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8:00 PM ET

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Timberwolves

Spurs

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Point Spread Pick

SA Spurs -10.5(-110)

Reasoning

The series score says 2–2, but you would have thought otherwise as the line is telling a very different story entering Game 5. Despite Minnesota already stealing a game in San Antonio and three of the four contests being decided by 7 points or fewer, with Minnesota winning Game 4, the Spurs are still laying a double-digit number. That is not a random oversight, it is a strong indication of where oddsmakers believe the true power gap lies between these teams.

In many ways, San Antonio may feel this series should already be close to finished. Minnesota capitalized on a flat Spurs performance in Game 1 and then ground out a Game 4 win behind elite defensive prowess and favorable shot variance. But over a longer sample size, San Antonio has consistently generated the cleaner offense and higher-quality looks. The oddsmakers knew that Minnesota would look irresistible in this range and they priced them as such regardless. The real question one should ask is: Are the Timberwolves a sucker bet? In this case, I think so. The line is all but saying that the oddsmakers are expecting the Spurs to reassert control and push Minnesota to the brink. Lay the points with the hosts.

Timberwolves vs Spurs Game 5 prediction: San Antonio -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -11.

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Same Game Parlay

Point Spread

MIN Timberwolves +10.5

Player Threes Made

A. Dosunmu (MIN) - Over 2.5 threes

Player Threes Made

V. Wembanyama (SA) - Over 1.5 threes

Reasoning

Timberwolves vs Spurs parlay pick: Timberwolves +10.5 (-115)

Of the 4 games in this series, 3 of them have been decided by single digits. The only one that was a blowout was the Game 2 desperation win for San Antonio, as they crushed Minnesota 133-95. I do not anticipate such a thing happening in Game 5, as the last 2 games played at Target Center are a clear indicator that there’s really not much to separate these 2 teams.

This has now become a best-of-three series, and while injuries might have affected the Timberwolves this postseason, they’re showing great determination in overcoming adversity. Experience is definitely in their hands here, as this is one of the things people said the Spurs are lacking going into the postseason. Ant Man and co. have been to the West Finals the past 2 seasons, and we’ve already seen them win once in San Antonio in this series, so who says they cannot do it again? Backing them as double-digit underdogs is a no-brainer for me here.

Timberwolves vs Spurs SGP pick: Ayo Dosunmu 3+ made threes (+300)

Dosunmu has been limited by his injury in this series, but he’s showing signs of progress after scoring double-figure points in the last two games. He also cleared this line in Game 3, doing it for the 4th time this postseason in 8 games played. For a bet that cashes 50% of the time, we are getting a massive +300 odds here, and in my opinion that is definitely worth exploring in a pivotal Game 5.

Dosunmu has already proven his worth to this team after the mid-season acquisition from Chicago. We all still remember his 43-point explosion in Game 4 of Round 1 against Denver, when the Timberwolves lost both Donte DiVincenzo and Anthony Edwards to injuries. Dosunmu stepped it up by knocking down all 5 of his three-point attempts coming off the bench, so him making 3 threes here isn’t out of the realm of possibility at all.

Timberwolves vs Spurs SGP pick: Victor Wembanyama 2+ made threes (-235)

Wemby’s inexperience showed in Game 4 as his emotions got the best of him, resulting in him elbowing Naz Reid after playing just 12 minutes. The play was ruled a Flagrant 2 foul and Wembanyama was ejected from the game, forcing his teammates and coaching staff to make adjustments on the fly. That worked well for a while, but the Timberwolves just shifted into a different gear in crunch time and pulled away.

I’m hoping the Frenchman makes amends in Game 5, as he’s shot the three-ball decently in the postseason so far, making 35.3% of his attempts in the 8 games he’s played. Aside from the Game 3 explosion where he had 39 points, the T-Wolves had done a decent job containing him close to the basket, so I think both he and his coach Mitch Johnson are smart enough to make the necessary adjustments. He’s made a pair of threes in 2 of the last 3 games in this series, while in head-to-head meetings he’s done it 4 times in the last 7 games.

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