College Basketball Picks

The Michigan Wolverines (10-3) and the USC Trojans (9-4) will resume their Big Ten conference schedules on Saturday when the Wolverines travel out west for a true road game for the first time. The Wolverines got back into their rhythm after consecutive losses to Arkansas and Oklahoma by 3 combined points with 2 convincing non-conference wins around the holidays in which they scored more than 200 points combined. Meanwhile, USC rebounded from its own losing streak with a 4-game winning streak in which the Trojans scored at least 82 points in each contest. 

Both teams have clearly been hot offensively coming into this game, but I trust Michigan’s offense a bit more despite its turnover issues. The Wolverines love to play in transition, boasting a top 15 average possession length (KenPom) and 94th percentile transition rate (Hoop-Explorer). However, they also excel in the half court with a unique 2-big rotation that is highly efficient in pick-and-pops and high-low action – the latter of which USC really struggles to defend. When the Trojans have the ball, they prefer to play inside-out and in the mid-range, attacking and cutting to the rim when they can. I just don’t see that being effective against a Michigan defense spearheaded by 2 7-footers in Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin. Per Haslametrics, the Wolverines are top 20 in near-proximity rate allowed, and while they give up a good bit of mid-range shots, they are top 80 in opposing mid-range shooting percentage – likely due to opponents having to shoot over the freakishly-long wingspan of Michigan’s front court.

USC figures to be aggressive defensively and will surely do everything it can to capitalize on Michigan’s turnover woes. However, the Wolverines have way too much size for the Trojans, and should be able to compensate for their giveaways with points scored via offensive rebounds. Laying points on the road in Big Ten play is a scary proposition, but this Michigan team has already won on the road in conference play and has more paths to success offensively than USC in this matchup. Michigan or pass for me in this one. 

Michigan vs USC prediction: Michigan Wolverines -4.5 at the time of publishing. Playable to -5.

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Arguably the biggest game of the day on the hardwood comes in the SEC between the scorching hot Florida Gators and the Kentucky Wildcats in a top-10 clash in Lexington. Both teams have been impressive throughout the early portion of this season, and I don’t anticipate that we get a blowout in this matchup. With that said, the home side is my preferred choice on Saturday morning, and it’s all about the spot. Florida has been terrific to this point, stacking up a number of impressive wins and sporting a 10-3 record against the spread thus far. However, this is by far the toughest test the Gators have faced to this point in the season, and it’ll come in one of the toughest environments in the conference.

Kentucky is finding its footing nicely in its first season under head coach Mark Pope, as the Wildcats are one of the best offenses in the nation (12th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 41st in effective FG percentage, top-20 in pace). Outside of a win over North Carolina last month, Florida’s defense has not been tested by an offensive as good as Kentucky’s, so it’s reasonable to expect a drop-off from this Gators defense (16th in adjusted defensive efficiency) against one of the better units in the country. Kentucky’s physicality and experience in the paint from seniors Andrew Carr and Amari Williams presents a stiff test for Gators sophomore big man Alex Condon, while the Wildcats perimeter defense (7th in 3-point percentage allowed) should do enough to hold up against a Gators backcourt that will get their points, but won’t have nearly the same level of success as they’ve had against their nonconference opponents. Finally, the Wildcats have played the more difficult schedule, with Florida holding the 213th nonconference strength of schedule net rating per KenPom. All things considered, let’s take the Wildcats at home.

Florida vs Kentucky prediction: Kentucky -2.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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Conference play is officially in full swing, and we have an ACC matchup to discuss, as the North Carolina Tar Heels will visit South Bend to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. It is probably fair to say that both teams have played below expectations so far this season, so they will both be looking to right the ship on Saturday afternoon. UNC currently has a disappointing record of 8-6 on the season, and while they have played a tough schedule, their loss at Louisville on Wednesday was not an encouraging effort. As for Notre Dame, they have been reeling ever since their star point guard in Markus Burton went down with a leg injury. A double-digit loss at Georgia Tech may show us exactly where this Irish team is at right now, and that is why we will be making a case for the Tar Heels laying 4.5 points.

Notre Dame has really struggled to find a replacement for Burton, and it has shown in their recent results. Guys like Braeden Shrewsberry and Matt Alloco have been forced onto the ball way more often, and it has really hurt the perimeter offense of the Irish. Their interior defense has also taken a hit in recent games, as Georgia Tech was able to carve them up and shoot 66% inside the arc on Tuesday. Conversely, North Carolina will most likely smell blood in the water in this game, as this is a game they really need, and they have a real opportunity to take advantage of an inferior team. UNC has a major edge on the perimeter, led by RJ Davis and Eliot Cadeau. Therefore, if the Tar Heels are able to get consistent stops, this game should be played at the their preferred fast pace and can ultimately lead to a sizable road victory. Let’s bet on UNC to bounce back on the road.

North Carolina vs Notre Dame prediction: North Carolina -4.5 at time of publishing. Playable at that number

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SEC play begins on Saturday in Knoxville, TN when the Tennessee Volunteers (13-0) host the Arkansas Razorbacks (11-2). Tennessee’s unblemished record is no fluke. The Volunteers have won all but 1 of their games – a 2-point victory over an Illinois team that dropped 90 on Arkansas – by double digits, including wins over Louisville, Virginia, Baylor, Syracuse and Miami. As 11.5-point favorites, oddsmakers expect the Volunteers to continue that trend at home on Saturday. I agree with oddsmakers, largely because of how good this Tennessee defense has been. This group is extremely physical and difficult to score on, especially when it plays in front of a sold out crowd at Thompson-Boling Arena – which it is expected to be for this game. 

The Volunteers are 2nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and opposing effective field goal percentage per KenPom, while holding opponents to 24.6% from beyond the 3-point line (1st nationally). They are exceptional around the basket too, as they carry a top 5 block rate (KenPom) and are 7th nationally in opposing 2-point rim percentage (Hoop-explorer) – which measures shooting percentages on dunks, layups and anything similar around the rim. This defensive presence is only going to be amplified by the crowd, especially considering this will be the first career SEC game for most of Arkansas’ back court whether it is home or away. That includes Johnell Davis, who missed the last 2 games with a wrist injury. Without Davis at 100%, Arkansas’ offensive production could be concentrated to Boogie Fland, D.J. Wagner, Adou Thiero and Zvonimir Ivisic – all of whom will be countered by one of Tennessee’s elite defenders. In fact, Felix Okpara, Jahmai Mashack and Zakai Zeigler are 3 of the top 13 defenders in the country according to Evan Miya, while Igor Milicic grades out as a top 20 defender in the SEC.

The Volunteers should be able to control this game on the defensive end by forcing Arkansas and its inexperienced guards into bad shots and turnovers, which would provide the Vols with enough cushion to win by margin and cover the spread. For what it’s worth, the last time Arkansas played a team as good and well-rounded as Tennessee was on Thanksgiving against Illinois at a neutral site. The Razorbacks never held a lead in that game and trailed by as many as 17 points while allowing 1.25 points per possession. Lay it with Tennessee. 

Arkansas vs Tennessee prediction: Tennessee Volunteers -11.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -13

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We have an early clash in the Big 12 on Saturday afternoon between two of the best teams in the conference, as the Baylor Bears face the Iowa State Cyclones. Both teams are 1-0 to open conference play, as Baylor beat Utah at home and Iowa State won on the road at Colorado. The Cyclones currently check in as the #3 team in the nation, and they are doing it on both ends of the court. Baylor had some struggles for a couple of weeks, partly because of the level of competition (Tennessee, at UConn), and partly due to some injuries to key starters, but this team seems to be fully healthy and starting to put things together. I think the Cyclones are likely to score the dreaded win-no-cover on Saturday, and my Baylor vs Iowa State prediction is Baylor +8.5.

Every game in the Big 12 is difficult, and home court matters tremendously. The Hilton Coliseum is one of the toughest venues in the country, and the Cyclones are really hard to beat in that building. Yet I think this spread ought to be more like 6 points, because the Baylor offense is capable of keeping pace. I like this Iowa State team, and I think they have a lot of talent, but it is also true that they haven’t exactly blown out most of their opponents. Baylor has a couple of players with Final Four experience, along with one of the best freshmen guards in the country, so they should be able to handle the pressure of the tough venue. I think Iowa State wins this game, but don’t be surprised if the Bears keep this within a couple of possessions. I’ll take the points here.

Baylor vs Iowa State Prediction: Baylor +8.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The B1G gives us a huge clash on Saturday afternoon between a pair of 11-2 teams, and we have your UCLA Bruins vs Nebraska Cornhuskers prediction. The Bruins are a top-20 squad, and they are coming into this game after a narrow win over Gonzaga last weekend. The Bruins play close and win close. The Cornhuskers are 1-1 in conference play with a loss to Michigan State, but they have also beaten Indiana and Creighton, and the Huskers are perfect at home this season. Home court matters a ton, especially in the B1G, and thus the books have installed Nebraska as 1-point home favorites. Still, I am going to go with what should be the better team and take UCLA to win the game.

Defense travels, and I am counting on that with the Bruins on Saturday. UCLA has a top-5 defense, and they give up less than 60 points per contest. This Nebraska team is different from last year’s tournament team. Last season, the Huskers could play bombs away with anyone, and their shooting kept them in every game. This year, the Huskers are doing things differently. I am not convinced they have enough shooting to score enough against a stifling Bruin squad. This game will almost certainly be close, but I am going with UCLA, a veteran team with a killer defense. I think they can win, even in a tough road spot.

UCLA vs Nebraska Prediction: UCLA ML (-105) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Mountain West got the weekend of basketball off to a terrific start with a thriller at the Pit on Friday night, as New Mexico won at the buzzer over Nevada. The headliner in this conference on Saturday’s slate comes in Boise, where the Broncos will host San Diego State in what promises to be another compelling matchup between these programs. Metrically, San Diego State profiles as the top team in the Mountain West, but I just can’t get there with the Aztecs at this point in the season. After all, other than a really nice win over Houston earlier in the campaign, they haven’t done much to impress me. The Aztecs are struggling mightily on offense (89th in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom) and that doesn’t bode well against a Boise State team that is allowing just 60 points per game over its last 5 contests, all of which were wins. On the other side of the ball, the Broncos are led by a pair of seniors in Tyson Degenhart and Alvaro Cardenas, who are both coming off excellent games in a win over Wyoming. The Broncos have gotten consistent scoring up and down their lineup as well, making them a hard team to fade in what is easily their biggest home game of the season to date.

Not only have the Broncos won 5 straight games, they’re also undefeated at home this season, which could matter a bit more in this game against an Aztecs team that is only playing its second true road game of the campaign. San Diego State’s defense, coaching and pedigree have to be respected, but the market is already leaning toward Boise State in this game, and I’m inclined to agree. Lay the points with the home team.

San Diego State vs Boise State prediction: Boise State -3.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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The SEC schedule will begin with a bang for the Oklahoma Sooners and Crimson Tide, who are squaring off on Saturday evening in Tuscaloosa. Both of these teams wield a ton of firepower, which is why they are ranked #12 (Oklahoma) and #5 (Alabama) in the nation. This promises to be a fun one between 2 very good teams that like to run up and down the court, which is why I’m going with the over in this Oklahoma vs Alabama prediction.

Alabama is once again led by guard Mark Sears and forward Grant Nelson. Sears is the leading scorer (18.0 ppg) in addition to 4.0 apg and 3.1 rpg. Nelson is contributing 13.2 ppg and 8.6 rpg. Three other players are also scoring in double-figures for head coach Nate Oats’ team (Lebaron Philon, Latrell Wrightsell Jr. and Aden Holloway). Unsurprisingly, the Crimson Tide lead the entire nation in scoring at 89.9 ppg. They are attempting the third-most 3-pointers (32.8 per game) and making just 31.6 percent of those shots, so just think what will they put on the scoreboards when they actually start making 3s! Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s Jeremiah Fears is averaging 19.1 ppg and was named the SEC Freshman of the Week on Dec. 23. The Sooners are scoring 83.1 ppg while shooting 48.6 percent from the floor and 36.7 percent from 3-point land. Their defense has been stout against weak competition, but they gave up 86 points to Michigan and 77 to Arizona.

All things considered, it’s the over for me.

Oklahoma vs Alabama prediction: Over 167 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 168.5.

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