College Basketball Picks

The Elite Eight is finally here and the two best teams in the West Region are set to square off in a game that should produce plenty of fireworks on Saturday. Florida is the top seed in the region, and the Gators certainly looked like it on Thursday, as they comfortably rolled past a Maryland team that was a top 10 team per KenPom heading into that contest. Conversely, Texas Tech is extremely fortunate to even be playing in this game, as the Red Raiders rallied from a 15-point second half deficit to force overtime in the waning seconds against Arkansas, before ultimately going on to win the game on a bucket with 7 seconds left in overtime. While I was pretty bullish on Texas Tech’s chance to make it to the Final Four heading into this tournament, this isn’t a great matchup for a Red Raiders group that is also in a pretty unfortunate situational spot on Saturday.

Texas Tech is having to play against a deep and talented Florida team on a very short turnaround, with the game tipping off approximately 40 hours after the conclusion of their overtime thriller. The Gators are not a team you want to play on this short of a turnaround, especially since they were able to stagger the minutes of their frontcourt on Thursday. That is especially important against a Texas Tech team that plays through their frontcourt duo of Darrion Williams and J.T. Toppin. With Florida having four quality bigs to throw at Williams and Toppin, there’s a real chance that the cumulative wear and tear of playing 35+ minutes against this frontcourt takes its toll on the top scoring options for Texas Tech. In a game of this magnitude, I trust that Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu and company should be able to hold their own on the defensive side, in addition to creating mismatches with their passing and cutting ability on the offensive end. Additionally, the exceptional guard trio of Will Richard, Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin form a massive edge for Todd Golden’s team, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if Florida was able to spread out Texas Tech on the perimeter and generate good looks from beyond the arc. While I’ve loved this Texas Tech team all season long, I can only look at Florida in this matchup.

Texas Tech vs Florida prediction: Florida -6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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I’ve written about this Florida team at length this season, but one thing that continues to impresses me is how the Gators can beat you in a number of different ways. In this game, it would behoove Todd Golden’s team to dictate the flow of the game by playing at their fast pace, which is not where Texas Tech is comfortable (269th in adjusted tempo). The Gators should look to get out and run as much as possible, especially since Texas Tech is not a team that creates a ton of havoc forces live-ball turnovers on defense (175th nationally in turnovers forced). And as we’ve seen on numerous occasions in this tournament, if the team holding the lead is able to play at their preferred pace, the trailing team (usually the underdog) will have to play a game that they’re uncomfortable with. At the end of the day, I’ll back the over in a game that should have plenty of free throws and 3-point attempts.

Over 155.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 156.

Alabama’s Sweet 16 performance was more than impressive, but BYU and Duke are vastly different defensively. The Cougars ended the season in the 3rd percentile in defensive rating over their last 10 games (CBB Analytics), and they were outside the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency in March (Barttorvik). Before they even met Alabama in the Sweet 16, they allowed a 3-point attempt on nearly half of opposing possessions in the last month, and their opponents made more than 35% of those attempts. While the Blue Devils don’t completely shut down the perimeter, they excel at closing out on shooters with their rangy defenders. A vast majority of Duke’s rotation is 6’6” or taller and consists of longer and quicker perimeter defenders than BYU, so expect the Blue Devils to get more hands in the faces of Alabama’s shooters.

I can’t help but think it will be extremely difficult for Alabama to replicate Thursday’s shooting success against Duke. If the Crimson Tide’s perimeter performance regresses significantly, it forces them to create more at the rim – where Duke is excellent defensively. In fact, the Blue Devils are elite at taking away rim opportunities, as they sit in the 92nd percentile in opposing rim attempts and in the 91st percentile in opposing rim shooting percentage. In addition to taking away rim attempts, Duke is excellent at defending in transition. Per Hoop-Explorer, the Blue Devils are in the 13th percentile in transition opportunities allowed (meaning they don’t allow a lot of them), and are in the 97th percentile in opposing transition efficiency. 

Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel have good individual matchups against Alabama. Grant Nelson and Mouhamed Dioubate are likely to be the primary defenders on Flagg, and they aren’t what I could consider disciplined defenders. Nelson consistently was in foul trouble in Alabama’s biggest games prior to the NCAA Tournament, and Dioubate averages 6 fouls per 40 minutes (KenPom). That could be disastrous for Alabama, as Flagg is top 85 of 2,300 Division 1 players in drawing fouls and has shot more than 200 free throw this season. Expect him to continue to be aggressive on Saturday. As for Knueppel, he has a decent size advantage on the perimeter against Alabama. He should be able to utilize that size advantage to shoot over Alabama’s defenders or create off the dribble into the paint and rim areas – where Alabama is weaker defensively. All things considered, Duke profiles as a team that can pose problems for Alabama on both ends. While this feels like a lot of points to lay against a record-breaking offense, I lean Duke’s way.

Alabama vs Duke prediction: Duke Blue Devils -6.5 (-112) at the time of publishing. Playable to -7.

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The stage is set for the East regional, as the top 2 seeds in the Duke Blue Devils and the Alabama Crimson Tide will meet in Newark on Saturday with a trip to the Final Four in San Antonio on the line. Both of these teams were excellent in their Sweet 16 wins. In fact, both scored at least 100 points with insane offensive performances. Duke scored 1.41 points per possession against Arizona, connecting on 61% of attempts inside the arc and 58% of attempts beyond it. Alabama’s performance was even better, as the Tide scored 1.43 points per possession while connecting on 25 of 51 3-point attempts. The 113-88 win over BYU broke multiple NCAA Tournament records, including most points, most 3-points made, and most 3-s attempted in a tournament game.

In my preview for the spread, I mentioned my expectation that Duke will be more deliberate in its pace of play in an attempt to limit Alabama’s possessions and transition opportunities. I believe Duke will have enough success in those areas to win by more than the spread depicts, but I don’t think it will be enough to keep this game under the total mostly because Duke should be able to score at-will against Alabama’s defense. Duke can score in any type of game flow and is the most efficient offense in the country. In fact, the only other offenses that compare to Duke’s efficiency level are Auburn and Florida, who scored an average of 97 points in 4 combined games against Alabama this season – all 4 of those games went over this number. Moreover, the Blue Devils just played to only 71 possessions against Arizona on Thursday – which is a slow-paced game per Alabama’s standards – yet they scored 100 points. In the round prior, Duke scored 89 points in a 59-possession game against Baylor. This offense can fill it up from anywhere and against anyone, and there’s a chance Cooper Flagg lives at the free throw line with undisciplined defending from the Tide’s front court, which only helps the Over. Given Alabama’s extreme offensive ceiling, I won’t be caught with another Under ticket on a game involving the Tide. Over or pass. 

Alabama vs Duke prediction: Over 172.5 (-112) at the time of publishing. Playable o 174.5.

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On Friday night in Atlanta, head coach Chris Beard and his Ole Miss Rebels get set to take on head coach Tom Izzo and his Michigan State Spartans in the South Region for what should be a fantastic game and an all around intriguing Sweet 16 slate. Beard has done a remarkable job in his second season at Ole Miss, taking a team that missed the tournament last year to now knocking on the door of an Elite 8 appearance. The Rebels entered the tournament as a #6 seed and were just 1 of the 14 teams from the SEC to earn their way to the Big Dance — including 7 teams that advanced to the Sweet 16. Playing in the most competitive conference certainly paid off for the Rebels come tournament time, holding leads as large as 22 points against North Carolina in the round of 64 and 26 points against Iowa State in the round of 32.

The journey to the Sweet 16 wasn’t quite as smooth for Izzo and the Spartys however. Michigan State took care of business with a 25-point win over Bryant in the first round but got tested in the round of 32 and trailed New Mexico for the entire first half before some second-half adjustments led to an 8-point win. This should be a great matchup that pins a pair of accomplished coaches against one another, but I’m leaning on the side of the Rebels in this contest. Ole Miss has been dominant through the first 2 games of the tournament and these teams aren’t all that different on paper.

The Rebels rank 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 21st in adjusted defensive efficiency, 131st in tempo and eighth in strength of schedule. The Spartans rank 25th offensively, fifth defensively, 170th in tempo and 26th in strength of schedule. Ole Miss is an extremely experienced team with 4 seniors and 1 junior in the starting lineup, whereas the Spartans have a pair of freshmen in Jace Richardson and Jeremy Fears Jr. starting. I think the experience of the Rebels along with their ability to force turnovers while taking care of the ball on offense will be enough to keep this a 1-possession game.

Ole Miss vs Michigan State prediction: Ole Miss +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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There are 7 Sweet 16 teams from the SEC, but only 2 are going head-to-head. The Tennessee Volunteers and Kentucky Wildcats will be facing each other for the 3rd time this season when they battle for a spot in the Elite 8 on Friday night at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Outside of the top teams in the nation, whom Tennessee obviously won’t run into as a #2 seed until at least the Elite 8, Kentucky is the last opponent the Volunteers would want to face at this stage. The Wildcats swept the regular-season series with a 78-73 road win followed by a 75-64 victory at Rupp Arena. Are those results repeatable? Probably. Kentucky held Tennessee to a combined 14-for-61 (23 percent) shooting from three-point range in those 2 contests. That is nothing out of the ordinary for the ‘Cats, who are 24th in the nation in three-point defense (30.6 percent).

Kentucky is better than its 24-11 (10-8 SEC) record suggests. Former San Diego State guard Lamont Butler missed 9 games due to injury but is looking better by the day. After doing nothing in Round 1 against Troy, Butler delivered 14 points, 5 assists, 2 rebounds and 3 steals during an 84-75 victory over Illinois. Tennessee, which ousted Wofford and UCLA in the first 2 rounds, is also playing well. However, this is clearly a matchup the Vols do not love. Is Kentucky going to beat conference rival Tennessee for the 3rd time this season? Maybe, maybe not. But getting 4.5 points, the value is definitely with UK.

Kentucky vs Tennessee prediction: Kentucky +4.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.5.

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It was a wild weekend for the Michigan Wolverines. They nearly blew a double-digit lead to UC San Diego on Thursday, scoring just 27 second-half points and ultimately winning by only 3. Then in the round of 32, the Wolverines faced a 10-point second-half deficit against Texas A&M before going on a torrid run – scoring 46 points in the final 15 minutes of the game while outscoring the Aggies 30-16 over the final 10 minutes. Head coach Dusty May and his squad now advance to the Sweet 16 in Atlanta to play the #1 overall seed Auburn Tigers less than 2 hours up I-85 from their own campus. While Michigan’s fanbase tends to travel well, I’m expecting there to be a heavy Auburn contingent at State Farm Arena. Michigan typically overpowers its opponents with size in the front court thanks to its dueling 7-footers in Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, but Auburn has the size to match the Wolverines in the post. Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell are 2 of the better post defenders in the country, both boasting top 50 marks in KenPom’s block rate out of 2,300+ Division 1 players. Head coach Bruce Pearl will also likely use Chaney Johnson on Wolf for a bit, as Johnson has freakish athleticism that would be well-utilized against the versatile Michigan big man. 

The Tigers have the advantage in this matchup when it comes to reliability from the 3-point line and in the turnover department. While Michigan has been a little bit better at taking care of the ball in the postseason, the Wolverines are still 324th in turnover rate this season, and their 14 turnovers against the Tritons in the first round almost cost them the game. Moreover, the Wolverines only have 2 real perimeter threats in Nimari Burnett and former-Tiger Tre Donaldson. On the other end, Auburn simply doesn’t give the ball away. In fact, the Tigers are pretty much the polar opposite of Michigan, as they turn the ball over on less than 14 percent of their possessions – which is 5th nationally. The Tigers also have 4 shooters that knock down at least 38% of their perimeter shots on at least 135 attempts. I see a path to success here for the Wolverines, but it would require an uncharacteristically good shooting night in combination with one of their lowest turnover rates of the season. That is a lot to ask against a deep Auburn team that gets it done on both ends of the floor and has been playing together for a couple years. Give me the Tigers to win by 10+ and advance to the Elite 8.

Michigan vs Auburn prediction: Auburn -8.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.5. 

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The Midwest Region has almost gone all chalk to this point, which sets up a very intriguing matchup between the Houston Cougars and Purdue Boilermakers in the Sweet 16 on Friday. These teams have taken very different paths to get to this point, with Purdue knocking off a couple of double-digit seeds in High Point and McNeese State, while Houston had to go through a dramatically under-seeded Gonzaga team in the Round of 32. The Cougars are certainly the more battled-tested team to to this point, and Gonzaga even profiles as a significantly better team than Purdue according to the predictive metrics. I’m certainly inclined to agree with the likes of KenPom, BartTorvik, EvanMiya and others, which certainly doesn’t hurt my handicap for this game. Given that this contest is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, this is something of a home game for Purdue, a rare sight for the lower seed in a second weekend tournament game. However, that doesn’t dissuade me from backing the much better team, specifically on the defensive side of the ball, in a game where Houston’s physicality, coaching and dominance on the glass should win out.

Purdue was able to systematically break down its first couple of opponents in the tournament with an excellent offensive gameplan, something that Matt Painter has excelled at over the years. However, Purdue was fortunate enough to get great matchups against defenses that were willing to give Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn plenty of space to get off the shots they were most comfortable with. While the Boilermakers’ offense is excellent, this Houston defense is the best in the nation by any metric, and they are not one to make things easy on their opponents. Not only will this easily be Purdue’s stiffest test yet, but the Boilermakers will be in trouble on the other side of the ball as well. This Purdue defense is possibly the worst unit remaining in the tournament, particularly when it comes to defending the rim (341st in two-point defense per BartTorvik). That doesn’t bode well against a Houston team just got a terrific effort from J’wan Roberts in the paint against a better Gonzaga defense. Ultimately, Houston should establish itself as the better team over the first 20 minutes and go on to win this one comfortably in the second half.

Purdue vs Houston prediction: Houston -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.

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