NBA Picks

The Golden State Warriors and New Orleans Pelicans will meet for the third time this season Friday night. The Warriors won both of the first two games between these teams. Golden State defeated the Pelicans 124-106 and 104-89 in the two contests. This will be the first time the Warriors and Pelicans are playing in New Orleans. This will also be the third NBA Cup game played by each team. The Warriors are 2-0 and lead group C, while the Pelicans are 1-1. The Warriors are coming into this game hot, winning 9 of their last 11 games. The Pelicans have been on the opposite side of the spectrum, losing 9 of their last 10 and 3 straight losses. The Warriors are generally healthy heading into this matchup, while the Pelicans will be without Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones, Jose Alvarado, and potentially Brandon Ingram.

The Pelicans have struggled to find offense with so many starters benched with injuries. What may be the most telling for the Pelican’s current situation is to look at the success they had in a 128-100 loss to Cleveland on Wednesday. Rookie guard Antonio Reeves was asked to play 40 minutes and scored 34 points. Despite this unexpected outcome the Pelicans still lost by nearly 30. I don’t see where else the Pelicans can turn towards for offense. It shows in the numbers. The Pelicans have only managed to score 100 points per game in their last 10 games, the lowest in the NBA in that time frame. With how well the Warriors have played and scored the basketball, I foresee another blowout loss for the Pelicans.

Warriors -9.5 available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Tensions are always high whenever the Pacers and Bucks play, with both teams being 6-9 entering Friday’s game we’re guaranteed yet another high intense match-up. The Pacers have been in a bit of a slump lately winning just once in 5 games and allowing 130 points in back-to-back games. This team cannot catch a break on the injury front, a total of 6 players are in danger of missing this game. Haliburton and co. had just 5 threes in their latest loss to Houston, that’s not something you want ahead of a game in Milwaukee where you’ve gone 5-15 SU in your last 20 visits.

A stable three-point shot with at least 13 threes made over their last 5 games has lifted Milwaukee to a 4-1 SU run which is exactly what this team needed. The team also received some good news on the injury front with Khris Middleton being cleared to play following his ankle issues, however it might take him some time to get into basketball shape before he comes back. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been on a roll this month, he’s got a 41 and 59 point game in 2 of his last 4 outings. He always plays with an extra step against the Pacers, in the last 5 meetings the Greek Freak is averaging 42.2 points and 13 rebounds per game.

Indiana has been in a slump lately, winning just twice in 9 road games and covering just 3 times. The Bucks have the momentum on their side, I am really liking what I’m seeing in their last 5 games. Take Milwaukee at home to cover.

Bucks -4.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Sacramento might be just 2-2 SU in their last 4 games, but the two losses vs Atlanta and Minnesota were by just 1 and 4 points. There is optimism that DeMar DeRozan will be back ahead of tonight game against his hometown team the Clippers, that’ll be a major boost for the Kings’ offense. Without DeRozan it has been pretty much the De’Aaron Fox show over the past few games. The point guard is averaging 45.7 points per game in his last 3 outings, I think the Kings are better off when he is a distributor of the ball rather than a 40+ point per game scorer. Sacramento is a 2.5 point underdog here, which does sound tempting for a team that’s gone 4-2 ATS in their last 6 away from home.

It looks like the Clippers have finally settled into their brand new arena as they’ve now won 3 games in a row. Their latest victim were the Orlando Magic and for the 2nd consecutive game an opponent failed to crack the 100 point mark vs LA. The play of center Ivica Zubac has been a particular highlight, especially on the defensive end where he’s on a streak of 4 straight games with double digit boards. I’m curious to see how this Clippers defense holds up against the 6th best ranked offense in the NBA.

I feel like the Kings match-up pretty well vs LA here. Fox should have his way against Harden who isn’t really a lockdown defender these days. DeRozan has the height advantage over Norman Powell and Domantas Sabonis is just as good, if not better than Zubac in the rebounding department. I’ll be backing the road team here.

Kings -2.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Detroit Pistons and Charlotte Hornets square off in what feels like a coin-flip matchup, with both teams entering the night nearly identical in pace, scoring, and record. The Pistons are slight -1 favorites, a number mirroring their last meeting on November 6th—a game Charlotte won outright. Handicapping trends suggest that when the same line is offered from the previous meeting, the opposite result often follows, giving Detroit a reason to back.

The Hornets, however, boast strong trends in their favor. Charlotte is 14-6 in their last 20 matchups against Detroit, and short-lined underdogs (three points or fewer) are a perfect 5-0 this week ATS. Moreover, short-money line favorites like Detroit (-115) had an unusually high win rate of 67% last week, well above the season average of 43%, and are potentially due for regression. The spread offers no distinct edge, leading us to the total.

Both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in scoring, field goal %, and three-point %—seemingly a recipe for another low-scoring affair. But here’s the catch: Charlotte is 3rd in three-pointers made per game (16.3), while middling at 14th in percentage. This means they take a lot of 3-pointers. Familiarity with Detroit may unlock a sharper shooting night at home in the Spectrum Center. The oddsmakers moved the line from 223 in their first meeting to 221 tonight…it feels like a vulnerable spot for the streak to snap. Call me crazy, but I’m banking on a few extra shots falling tonight in North Carolina.

Pistons vs Hornets Prediction: Over 221 (-108) at the time of publishing, playable at this number.

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The Minnesota Timberwolves will travel north of the border tonight to take on the Toronto Raptors in a nonconference matchup. This is the second time these two teams have met this season. The Timberwolves won the first game on their home court 112-101. The Timberwolves led for the entirety of that game behind 24 points from both Julius Randle and Anthony Edwards. It is also worth mentioning that the Raptors did not have RJ Barrett in that game. We’ll see if a change in the home court and personnel affects tonight’s outcome. The Timberwolves have a record of 3-4 on the road this season, and the Raptors have a home record of 3-4.

A good term to describe the Minnesota Timberwolves to start the 2024-2025 season has been inconsistent. After the trade of Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota is trying to find its rhythm with new pieces Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. A positive for this team has been Edwards’ shooting from behind the arc. He currently leads the NBA in makes from three-point range with 4.8 per game. What has been different this season for Minnesota, at least within the first 14 games, is their defense. Last season, the Timberwolves led the NBA in defensive rating and did so with a wide margin. This season, they still rank within the top half of NBA defenses but have fallen to 12th. I expect the Wolves to reclimb their way up the rankings with Rudy Gobert and Edwards, but at this time, they are lacking too much consistency to back them to win by 7+ on the road.

Timberwolves vs Raptors prediction: Toronto +6.5 available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Losing Paolo Banchero to an injury was devastating for the Orlando Magic, or at least it looked that way. They initially lost 4 straight without him before responding with a 6-game win streak because they played some of the best defense in the NBA this season. However, that streak ended last night against the Clippers, with the Magic failing to keep up with the pace by scoring just 93 points. Now they face the Lakers, who are much more potent on offense, and Orland is playing their second game in as many nights. The momentum is clearly on the Lakers’ side here.

Los Angeles has racked up 10 wins in their first 14 games this season and is currently the only remaining undefeated team at home in the Western Conference. Anthony Davis‘ play has been a major reason why the Lakers are so good, as he averages 30.7 points per game, marking the highest of his career. I don’t see the Wagner bros stopping him here; in his last 2 games against Orlando, AD has totaled 54 points, 32 rebounds and 10 blocks. The Magic have just 2 wins in 10 meetings with the Lakers, plus their road form hasn’t been all that good this season (2-6 overall). LA is a reliable 5-2 ATS in home games this season, and winning by 6+ points is very doable here, so let’s back them to cover.

Magic vs Lakers prediction: Los Angeles -5.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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