NBA Picks

Arguably the best series of the opening round to this point has come in the Western Conference between the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets, with both games being decided by one possession. Game 1 finished with a combined 222 points, narrowly going under the total despite going to overtime, while Game 2 also went under the closing total with a combined 207 points. However, instead of going back to the well with an under on Thursday, I’m of the opinion that both teams should benefit from the extra day of rest and this extremely depressed total is just a bit too low for these offenses. 

Given that the Clippers’ defense is one of the best units in the league, the Nuggets should look to push the ball in transition off made or missed shots as much as possible. Over the first couple of games in Denver, the Nuggets were consistently successful when generating early offense, and they should make that a point of emphasis in Game 3. Despite how well the Clippers held up defensively in Game 2, I’m still anticipating a strong game for new head coach David Adelman and the Nuggets offense in the halfcourt setting as well, especially with Jamal Murray (illness) getting an extra day of rest. Nikola Jokic has put up his usual numbers in this series, but the Clippers have forced him into a number of careless mistakes, some of which happened in Game 2. I don’t expect Jokic to have back-to-back underwhelming performances in the postseason, and it helps that he’s been terrific on the road in his playoff career to this point.

On the other side of the ball, while Denver’s defensive effort is markedly improved from where it was in the regular season, this is still a bottom-10 unit in defensive rating, and those woes have particularly shown against high-level competition. That is exactly what the Clippers bring to the table with James Harden and Kawhi Leonard both turning in stellar performances in this series thus far. The Nuggets have not shown an ability to slow down either player, and that’s before Harden gets Ivica Zubac involved in the pick-and-roll game. Ultimately, I’m expecting a slight regression to the mean for Denver’s defense and plenty of efficient halfcourt offense from both sides in a game that should finish closer to 220 total points, much like we saw in Game 1.

Nuggets vs Clippers prediction: Over 213.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Pressure was on the Lakers in Game 2 to respond following a surprising loss in the opener, they did just that in what was one of the toughest battles they had all year long. The physicality went up a notch, in total 4 Laker players logged 39+ minutes and with this series now being played every other day, you have to wonder can the likes of LeBron James and co. handle this pace? The series now shifts to Minnesota for the next two games, the Lakers haven’t had much success at Target Center lately losing in their last 4 visits by a an average of 12 points per game.

I was really disappointed in the approach of the Timberwolves in Game 2, they seemed content with getting the split after wining the opener and didn’t come out with the same intensity in this one. They fell behind early by 19 points, the three-ball was non-existent at just 20% for the night, plus they also lost the rebounding battle 41-34. When you have a player like Rudy Gobert going up against an inferior rebounding team like the Lakers, you simply must win the battle on the boards. Playing in front of the home fans should fix some of those issues, plus the role players usually tend to play a bit better at home so I’m expecting big contributions from Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo and Nickeil Alexander-Walker in Game 3.

This series has been a dog fight so far, with both sides struggling to get their offenses going. The under has cashed in both postseason games so far, as well as in all four regular season meetings. With the series lead on the line I doubt either side will allow the scoring to get out of hand here, expect the intensity to increase even further in this one. Let’s stick with the trends and back the under once again.

Lakers vs Timberwolves Game 3 Predictions: Under 206.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Something has to change in the approach of the New York Knicks in this series, otherwise they might be going home after Round 1. For the 2nd game in a row they relied heavily on Jalen Brunson, and although he put in another heroic performance, the lack of help from his teammates really killed the Knicks. The bench produced just 8 points, way too few compared to the 35 the Pistons had. Karl-Anthony Towns was also a huge disappointment, going scoreless in the 2nd half, and the Knicks need to make adjustments heading into Little Caesars Arena for Game 3. They did win once there during the regular season, in a game in which they forced 22 turnovers. Perhaps that can be the blueprint for success on Thursday?

Detroit is buzzing right now. They’ll be hosting their first postseason game since 2018, just days after recording their first postseason win in over 15 years. Cade Cunningham is growing up right before our eyes – he upped his numbers to 33 points and 12 rebounds on 11-for-21 shooting in Game 2, dragging his team to the finish line. Unlike in Game 1, the Pistons weren’t afraid of the moment near the end of the game and were able to survive the late comeback by the Knicks. Dennis Schroder also deserves mentioning as the seasoned veteran hit some key shots down the stretch, which is exactly why the Pistons brought him in.

Game 3 will be all about energy for Detroit. This is now a best-of-5 series with them having home-court advantage. New York is still the favorite according to the oddsmakers and I do believe they’ll get a split over these next 2 games. In moments like these, the experience of the Knicks players should show. Only a select few Pistons players have been in games like this before and I’m afraid the lights might be too bright like they were in the series opener. I’m taking the Knicks.

Knicks vs Pistons Game 3 prediction: Knicks -1 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Oklahoma City Thunder will be looking to take a virtually insurmountable 3-0 lead over the Memphis Grizzlies in their Western Conference first-round series when these 2 teams meet again on Thursday night in Memphis. Heck, even the 2-0 advantage that the Thunder currently own is something from which the Grizzlies likely cannot come back from. This #1 vs #8 series is every bit as lopsided as the first 2 scores suggest. Oklahoma City dominated 131-80 in Game 1 before coasting to a 118-99 victory on Tuesday. The fashion in which the Thunder have prevailed is easily repeatable, too. They won the battle of the boards 54-43 in the series opener and 55-42 in Game 2. The Grizzlies got blown out again on Tuesday even though their shooting improved dramatically (42.9% from the floor and 32.3% from three-point range).

It’s not like Memphis is going to have some kind of overwhelming home-court advantage in Game 3, either. Everyone knows this series is over — including Grizzlies fans. The atmosphere is not exactly going to be rocking, especially not if the Thunder get off to a hot start (which is likely). Moreover, OKC compiled an amazing 32-8 road record during the regular season. Although this is far from a must-win situation for the Thunder, motivation should remain high because they want to close out this series as quickly as possible and rest up for what should be a more competitive 7-game set against either the Nuggets or Clippers. Finally, Oklahoma City dominated the first 2 contests even though soon-to-be NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander didn’t even go off. Jalen Williams has scored at least 20 points in 8 of the last 10 games since returning from a 2-week absence in late March. This team is a juggernaut and will likely roll again by double-digits in Game 3.

Thunder vs Grizzlies prediction: OKC -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -10.

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