College Basketball Picks

The Baylor Bears will host the Houston Cougars in Waco, Texas on the final day of the Big 12’s regular season. The first matchup between these teams saw the Cougars win a slow paced and defensive style game by a score of 76-65. Despite the early money being placed on the home Baylor Bears, making a case for the Cougars to cover the short 4.5 point spread is my angle of choice.

The point spread in this game opened at 7.5 early Friday afternoon, and bettors quickly pushed this number down to its current number of 4.5. The line move makes sense at first glance, as the “spot” most likely favors Baylor. The Bears are still fighting for their tournament lives while the Cougars have already clinched the Big 12 regular season title outright and are essentially locked into a top 2 seed in the NCAA tournament. However, Kelvin Sampson led teams typically don’t experience any sort of letdown performances, and this is a team that lives off their intensity on both ends of the floor. Houston has also been fantastic on the road this season, sitting with a perfect 9-0 record away from home in conference play.

The matchup also appears to favor the Cougars, and it starts with their dominance on the interior. Houston is always one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, and this year has been no different (36.9% offensive rebound rate, 13th nationally). The Cougars should take advantage of a small Bears’ frontcourt that starts 6 ‘7 ” Norchad Omier at the center position, and I don’t believe the Bears’ 244th nationally ranked defensive rebound percentage will be able to hold up nearly long enough to compete for 40 minutes. Baylor is also sloppy with the ball at times (139th nationally in turnover rate), and having poor ball security is typically bad news against a Houston team that applies pressure at a high rate.

Betting against this big market move is the way I will play this game. Houston’s matchup advantages along with their ability to win road games by margin gives confidence to lay the 4.5 point spread. Let’s back the Cougars in the regular season finale.

Houston vs Baylor Prediction: Houston -4.5 at time of publishing, playable at that number

The Nevada Wolf Pack and the San Diego State Aztecs will face off on Saturday night for a Mountain West battle. It will be the last day of the regular season for the Mountain West Conference before heading to Las Vegas on Wednesday for the conference tournament. Nevada is locked in at the seven seed for the league tournament next weekend while San Diego State is still fighting for a higher seed if they can win. It should be a good matchup, but our best bet of the game is the under. We like the under because both teams play at a slow pace and San Diego State has an elite defense.

The total is set for 132.5 and the under is our play. These two teams played back in January, and they combined for 119 points. The Wolf Pack shot just 29.4 percent from the field and 19.2 percent from three in that matchup in that one. We expect a similar result as game one when they scored just 50 points due to the Aztecs great defense. According to KenPom, San Diego State’s defense is ranked #13 in adjusted efficiency, #9 in effective field goal percentage, and #7 in two-point percentage. Their elite defense combined with the slow pace both teams play at should keep the total under. Nevada is ranked #345 in adjusted tempo while San Diego State is ranked #249, so we do not see the total going over.

*Under 132.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at 131*

The Kentucky Wildcats will travel to Columbia on Saturday to play a SEC game against the Missouri Tigers. Kentucky has had an up and down season in year one of the Mark Pope era, but they have some of the best wins in all of college basketball. Missouri has bounced back in a great way this season after winning zero conference games last season. They have lost three out of their last four games but will be headed to the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers and the Wildcats have struggled as of late due to their poor defense, so we expect a high scoring game in this one. The total is set for 169 points, and we expect it to end up over.

Over 169 points is our best bet of the game because both teams have high-powered offenses and bad defenses. Missouri has given up over 90 points in four out of their last five games and are ranked #182 nationally in opposing points per game. Similar, Kentucky is ranked #293 nationally in opposing points per game and have struggled to stop teams from scoring. Both teams are ranked in the top 10 in points per game on the offensive end, so there should be no shortage of points in this game. We expect a very high paced game with a great showcase of offense.

Kentucky vs Missouri prediction: Over 169 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 170.

You can bet on our Kentucky vs Missouri pick at DraftKings Sportsbook, which has thousands of betting options available and a great new customer offer where you can get $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you make a first bet of just $5! Click here 👈🏼 to sign up for a DraftKings account now.

It’s going to be a Big East showdown as No. 6 St. John’s makes their way out west to take on No. 20 Marquette in the final game of the season. St. John’s achieved their highest national ranking (No. 6) for the first time since the 1990-1991 season, and they’re looking to end this season on a high note.  The last time these two teams played, St. John’s won by a final score of 70-64, and I expect a tight battle between the two top teams in the Big East.  St. John’s has already secured the top seed, but don’t think for a minute that Rick Pitino is going to take it easy against their conference foes.  I expect St. John’s to give it their all in the final game of the season and here’s why.   

Marquette is going to be out for revenge and there’s nothing more satisfying than beating a Big East rival before the start of their conference tournament.  The Golden Eagles are coming off a disappointing loss against UConn where they lost 72-66, a team they were hoping to beat. Marquette struggled from beyond the arc going 3-22, and all three of those came from David Joplin who scored 23 points in that matchup.  The Red Storm had a week off after they took down Seton Hall 71-61, and as some people think they may come slow out of the gate, I think they’ll be ready to go.  The Red Storm are going to be energized heading into this matchup, and the last time they faced, the Red Storm out rebounded Marquette by 22 and they’ll do it again in this matchup.  The Red Storm are 7-2 on the road this season, so they aren’t afraid to hit the road, and I think St. John’s will have no issue taking down the Golden Eagles in this matchup, making them my best bet of the day as the celebrate an amazing season. 

St. John’s vs Marquette prediction: St. John’s +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Now you can bet any of our St. John’s vs Marquette predictions at FanDuel Sportsbook, which has a great new-customer offer to take advantage of. If you sign up for FanDuel right now, you earn a welcome bonus worth up to $150 if your first $5 bet wins! Use this link 🔗 to join FanDuel right now and learn more.

We have a Saturday afternoon battle in the heart of Big 12 country as the Iowa State Cyclones face the Kansas State Wildcats. These teams met a month ago in Ames, where K-St took an 80-61 win. That was in the midst of the Wildcats’ hot streak, but more importantly, it was while the Cyclones were missing a couple of key players with injuries. Throw out that result as you think about how to play the season finale. The Cyclones are favored by 6.5 points, and they are a team that could be a real factor in the Big Dance, if they can get everyone healthy and back in good form in time. Still, a trip to the Little Apple to end the season is no picnic, and I like the Wildcats to keep this game close. My Iowa State vs Kansas State pick is Kansas State +6.5.

I think Iowa State has a Final Four quality team, but they are not playing that way right now. After absorbing some critical injuries midseason, they have not yet found a rhythm together since getting healthy. They have dropped 3 of their last 4 games. At Houston is expected, but losing to Oklahoma State and then losing at home to BYU were surprises. The Wildcats, for their part, have been ridiculously streaky. They lost 6 in a row, then won 6 straight, then lost 4 straight, and now have won 2. This team is a bit under-talented, but theirs is an effective system, especially on the defensive end. Iowa State is also an elite defense, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this game gets grinded out in the low 60s. I expect a close one here, no matter who wins it, so I am happy to take the points with the home team, something that usually pays off in the major conferences.

Iowa State vs Kansas State prediction: Kansas State +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Iowa State vs Kansas State predictions.

We’ve got another excellent slate of hoops in the SEC on Saturday, including a titanic Iron Bowl matchup on the hardwood between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Auburn Tigers. This is a showdown between two of the best teams in the nation in a rematch of a 94-85 Auburn win last month. From a situational perspective, Alabama would be expected to be the more motivated side following back-to-back brutal losses to Tennessee and Florida in the last week. However, Auburn was just dispatched at Texas A&M following a game that secured the SEC regular season title for the Tigers. With that in mind, we can expect a strong effort from Bruce Pearl’s team on Saturday against their hated rival, and it all starts on the defensive end. 

It’s important to note that Auburn is unlikely to have Denver Jones in this game, and we can expect Johni Broome to be a bit hobbled as well (he appeared to be favoring his shoulder for long stretches against Texas A&M). The Tigers are not 100% at the moment, which will certainly impact their typically excellent offense. With that said, we should get a maximum effort defensively from a team that consistently makes life hell for its opponents. While the first matchup between these teams was played more at the extremely fast tempo that Alabama likes to play at, we should see the Tigers take control of the pace early on at home, where they are 124th in adjusted tempo. As long as Auburn is able to dictate the pace for extended stretches of the contest, Alabama won’t really be able to establish its groove of rebounding and running in transition for easy buckets. And while the Crimson Tide should be expected to hit more than 5 threes against Auburn this time around, the Tigers defense is still a top 10 unit in 3-point percentage (Barttorvik) allowed for a reason. On the other side, Alabama’s defense has left a lot to be desired, but we did see Nate Oats’ team compete and show some real toughness and grit just last week against a tough, physical team in Tennessee. I’m expecting a fiery, competitive effort from the Crimson Tide on the defensive end and the boards in this matchup, so I’ll hold my nose and grab the under at the current number.

Alabama vs Auburn prediction: Under 178.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Alabama vs Auburn predictions.

The Seton Hall Pirates hit the road for Storrs to battle the two-time defending national champion UConn Huskies at venerable Gampel Pavilion. This is the second meeting this season, and the first resulted in a shocking 69-68 overtime win by the Pirates in Newark as a 13.5-point underdog. The home team has won each of the past eight meetings since Jan. 8, 2022, but Seton Hall has managed a 4-1 against the spread (ATS) mark in the past five meetings since Jan. 18, 2023. Hall has managed just seven victories this season, and it has dropped the past five outings. In fact, Seton Hall is just 1-14 SU in the past 15 games. However, it is 3-1 ATS in the past four games.

For UConn, it’s been a challenge, as it aims for a three-peat in college hoops. Since that wake-up call loss at Seton Hall, the Huskies are 4-1 SU in the past five outings, while covering the past two games. The Huskies are coming off a 72-66 win over Marquette, getting a little of that championships swagger back. Still, the Huskies are 0-7 ATS in the past seven games when favored by 7.5 or more points. Look for UConn to get the job done, but Seton Hall should be able to keep it within 18 points, even on the road.

Seton Hall vs UConn prediction: Seton Hall +18 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +17.

You can bet on our Seton Hall vs UConn pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if their first wager doesn’t win!

We’ve got a Big 12 clash on our hands at Phog Allen Fieldhouse with the Kansas Jayhawks set to host the Arizona Wildcats on Saturday. At this point, the turning point of this season for Kansas is well-known; a catastrophic loss at home to Houston on January 25 — a game in which Kansas led by 6 and was at the free throw line with less than 20 seconds remaining in overtime. Bill Self’s squad hardly ever loses multiple games at Allen Fieldhouse in the same season, but he was handed a third home loss last weekend when Texas Tech shot the lights out from beyond the arc en route to a victory as road underdogs. Kansas hasn’t always responded well to adversity, but the Jayhawks acquitted themselves well against Houston on the road earlier this week, covering the number and fighting a gritty and tough Cougars team tooth-and-nail for 40 minutes. That type of effort bodes well heading into Saturday’s contest.

While Kansas doesn’t appear to be a top-20 caliber team at the moment (34th on Barttorvik in February), the Jayhawks have certainly looked the part on multiple occasions at the Phog this season, most recently in a dominant victory over Iowa State on February 3. This spot for Kansas profiles pretty similarly to what we got in that game, especially since Arizona is trending in the wrong direction over the past couple of weeks (4-4 over its last 8 games). The Wildcats are coming off a very troubling performance against their in-state rivals, allowing 100+ points to Arizona State at home earlier this week. Arizona is 76th defensively on the road this season, so I’d expect that Kansas will be able to create matchup issues by using Hunter Dickinson in the two-man game against the Wildcats’ drop coverage defense. On offense, Arizona has struggled mightily with its shooting beyond the arc, registering a mark of 28% from deep over the past month. The Wildcats generate points at the rim, but they might not see much success here against a Kansas team that is tops in the conference in 2-point defense. At the end of the day, Self is a whopping 31-5 straight up over the last 4 years at Allen Fieldhouse, with 3 of those losses coming this year, all of which were very close games where Kansas experienced poor shooting luck. I’m expecting a full engaged effort from the Jayhawks, so I’ll lay the points in this regular season finale.

Arizona vs Kansas prediction: Kansas -2.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Arizona vs Kansas predictions.

What better way to end an amazing season as we have two ACC rivals get ready to duke it out.  No.2 Duke makes their way to Chapel Hill to take on the Tar Heels in what has historically been an electrifying matchup.  UNC sits tied 4th in the ACC with SMU, and right now UNC is expected to be in the First Four out in this year’s NCAA Tournament.  Luckily for Tar Heel fans, the season isn’t over with yet, and as they make their way to the stadium, I expect this Tar Heels team to give it all they got to prove to the Tournament Committee that they deserve to be in this years tournament.  

UNC  leads this all-time series 145-117, but unfortunately, I don’t think UNC is going to walk away with a win in this matchup.  Duke has been handling business ever since they lost to Clemson back on February 8th.  This Duke team has been down right scary, and leading this team is Cooper Flagg with 19.6 ppg.  It’s likely that Flagg will enter this years NBA draft, but he’s not thinking about that right now.  Currently, Flagg is hoping to achieve what every college kid dreams of, becoming a NCAA tournament champ.  I expect there to be fireworks in the ACC tournament, but unfortunately for UNC fans, they’re going to fall short here against a red hot Duke team in the season finally.  

Duke vs UNC prediction: Duke -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

A grueling 20-game B1G schedule comes to a close this weekend, and we head to the Pauley Pavilion for a USC Trojans vs UCLA Bruins prediction. These classic rivals are now facing off on the final day of the season in a new conference, and the season may well be on the line for the Trojans. The B1G tournament only takes 15 teams, and USC is at risk of missing the field if they drop this game. The Bruins, on the other hand, are playing for tournament seeding, and they will also be looking to close the season strong on senior day. UCLA took the first meeting, 82-76, in a game that saw much hotter shooting than expected. I expect the score to come down in the rematch, but I do still expect the game to stay close, and that is why I am taking the points with the Trojans. Give me USC +9.5.

The Trojans have struggled this season, and their win over lowly Washington this week broke a 5-game skid. Still, the metrics guys have USC in the top 60, so it’s not like this is a bad team. This is a team that is much better on the offensive side than the defensive side, and they have some serious rebounding issues. Yet on the other side, the Bruins play at such a deliberate pace in their defense-first scheme that they are not likely to blow the Trojans off the floor. If the Trojans can somehow hold their own on the glass, they should be able to stay in this game. Given the obvious motivation spot for the Trojans, coupled with the deliberate style of play of the Bruins, I can see this game staying close throughout. The first meeting was a 1-possession game in the final minute, and this one could go about the same. I’ll take the points.

USC vs UCLA Prediction: USC +9.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, Playable at that number.