NBA Picks

It’s not often you’ll see the Memphis Grizzlies hold an opponent to just 105 points these days, but that’s exactly what they did in their last game beating the Mavs by 19 points on the road. The trip continues in Indiana on Sunday as they look to sweep the regular season series vs the Pacers. There’s really no good news on the injury front for either side here, with so many players out we aren’t exactly sure how the starting line-up for the Grizzlies will look here. For what it’s worth this team has the upper hand in head-to-head meetings winning 7 of the last 9 games, while also covering 8 times in that span.

Indiana is rock bottom of the Eastern Conference right now, with just one more loss than the Brooklyn Nets in 14th. They’ve dropped 5 games in a row, with two of those losses coming against the lowly Washington Wizards which is really hard to do considering how bad that team has played all year. I can’t see the Pacers putting in the effort to change things here, a win only worsens their chances for landing the top pick in the draft lottery. Even the three-ball which has been a reliable shot for most of the season has failed the Pacers – in their last 2 games they’ve dropped just 11 and 13 of them.

Entering March we will see a lot of games like this one where both teams would rather lose than get a win. So what is the best course of action? I’d say backing the over. That bet has cashed in 6 of 7 for Indy and in 5 straight at home. For Memphis that bet is 9-3 in their last 12 games, with both sides playing without any real pressure here, defenses might take the night off which should result in a lot of points. Back the over.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Indiana Pacers Predictions: Over 238.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It was a lot harder than expected, but the Detroit Pistons got the job in the end beating the shorthanded Cavaliers 122-119 in OT. The game was marked by a malfunction in the arena horn which went off for 13 minutes, before eventually getting fixed. Sunday sees the Pistons travel to Orlando for a date with the Magic in what could potentially be a East first round playoffs preview. These two did split the first 2 meetings of the season so far, interestingly enough playing in the venue in Orlando hasn’t been a pleasant experience for the Pistons over the years. Cade and co. have failed to cover in their last 5 visits and are just 2-9 straight up in 11 meetings with the Magic overall.

Kevin Durant was too much to handle or the Magic in their last game as he dropped a cool 40 piece on them in a 113-108 home loss to Houston. It was the Magic’s first home game following a grueling West coast trip, so perhaps we can attribute the loss to that. With them settling in a bit, they’ll look to get a result at Kia Center where they are one of the more reliable home teams in the league at 17-10 SU this season. Coming up with a gameplan to contain Cade Cunningham will be a priority – the Pistons MVP candidate has torched them for an average of 34.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 10.5 assists in the two meetings so far this season.

The Pistons needed OT to beat a Cavs team without Donovan Mitchell and James Harden on Thursday. Orlando has been a tough nut to track over the years when playing at Kia Center, I feel like the Magic will use that to their advantage on Sunday. With a 6-3 SU record over their last 9 games and a run of 4-1 ATS in their last 5, I can definitely see them keeping things close here. .

Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic Predictions: Magic +5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Portland Trail Blazers enter this matchup hovering around the .500 mark, going 6-4 over their last 10 games while averaging roughly 116 points per contest. Portland has shown the ability to stay competitive thanks to solid rebounding numbers (around 46 per game) and improved late game execution, posting a strong record in close contests this season. Offensively, they’ve been effective when pushing tempo and attacking the paint, creating second chance opportunities that help offset defensive inconsistencies. The Blazers also handled Atlanta earlier this season with a double digit win, showcasing their ability to control pace and execute efficiently in the half court.

The Atlanta Hawks have been strong at home, riding a modest home win streak while averaging just over 118 points per game. Atlanta ranks near the top of the league in assists, emphasizing ball movement and perimeter creation, but their defense remains inconsistent, particularly against teams that rebound well and generate paint touches. While the Hawks can score in bunches, they’ve struggled to consistently separate from opponents defensively. With Portland’s recent form and ability to keep games tight, this shapes up as a competitive matchup that favors the underdog staying within the number.

Trail Blazers vs Hawks Prediction: Trail Blazers +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5

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The Thunder played their hearts out on Thursday, spending a ton of energy by beating their number one competitor in the Western Conference the Denver Nuggets in OT. SGA returned triumphantly following a long absence due to injury, he will look to lead his team to an easy win on Sunday in Dallas. The Thunder still have a few notable players out injury, including Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Williams. Their last trip to Dallas saw them win by just 7 points back in late October, they do lead the regular season series 2-0 ahead of Sunday’s 3rd and final meeting.

Dallas has split their last 4 games coming into this one, despite a tough injury situation which has seen their rookie and leader Cooper Flagg miss multiple games. The foot injury has kept him out for over 2 weeks of play now, and his ROY award is in jeopardy with Kon Knueppel playing extremely well for the Charlotte Hornets. We probably won’t see Flagg return on Sunday, but I would imagine it’s happening this upcoming week at some point. Despite all their troubles this season the Mavs are still 16-16 ATS in home games this season, playing hard on the defensive end as they don’t really have a consistent three-ball.

A blowout is expected here, the oddsmakers have favored the road team by 15.5 points. I don’t believe the Mavs will go away without a fight here though, the last 6 meetings have seen them cover 4 times. OKC’s 31-30 ATS record is far from convincing from a bettors’ perspective, so I’ll take the Mavericks plus the points here.

OKC Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Predictions: Mavericks +15.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The news coming out of Philadelphia once again isn’t good, Joel Embiid just got ruled out for the next 3 games with an oblique injury. That’s just the latest in line of a variety of injuries that have slowed down the Philly big man, he will be dearly missed in Sunday’s affair with the Boston Celtics at TD Garden. Following a slow start out of the break and a 4-game losing streak, the Sixers have turned things around with 3 wins on the bounce vs Minnesota, Indiana and Miami. This team’s form has been very erratic and unpredictable this season, I would go as far as saying they are the Minnesota Timberwolves of the Eastern Conference with the way they’ve performed this season.

Meanwhile, the Celtics have been a lot more stable despite their best player not playing a single game this season and their coaching staff deserves a lot of credit for that. Jaylen Brown’s breakout season hasn’t gone unnoticed, he is very much a top 4 NBA MVP candidate this season along with SGA, Joker and Cade. Boston’s only slip up after the break happened in Denver where they got beat by 19 points at the hands of the Nuggets, in a 2nd night of a back-to-back scenario. Things returned to normal with a dominant 148-111 win over the Nets the other day, Boston went off for 22 threes made in that game and a field goal percentage of over 66%. Doing that against a tanking Nets team is hardly a measuring stick, but it’s always nice to get a big win in preparation for a big game.

Philadelphia does lead the regular season series 2-1, they also stole a game at TD Garden on opening night by a point back in late October. The fact that they can lose by 8 points here and still cover is very tempting, the 3 meetings this season so far have been decided by just a combined 4 points. I guess it makes more sense to back the underdogs here, so let’s give Philadelphia the benefit of the doubt and back the Sixers plus the points.

 Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics Predictions: 76ers +9 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Last night the New Orleans Pelicans were able to take down the Utah Jazz. Now on the second night of a back-to-back set, they will find it much more difficult to take down the Los Angeles Clippers. For starters, Zion Williamson left last nights game injured after just 11 minutes and is unlikely to play in this one. The Pelicans also have a points differential of -8.5 in games they have played with no nights rest this season. On top of that, they also have just 8 wins on the road this season, with a point differential in those games of minus-7. With the factors tonight, that differential could be set to get worse.

The Clippers seemed to have found their second scoring option behind Kawhi Leonard, with Bennedict Mathurin averaging 20.7 points per game over his last 6 outings. Considering that Leonard dropped 34-points the last time he took on this Pelicans team, the visitors will not be able to afford simply locking in on him. Over the last 10 games the Pelicans have been leading the league in fast break points per game. However, with fatigue playing a factor, expect those points to be much harder for them to come by today. Take the Clippers to win by margin in this one.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Los Angeles Clippers prediction: Clippers -9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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With 2 wins in 3 games the tank has been put on hold for the Sacramento Kings, but only briefly. The Kings are only doing themselves a disservice by winning games at this point, the Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets both have aspirations for that number one pick in the upcoming draft and they’re just 1.5 and 2 games away respectively. Sunday sees the Kings take on the Lakers in the 3rd and final meeting between the two sides this season, with Los Angeles leading 2-1. The Kings did win the most recent meeting back in mid-January, but I find it hard to believe they can split a season series with a top 6 teams in the Western Conference.

LA just ended a 3-game losing streak with a big win vs the shorthanded Warriors, JJ Redick and co. came under a lot of criticism after losing to a Phoenix Suns team that was without two of its best players. The main storyline in LA right now is the form of center Deandre Ayton, or the lack of one. He’s had back-to-back single digit scoring games, that’s just not going to cut it for a player of his stature. Thankfully he gets to pump up his numbers against a weak Kings team here, Sacramento ranks 3rd for points allowed in the paint this season, giving up 54.2 per game in that area. Ayton is averaging 18 points and 11.2 rebounds in 5 meetings against this team, I’m counting on him to turn it around on Sunday.

A dominant Lakers win should never come in question here. Their trio of Doncic, LeBron and Reaves is healthy and playing, they are the better team than the Kings are in all facets of the basketball game right now. We’ve seen 6 Lakers wins in 7 meetings, and they’ve also covered 6 times during this stretch. Sacramento has just 2 wins in 19 games overall and is 2-8 straight up in 10 games on the road. I’m laying the points with the Lakers in this one.

Sacramento Kings vs LA Lakers Predictions: Lakers -12.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The San Antonio Spurs have been the hottest team in the NBA, winning 11 straight games. It is no surprise that during the last 10 games they lead the league in both offensive and defensive ratings. The challenge to slow them down will fall to the New York Knicks at home. While they are one of the powerhouses of the Eastern Conference this season, they have fallen against elite teams in recent games. Losses against the Detroit Pistons and the Cleveland Cavaliers demonstrate just that. It will be a monumental task for them to overcome that streak up against a team playing the type of basketball the Spurs have been.

A problem the Knicks have been facing is efficiency, with the team ranking 14th in true shooting percentage over the last 10 games. The Spurs are not a team that will give them many additional or easy chances. During that stretch of games the visitors are in the top 10 of fewest allowed points in the paint, on fast breaks, off turnovers and second chance points. With the team 2nd in true shooting percentage themselves, that difference in efficiency should prove telling. Victor Wembanyama has been a menace blocking shots of late, with 4 or more in 4 of his last 5 games. Over the last 10 games the Knicks are just middle of the pack in 3-point percentage and could struggle getting him to vacate the paint. Back the Spurs to cover as a result.

San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks prediction: Spurs -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Spurs -2.5.

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The Cleveland Cavaliers enter this matchup as one of the Eastern Conference’s most complete teams, ranking near the top of the league in offensive efficiency at roughly 119-120 points per game while also holding opponents to around 110 per contest. Their balance has been the difference — multiple double figure scorers, strong interior protection, and disciplined half court execution. Cleveland has consistently controlled the glass and limited second chance opportunities, a key factor in several recent double digit wins. They’ve also dominated this head to head series, winning 11 of the last 12 meetings, including a decisive 112-84 victory over Brooklyn earlier this month. At home, the Cavaliers have been particularly sharp, playing with pace offensively while maintaining defensive structure.

The Brooklyn Nets continue to navigate a rebuilding season and have struggled on both ends of the floor, sitting near the bottom of the conference standings. Brooklyn averages just over 108 points per game and has had difficulty generating consistent half court offense, often relying heavily on perimeter shooting. Defensively, they’ve been vulnerable in transition and on the defensive glass, areas Cleveland is well equipped to exploit. The Nets have also dropped several recent games by double digits, highlighting the gap in depth and efficiency between these teams. Unless Brooklyn can dramatically improve its shooting efficiency and limit turnovers, this matchup heavily favors Cleveland’s structure and firepower.

Cavaliers vs Nets Prediction: Cavaliers -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number

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The Chicago Bulls have been on a terrible run of form having lost 11 straight games. Their inability to get stops has been a major reason for this, with the team down in 29th in defensive rating over the last 10 games. Today they will get the chance to take on another team in the bottom 10 of the league in that category, as the Milwaukee Bucks are down in 23rd. With the hosts being in the top half of the league in pace of play during that stretch, both sides should see no shortage of opportunities to test each other’s defensive resolve.

The hosts in this one have had real issues stopping teams in transition, ranking 27th in opponent fast break points per game. That should act as an incentive for the Bucks to get out and attack in transition. With the team possessing guards with great scoring potential like Kevin Porter Jr. and Ryan Rollins, they should welcome this opportunity. Both teams also happen to be successful from deep of late, ranking 5th and 6th in 3-pointers per game, respectively. With all things considered, they should be able to combine for over 229 points, especially if the Bucks start pushing the tempo.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Chicago Bulls prediction: Over 229 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 230.

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The Denver Nuggets hope their trend of alternating wins and losses continues when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday afternoon. Denver has gone back-and-forth over its past 9 games dating all the way back to February 4 and it most recently lost at Oklahoma City 127-121 in overtime on Friday, so you could say it is due for a win. The Nuggets should be able to get it, too, so my Timberwolves vs Nuggets pick is for the home team to win and cover. This marks the fourth meeting between these 2 Western Conference rivals, with Denver sweeping the regular-season head-to-head series 3-0. It got the job done 127-114 at Minnesota in October, 123-112 at Minnesota in November and 142-138 in overtime at home on Christmas Day.

Minnesota is in solid form right now, but not to the extent that you would expect the visitors to suddenly get over the hump in what is clearly a bad matchup for this club. Although the Timberwolves are 5-1 SU in their last 6 contests, they got blown out at home by Philadelphia 135-108 last weekend. Moreover, Julius Randle (21.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 5.3 apg) is questionable for Sunday due to back spasms. That would obviously be a huge loss down low against Nikola Jokic and company. Speaking of Jokic, he has scored at least 30 points in 3 of the last 4 games and is coming off a triple-double (23 points, 17 rebounds, 14 assists) against OKC. Give me Denver — and that’s even if Randle ends up taking the floor.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets prediction: Denver -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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