NBA Picks

After last night’s Orlando win, the Hawks have now fallen down to 8th place in the East standings, losing home court advantage in the first play-in tournament game against the Magic. Now they face the Bucks for the 5th and final time this year, the two teams have split the 4 meetings so far. Injuries have derailed both sides over the past few weeks, Atlanta could be without Trae Young and Clint Capela here, while Larry Nance Jr. and Jalen Johnson have been ruled out for the season for a while now. On the road in Milwaukee the Hawks have recorded just 4 wins in 17 visits.

With 3 losses the Bucks have fallen down to 6th in the standings, the number 4 seed is looking very unlikely at this point as Indiana is now 1.5 games ahead with just 9 games remaining. I say unlikely because the Bucks just haven’t looked the same since they lost Damian Lillard to his blood clot issue, it is still unknown if Dame will even play another minute this season. In the last 3 games without him the Bucks have struggled defending the perimeter, plus they’ve dropped a few places in the offensive efficiency standings as well. Giannis Antetokounmpo returning to the line-up is the only positive for this team going into Sunday’s match-up.

Consistency has eluded both teams as of late, but I feel like the sense of urgency is far greater for Milwaukee in this game. Giannis had a triple-double the last time these two met, missing his last game means that he comes into this one fresh as he looks to carry the Bucks to a win. He had a triple-double in the last meeting, let’s hope he can produce something similar here. I’m backing Milwaukee.

Hawks vs Bucks Predictions: Bucks -4 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

After picking up their 10th win in 11 games, the Rockets are now aiming to sweep the regular season series from the Suns on Sunday. Ime Udoka’s men have been one of the most consistent teams in the league lately, just at the right time as the Western Conference standings are heating up. Alperen Sengun in particular has played really well during this stretch, he might be in line to have a big game as he faces a Phoenix side that’s struggled containing opposing big men all year long. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS/SU in the last 5 meetings as well.

The Suns have once again made their own lives very difficult after back-to-back losses to Boston and Minnesota. There is no shame in losing to either of those two teams, but the fashion in which they did casts doubt over this team’s play-in tournament aspirations. They are still only 1 game behind the struggling Kings, however Phoenix has the toughest remaining strength of schedule in the NBA and the odds are against them in terms of making it into the postseason. One glimmer of hope lies in the fact that this team is 6-1 SU in their last 7 home games, but they’ve covered the spread just 14 times in 37 home games so far.

Houston’s wins were never in doubt in the first 2 meetings, they are just the more in-form team here and have been the more reliable bet. So far on the year they’ve covered the spread in 20 of 36 road games, make it 21 on Sunday.

Rockets vs Suns Predictions: Rockets -2.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Sacramento Kings took care of business in their last outing, comfortably taking down the Portland Trail Blazers. Today they will be visiting the Orlando Magic looking to continue the same positive vein of form. The Magic are coming into this after a disappointing loss to the Dallas Mavericks at home. They are facing injuries to the likes of Cole Anthony, which means they have had to start Cory Joseph at point guard. He has failed to score more than 6 points in 5 of his last 7 games. Performances like that puts a major strain on Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero to carry the scoring for the hosts. Against a team featuring a bunch of players that could go off for 20 points any given night including Malik Monk, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis, the Magic appear to be in for a struggle.

The Magic have had real issues spacing the court. Over the last 10 games they have ranked just 27th in 3-point percentage and 28th in 3-pointers made. During that same stretch of games, the Kings are in the top 10 of the league in opponent points in the paint. It should mean that Orlando could have issues scoring on 2 levels, leaving it to rely heavily on inefficient long 2-point jump shots. The visitors have enough offensive weapons to create separation and pick up the road win.

Kings vs Magic prediction: Sacramento ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125.

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The Miami Heat have woken up from their mid-season crisis and have now won 3 games in a row. They have a seemingly easy game on Saturday in Philadelphia, facing the tanking 76ers — who have lost 6 games in a row. There are quite a few significant players out for Miami right now, most notably Kevin Love, Duncan Robinson, Andrew Wiggins and Nikola Jovic. But even with those players out, the Heat are still 7.5-point favorites. Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro have carried most of the load offensively this season, both should be in line for solid outputs as Herro has averaged 24 points in the 2 meetings with Philly, while Adebayo is producing 17.4 points per game on the road this season.

There’s not much positivity around the 76ers at the moment. They are in full on tank mode, hoping to somehow jump over the Brooklyn Nets in the race for the top 6 lottery odds in the upcoming draft. In Wednesday’s 119-114 loss to the Wizards we saw a blatant tank job by Philadelphia, I would not be surprised if that game was under investigation by the league. Philly has covered just twice in 11 home games; it is also on a 16-game losing streak against teams from the Eastern Conference.

Anything other than a big Miami Heat win would be a surprise. Sure they have lost 5 in a row on the road, but this recent run of 3 wins in a row has stabilized them a bit. The Sixers are the perfect opponent for them to continue their solid play in hopes of leaping over the Chicago Bulls in the race for the ninth seed in the East. I’ll happily take Miami.

Heat vs 76ers prediction: Miami -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Once adversity hits, the Boston Celtics seem to take it up a notch every single time. Exactly this happened in their most recent game as they took down the Phoenix Suns 132-102 despite being without their best player in Jayson Tatum. The ankle injury he sustained in the win over Sacramento has not yet healed, andwe could see the C’s once again without him as they take on the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday. That should not present a problem for this team; Boston is 6-1 SU playing without Tatum this year and 13-2 SU since the start of last year. The likes of Porzingis, Pritchard, Hauser and company all get extra shots in Tatum’s absence, which should benefit Boston down the line in the postseason as all those players find their rhythm.

Ever since Victor Wembanyama went down for the year with his blood clot issue, the Spurs have had just one mission on their mind and that is to develop their young players as much as possible in these remaining few weeks of the regular season. They have done a solid job at that with the likes of Stephon Castle and Devin Vassell, I’m sure we’ll see the result of that in the coming years as the Spurs continue to build a contender. Crossing the 30-game win total was another solid accomplishment. The Spurs have a strong 19-17 SU record in home games this season. Interestingly enough, they boast a impressive 9-3 SU record in the last 12 meetings with Boston at the Frost Bank Center. They will want to make amends, too, following back-to-back losses to Detroit and Cleveland.

Boston dominated the first meeting by 13 points in mid February and it is looking to maintain the pressure on the Cavs in the race for the #1 seed in the East. San Antonio is playing without any pressure; it has actually been solid when it comes to covering the spread at 4-1 ATS in 5 games. However, the C’s have won 4 in a row by double-digits and are looking to sweep the rest of the his road trip. With them knocking down 19+ 3s in 3 straight, I’m confident they can blow out San Antonio today.

Celtics vs Spurs prediction: Boston -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Oklahoma City Thunder will try to extend their current winning streak to 9 when they welcome in the Indiana Pacers Saturday night. The Thunder have already locked in the top spot of the Western Conference; the only thing left to play for is history. If the Thunder manage to win out the rest of the games in their schedule, they can claim to be third team ever to win 70 games in an NBA season. The defensively tough Thunder will have to get it done against an efficient and explosive Pacers offense tonight. Indiana is coming off its biggest offensive scoring output of the year last game. It defeated the Washington Wizards 162-109 in its highest-scoring game in franchise history. The Pacers made 27 3-pointers and shot 64% from the field. If the Pacers can channel even a little bit of that offensive magic tonight, they could pose a threat against the Thunder.

These 2 teams are two of the most efficient offenses in the NBA. They both rank in the top 5 in the NBA in the least number of turnovers surrendered by percentage per game. The last time they met was back in December, when the Thunder dominated the turnover battle forcing 11 turnovers and outscoring the Pacers 17-3 in points off turnovers. The Pacers still have a lot left to play for this season, sitting currently in the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference. If the Pacers can finish their season strong, they have the chance to host an opening-round playoff series for the first time since 2020 — when they were swept in 4  games by the Miami Heat. If the Pacers want to keep tonight’s game close, points off turnovers will be major key in trying to shock the Thunder.

Pacers vs Thunder: Oklahoma City +10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It’s not often that a team 15 games over .500 and in prime position for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs fires its head coach. But that is exactly what the Memphis Grizzlies did with Taylor Jenkins on Friday. Although the Grizzlies are 44-29, they are 2-5 SU in their last 7 contests and have been getting blown out by double-digits on a consistent basis. Of course, the fact that it wasn’t Jenkins’ fault makes the decision all the more shocking. Ja Morant has missed the last 6 games because of a hamstring injury. If there is any good news for Memphis, it’s that Morant has a good chance of returning on Saturday.

The first game of the post-Jenkins era will come against the visiting Los Angeles Lakers, with the winner to move into sole possession of the all-important fourth place in the Western Conference. The Lakers are also playing poorly at the moment, but the key is that both LeBron James and Luka Doncic are healthy. When those 2 guys are on the court, they can beat anyone on any day — even if Austin Reaves (questionable due to an ankle issue) is out. Given Memphis’ recent woes and now the coaching turmoil, my Lakers vs Grizzlies pick is Los Angeles to cover +2.5 points. I would proceed with caution and perhaps even modify the pick if Morant plays and Reaves doesn’t. But if either Morant is out or Reaves is in (and certainly if both of those things happen), this immediately becomes a max play.

Lakers vs Grizzlies prediction: Los Angeles +2.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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