NBA Picks

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The Celtics are 41-21 with one of the league’s best defensive profiles, allowing just 107.1 points per game. Meanwhile, Dallas is 21-41 and has lost 5 straight. Add in the prospect of Tatum returning to the C’s and on paper, that explains the line. However, a spread this large also assumes Boston turns control into margin, and those are not always the same thing.

There are two market forces working here. First, Boston is coming off an ugly 118-89 home loss to Charlotte, which naturally invites bounce-back money. Second, Dallas looks toxic to casual bettors thanks to their losing streak, though the Mavericks just lost by 1 point to Orlando on Thursday. That matters, because it shows they are still capable of dragging games into the kind of possession-by-possession grind that helps huge underdogs cover in an inflated range like this one. That is the case for here. I am not saying that Dallas is good enough to threaten Boston consistently, but the quantity of points on offer is asking the Celtics to maintain intensity for a full 48 minutes. After the Charlotte debacle, Boston’s position is more about restoring order than winning at margin. Overlay.

Mavericks vs Celtics prediction: Mavericks +15.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +15.

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The market might have finally caught up to the Hornets. Charlotte is laying a significant tag here, and the number tells you the market is pricing in the Hornets’ current heater more than the full shape of this matchup. The Hornets have won 6 straight, including a 118-89 road demolition of Boston, and their recent form has been loud enough to create an overreaction. As a result, a competent Miami team is taking back a huge number.

The sharper angle is beyond the price itself, it’s also stylistic. Charlotte’s recent surge has been fueled by pace, confidence, and clean offensive stretches, but Miami can match it. The Heat don’t need to outshine Charlotte athletically; they need to be able to slow things down or speed it up and score in bunches to keep the Hornets out of rhythm. The Heat can do both. Miami has also won three straight, but beating Brooklyn twice this week won’t move the needle like blowing out the Celtics will. Nevertheless, laying this price with Charlotte is buying recency. Charlotte may well win, but this line asks backers to buy high on the Hornets against a veteran team that will make them earn separation. Simply put, this is too many points.

Heat vs Hornets prediction: Miami Heat +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Suns are 35-27 and 20-13 at home, still trying to climb out of the play-in range, while New Orleans is 20-44 and just 9-23 on the road. This is not just a talent gap spot; it is a schedule spot where the better team is also offered at an equitable price.

New Orleans beat Sacramento 133-123 on Thursday and got a huge offensive burst from a balanced box score, with 7 Pelicans in double figures. However, it was against the lowly Kings, and Sacramento outscored New Orleans in the first and fourth quarter. The Kings, in case anyone forgot, are also a team once accused of tanking to the nth degree. They are perhaps the most maligned side in the league at the moment.

Nevertheless, a team coming off the kind of explosive production we saw from the Pels often look enchanting in their follow-up, but it can mask how hard it is to reproduce that same offensive sharpness, especially against a physical team like the Suns who are elite on defense. The Suns didn’t help their cause losing to Chicago recently, but still they do not need to do much to impose their will here. The Suns just need to keep this game in the half-court, play efficient, and make New Orleans chase. If they do that, the gap in these teams will do the heavy lifting. The best part is because Phoenix just got clipped by the Bulls, we get them at a discount. Lay the points.

Pelicans vs Suns prediction: Suns -6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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New York’s 3-game winning streak came to an end on Wednesday with a narrow 3-point loss to the defending champion Thunder at home. However, I don’t believe the team will be disheartened following the setback. It was able to erase a double-digit deficit down to 1 point during the second half. Jalen Brunson and company now head to Ball Arena in hopes of sweeping the regular-season series against the Nuggets, whom they beat in double-OT earlier this season. In general, the Knicks have a solid streak going on versus Denver — winning 6 of the last 7 meetings and also covering as many times. One advantage the Knicks might have here lies in the fact that the Nuggets are playing their second game in as many days.

Denver is 9-3 SU in 12 such games this season, so it might not even matter that they are playing without rest. Nikola Jokic and company successfully beat the Lakers last night and also covered as -5.5 favorites behind another triple-double from the 3-time MVP. As good as the Knicks have been in head-to-head meetings, they too have had issues guarding the Nuggets’ big man. The first meeting saw him score 30 points, collect 14 rebounds and dish out 10 assists. It was his second triple-double in 4 meetings. The last 10 head-to-head matchups have seen him average 26.1 points, 10.6 rebounds and 6.8 assists. One thing that is concerning if you are a Nuggets fan is the fact that opponents have shot 39.6% from 3 in their last 3 games. That’s almost 5% up from their season average of 35.1%, which ranks ninth in the NBA.

The 2 teams are evenly matched, I give a slight edge to the Knicks only because Denver is playing on the second night of a back-to-back and Aaron Gordon is still missing from the lineup. His absence will make scoring a lot easier on the likes of OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges. New York edges it out in a close finish.

Knicks vs Nuggets prediction: New York -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The losing streak of the Indiana Pacers has reached 7 games in a row, with their last 4 defeats coming by double-digits. Ivica Zubac returned to LA in street clothes as his new team faced his old team in the Clippers. Indy was routed by 23 points on Wednesday despite getting 29 points from Pascal Siakam. Things could get a lot more difficult on Friday if Siakam isn’t able to play, as he is officially listed as day-to-day with a wrist issue. This is nothing new for the Pacers, who are already missing a bunch of key players, including Nembhard and Nesmith. They’ve not had the best of times versus the Lakers either, winning just once in 6 meetings. At Crypto.com Arena, they’re just 2-9 ATS in 11 visits.

Meanwhile, the Lakers lost a tough one in Denver last night, falling to the Nuggets 120-113 as +5.5 underdogs. Luka Doncic had 27 points, 11 rebounds and 7 assists, while LeBron James surpassed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for most field goals made all-time in the NBA, but none of that was enough to slow down Nikola Jokic who just destroyed the Lakers down low. Deandre Ayton left the game after just 5 mins with a knee injury, and he is likely to sit this one out against Indiana. This could force the Lakers to play small and in theory a lot faster than what we’re accustomed to seeing from them. I actually like the sound of that plan, that’s where the talent of Luka Doncic excels the most.

In 10 games played with no rest this season the Lakers are 5-5 SU, but they did win their last 3 of 4 such games by 24, 17 and 25 points vs Sacramento, Toronto and Atlanta. Indiana’s Net Rating reads -15.3 during this 7-game losing streak, only two other teams in the NBA are worse than them in this stretch. I’ll back the Lakers even though they’re playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back.

Pacers vs Lakers prediction: Lakers -10.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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