoot Henderson and Jrue Holiday have provided consistent production, and despite Shaedon Sharpe remaining out, Portland has continued to push pace at home. With both teams comfortable playing fast and neither consistently locking down defensively, this matchup projects to feature elevated possessions and scoring runs on both ends.

Nuggets vs Trail Blazers prediction: Over 241.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 242.5.

The LA Clippers (27-28) enter this rivalry matchup on the second night of a back to back after edging Denver 115-114 behind Bennedict Mathurin’s 38 points and Kawhi Leonard’s 23, continuing their strong 21-7 run since late December. Despite the surge, the Clippers sit ninth in the West with a near even scoring profile (112.0 PPG scored, 112.4 allowed) and remain thin due to injuries as Darius Garland is still sidelined. Fatigue could be a major factor here, especially against a rested opponent with superior depth and star power.

The Los Angeles Lakers (33-21) return from the All-Star break fully healthy, highlighted by Luka Doncic’s return from a hamstring strain. Doncic leads the league at 32.8 PPG, while Austin Reaves has averaged 25.4 points, 6.0 assists, and 5.0 rebounds across 28 games. With LeBron James also available, the Lakers bring elite offensive firepower into a favorable scheduling spot. At 15-10 at home and battling for playoff positioning, the Lakers should be able to exploit tired legs and control tempo in this matchup.

Clippers vs Lakers prediction: Lakers -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.