NBA Picks

This total is priced as if a smooth offensive environment is expected from the opening tip, and that’s the assumption worth fading. Numbers in the high 230s can certainly get there, but they usually require sustained transition scoring, offensive continuity, or shooting stretches that stay hot for long periods. The concern is that this matchup doesn’t naturally project that kind of outcome.

Both teams have shown offensive inconsistency. When rhythm isn’t established early, that is where totals like this become vulnerable. You don’t need poor offense to stay under, you just need normal basketball, where each team hits a couple of lulls. At this benchmark, the margin for error is extremely thin. This number is priced for continuous scoring, but the game profile suggests volatility instead of rhythm. When the market asks for sustained efficiency at this level, the sharper position is to expect natural offensive variance. That makes the under the better choice in this spot.

Hawks vs 76ers prediction: Under 237.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Under 237.

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The Brooklyn Nets emerge from the all-star break looking to maintain a little bit of momentum. The Nets won 2 of the final 3 games prior to the break, while also going 2-1 against the spread. Brooklyn is also 8-7 ATS in the previous 15 games while going 3-2 ATS in the past 5 road contests. As a double-digit underdog, the Nets have failed to cash in the past 4 — but they are 4-6-1 ATS in the past 11 such games. They also covered as 11.5-point underdogs in the first meeting this season against the Cleveland Cavaliers, falling 131-124 at Barclays Center.

The Cavaliers won 5 in a row going into the all-star break while going 4-1 ATS in the span. However, the lone non-cover was as a double-digit favorite. As a favorite of 10 or more points, Cleveland is 2-11 ATS this season — including the aforementioned game against Brooklyn. While the Cavs are playing well since the acquisition of James Harden and Cleveland looks to be rounding into the form that made them a #1 seed heading into last season’s playoffs, take Brooklyn catching more than 8 buckets. Cleveland just doesn’t seem to show up when favored by 10 or more points.

Nets vs Cavaliers prediction: Brooklyn +16.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +15.5.

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The key question coming out of the break is simple: have the Hornets cooled off? Until the answer shows up on the court, the value lies in trusting the form that carried them into the pause. Charlotte was playing some of its best basketball of the season, and at this price the approach is to ride the momentum rather than assume regression.

The matchup also gives the Hornets a clear path. Houston prefers to win through physicality, rim protection, offensive rebounding and controlling the interior. Charlotte’s counter isn’t to match strength for strength, but to control the rhythm of the game. When the Hornets are at their best, they play with balance and pace awareness, pushing when advantages appear and settling into half-court flow when they don’t. Charlotte is dangerous until proven otherwise. When the Hornets dictate pace and play with balance, they are competitive with anyone. At plus money, the matchup and recent form make Charlotte a great bet for the outright win.

Rockets vs Hornets prediction: Charlotte ML (+160) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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A 5-22 road team laying points is a tough sell, yet that’s exactly the position Indiana is in here.  Asking a team with that kind of road profile to control a game away from home is a risk, especially against an opponent whose situation has changed.

Washington isn’t the same group it was earlier in the season. Heading into the all-star break, the Wizards showed a noticeable shift in approach — more structure, better effort defensively and a clearer sense of purpose on both ends. That kind of buy-in matters most at home, where role players tend to perform with more confidence and energy. This is also a price-versus-perception spot. Indiana’s road woes make them vulnerable to exactly this kind of environment. At plus money, no less, against a beatable opponent, the Wizards hold excellent value. The Pacers are favored, but the situation suggests otherwise.

Pacers vs Wizards prediction: Washington ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This first game after the break will be an interesting test for the Pistons who will be without their leading rebounder Jalen Duren who is suspended after the brawl in the win over Charlotte. Detroit enters MSG with high expectations, they’ve beaten the Knicks by 31 and 38 points in the two meetings so far this year, Thursday’s meetings finishes the 3-game regular season series. Cade Cunningham represented the Pistons in LA over the weekend, but he didn’t exert too much energy so he should be well rested for this game. MSG is one of the tougher places to win at this season, what should give the Pistons optimism is the fact that they’ve covered in 4 of their last 5 visits.

The pair of 30+ point losses certainly sting if you’re a Knicks supporter, this is the final opportunity for Jalen Brunson and co. to get something in this match-up. No Duren down low certainly helps, KAT and Mitchell Robinson got plenty of time to rest ahead of this game, so the Knicks should have the edge in this area. That plus playing at home will be their calling cards in this game, New York has failed to cover only once in 6 games at MSG. You could argue they’re also the more in form team here with 10 wins in 12 outings and a 10-2 ATS record during this stretch.

It might sound counter intuitive to have the Knicks favored here after two bad outcomes in games earlier this season vs the Pistons, but the combination of Duren being out and the revenge factor makes the Knicks an intriguing bet here. Coming out the break it might take both sides to get accustomed to playing at a high level on a regular basis, I have slightly more faith in the Knicks who will be playing in familiar surroundings on Thursday. Lay the points with New York in this one.

Pistons vs Knicks prediction: Knicks -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Toronto Raptors invade the Windy City to battle the Chicago Bulls in the first game out of the all-star break. The Raptors have had a bad taste in their collective mouths since losing 113-95 against the Detroit Pistons on Feb. 11. Toronto is just 3-4 straight up and against the spread in the past 7 games, including a 123-107 victory over the Bulls at home on Feb. 5, cashing as a -7.5 favorite. The Raptors are 4-1 SU/ATS in the past 5 road games. The injury report is rather clean, which is to be expected coming out of the break — with only reserve Sandro Mamukelashvili nursing a rib contusion.

The Bulls have Josh Giddey listed with a questionable tag due to a strained left hamstring. Chicago needs all hands on deck as it looks to pull out of a 6-game losing skid. It has also won just once in the past 10 games while going 1-9 ATS in the span. The over has connected in 5 in a row, too, in case you’re looking for a Same Game Parlay possibility. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the past 5 meetings — but with the way the Bulls headed into the all-star break, they just cannot be trusted against a Raptors team that has played well this season.

Raptors vs Bulls prediction: Toronto -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.

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The Phoenix Suns (32-23) return from the all-star break averaging 113.6 points per game while shooting 46% from the field and dishing out 25.0 assists per contest, with Devin Booker leading at roughly 25 ppg. Phoenix has thrived on ball movement and opportunistic defense, ranking among league leaders in steals and generating consistent second-chance opportunities. However, Dillon Brooks is suspended, removing a physical perimeter defender and floor spacer. Historically, the Suns have been capable of explosive offensive nights — including a 130-118 win in November against San Antonio — but first games back from the break often feature slower pace and uneven shooting rhythm as teams readjust.

The San Antonio Spurs (38-16) sit near the top of the Western Conference, averaging 118.1 ppg while allowing 112.2 ppg. Victor Wembanyama (24.4 ppg, 11.1 rpg) anchors both ends, while Keldon Johnson (38% from 3) provides perimeter spacing for a deep, healthy rotation. San Antonio can push tempo, but in a post-break opener, defensive intensity and half-court execution typically take precedence over transition scoring. With both teams capable offensively yet likely to ease back into rhythm following the layoff, this matchup profiles as more methodical than their season averages suggest.

Suns vs Spurs prediction: Under 229.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 228.5.

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The Boston Celtics (35-19) enter this matchup fully healthy and playing solid basketball, winning 7 of their last 10 while allowing just around 100.2 points per game during that stretch. Boston averages 107.3 ppg on 44.8% shooting, leaning on balanced scoring and defensive discipline rather than pure pace. Jaylen Brown is averaging 21.6 ppg and 6.0 rpg over the last 10 games, while Nikola Vucevic is contributing 16.7 points and 9.0 rebounds per contest — giving Boston reliable interior production to complement its perimeter attack. The looming storyline, however, is the Jayson Tatum return sweepstakes. While he remains sidelined (Achilles’), speculation about a potential comeback over the next few weeks could either energize the locker room or become an unnecessary distraction. For now, Boston’s depth, ball movement and defensive consistency have kept the team steady.

The Golden State Warriors (29-26) will be without Stephen Curry (knee soreness), and his absence significantly impacts its offensive ceiling. Golden State’s offensive rating drops from roughly 119.3 with Curry on the floor to 106.4 without him, and its 3-point efficiency suffers accordingly. The Warriors are just 4-6 over their last 10 games, struggling to generate consistent half-court offense even as veterans like Draymond Green and Al Horford try to stabilize the rotation. Without Curry’s gravity and late-game shot creation, Golden State becomes far more reliant on role players to manufacture offense. With Boston fully healthy and more cohesive on both ends, this feels like a spot where the Celtics’ structure and reliability win out.

Celtics vs Warriors prediction: Boston -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.

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Thursday’s game against the Kings is a gimme for the Magic who are hoping to get back on track following a disappointing loss to the Bucks in their last game before the break. It’s time to get serious in these final 30 or so games if you’re Orlando, the team isn’t exactly doing what their fans have hoped they would at this stage of the season, but thankfully there’s still enough time to turn things around. It all starts Thursday against Sacramento, but the Magic need to guard against complacency here and not fall into the trap of thinking it’ll be an easy game. The oddsmakers have them as double-digit favorites, despite them covering just once in 10 road games and winning only 2 of 8 meetings vs the Kings.

For Sacramento it’s all about continuing what started at the beginning of 2026. This is one of the more obvious tank jobs in the league at the moment, but what is interesting the league hasn’t yet decided to fine the Kings even though they’ve pulled their starters late in games on a regular basis. On top of that they’ve now also decided to shut down Zach LaVine for the rest of the season due to an injury in his hand. Scoring has been an ongoing issue all year long, in their last 2 games the Kings failed to crack the 100 point mark. Russell Westbrook is also unavailable for this game, he is the energizer bunny for this team, doing multiple things on both ends of the floor.

With Sacramento losing 14 games in a row and putting in very little effort to turn things around, I think backing Orlando is the way to go here. I’ll back the Magic players to take this game seriously enough and play with a sense of urgency coming out of the break.

Magic vs Kings prediction: Magic -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Denver is one of the teams that needed this one week break really badly, their injury situation hasn’t improved at all lately. With recharged batteries and a fully recovered Nikola Jokic they look to continue their quest of capturing the number two seed in the loaded West. San Antonio is now 3.5 games ahead, there’s plenty of time for the Nuggets to put together a win streak to catch them in my opinion. But even if that doesn’t happen, a veteran team like the Nuggets will be just fine going into the postseason as long as they get all their players back from injury. Aaron Gordon is likely to come back before the month is finished, his presence could be the key factor down the line in the postseason.

The Clippers are also hoping to make some noise in the postseason, despite trading away their main point guard and center before the trade deadline. It’s been the Kawhi Leonard show ever since those events took place and with the way he has been playing, you could argue this is the best he has looked in a Clippers uniform. The Klaw even took the ASG seriously, scoring 31 points against Team World on 84% shooting from the field. Against the Nuggets though, the Clippers might need even more than that, if we are judging them by the first two meetings this season. Denver dominated both of those games, at the Intuit Dome the Clippers fell 130-116 back in mid-November.

Slowing down Nikola Jokic will be the key for LA here, I just don’t know how they do it now that they’ve gotten rid of Ivica Zubac. Big Zu played Jokic as good as everyone in the NBA, but even with him on the roster the 3-time MVP was putting up triple-doubles. With not so much resistance to encounter down low and a fresh perspective following All-Star weekend, I have high hopes for the Joker coming into Thursday’s game. Give me the Nuggets here.

Nuggets vs Clippers prediction: Nuggets -3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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