College Basketball Picks

The Baylor Bears are riding high after overcoming a 19-point halftime deficit against the Kansas Jayhawks last Saturday only to storm back in the second half to secure a much needed 11-point win over a ranked team. Baylor is now 6-4 in the Big 12 and on Tuesday night they’ll travel to Lubbock to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who are 8-2 in conference play after rattling off 6 consecutive wins, including an overtime win at Houston, snapping a 33-game home win streak for the Cougars. While I thought the Red Raiders were disrespected as 9.5-point underdogs against Houston, I believe they are being overvalued in this spot against Baylor and can’t get myself to lay 8 points.

Granted the Bears haven’t been great when playing on the road this season, compiling a 4-6 record at neutral or away locations, but they’ve been playing some of their best basketball since getting blown out on the road against Iowa State on January 4. Since that game, Baylor has gone 5-3 with close losses to both TCU and BYU, which could have easily gone their way. I also don’t see enough evidence in the advanced metrics to suggest that Baylor should be getting nearly 8 points in this spot. Both of these teams rank in the top 13 in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency while playing at slow tempos. I don’t see either one of these teams necessarily pulling away in this game and expect a close contest. I’ll take the points with Baylor as they should have some much-needed confidence coming off a huge win over Kansas over the weekend.

Baylor vs Texas Tech Predictions: Baylor +8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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One of the showcase games on Tuesday’s slate comes in the Big 12, where we’ll see the red-hot Arizona Wildcats take on the BYU Cougars in Provo. The Wildcats are on a roll over the past 6 weeks, winners of 11 of their last 12 games, including 4 straight victories in conference play over quality competition. Tommy Lloyd’s team struggled with close game variance earlier in the season, but Arizona has seemingly flipped the script in that regard as well, culminating in close wins over Iowa State (in overtime) and Arizona State last week. Even though the backcourt duo of Jaden Bradley and Caleb Love have been inconsistent, they’ve still produced in big spots when it matters most. Additionally, Anthony Dell’Orso and KJ Lewis have been excellent in recent games for the Wildcats. As for the hosts, BYU is also in the midst of a winning streak, having won 4 straight and jumping into the top 30 in both KenPom and Barttorvik. This is also a good spot for the Cougars situationally given that Arizona is fresh off a pair of emotional victories in games where the outcome could’ve easily went the other way. With that in mind, I’ll be targeting BYU to keep things rolling in front of what should be a raucous crowd at home.

From a matchup perspective, the Cougars are well-equipped to attack the Arizona defense, as they shoot plenty of threes and the Wildcats don’t do a good job defending the arc (300th in 3-point defense, 114th in 3-point rate allowed). BYU is generally an elite offense in any venue, but especially at home, as the Cougars are holding a 52% shooting percentage in the friendly confines of the Marriott Center this season. BYU takes a lot of high-percentage shots (7th in effective field goal percentage) and the Cougars should be able to make Arizona’s backcourt pay with their fluid motion offense on the perimeter. If the Wildcats find themselves trailing early, the collective fatigue and effort expended over the last few games could catch up to them and the winning streak will be in serious jeopardy. This could also be a potential look-ahead spot for the Wildcats, as Arizona is set to host Texas Tech on Saturday in a massive revenge game following a close, hard-fought loss to the Red Raiders in Lubbock last month. All things considered, I’ll back the Cougars to stay hot at home.

Arizona vs BYU prediction: BYU -2.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Big East is set for a massive week ahead and one of the marquee matchups of the midweek slate takes place in New York City, where the St John’s Red Storm are set to host the Marquette Golden Eagles in a battle for supremacy at the top of the league standings. While St. John’s has undeniably been extremely impressive this season, the Red Storm haven’t exactly faced a murderers’ row of teams in the Big East conference portion of their schedule. Despite the fact that Rick Pitino’s team has won 8 straight games, only 1 of those wins came against a team that is projected to even contend for an at-large NCAA Tournament berth (Xavier), and that spot is far from guaranteed if recent bracketology projections are to be trusted. While the advanced metrics love St. John’s — and for good reason — the Red Storm are only projected to be a #6 seed at the moment due to their strength of schedule. We’re going to get a good look at how the Johnnies handle a massive step up in class on Tuesday.

The biggest difference between these teams is the quality of their offenses. Marquette ranks 3rd in the Big East in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom, while St. John’s is only ranked 8th in that same metric. It’s certainly concerning that the Red Storm have struggled to score efficiently in Big East play, as Pitino’s group is over-reliant on dominating the offensive glass and winning the shot volume battle in order to succeed. In fact, St. John’s is just 10th in Big East effective field goal percentage, which doesn’t bode well if the Red Storm will have to keep up with a Marquette offense that has a veteran presence in the backcourt behind Kam Jones, and the Golden Eagles should be able to handle the pressure that they’ll see from an elite St. John’s defense (3rd in adjusted efficiency). Marquette is coming off a loss at the hands of UConn in which the Huskies shot the lights out from beyond the 3-point arc (63.2% from deep). It’s fair to suggest that we won’t see a similar effort from St. John’s in this matchup, especially since the Johnnies are outside the top 300 in both 3-point rate and 3-point percentage on offense this season. All things considered, I’ll trust the better offense and the more battle-tested team in this Big East showdown.

Marquette vs St. John’s prediction: Marquette +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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On Tuesday evening, The Drake Bulldogs travel to face the Murray State Racers in a revenge spot for the conference-leading Bulldogs. These teams met in early January, with the Racers taking the win, 66-59. Since then, Drake has not lost, reeling off 8 straight conference wins. Most of those have been emphatic wins, and the Bulldogs look to be peaking down the stretch. Murray State appeared to be making a surprise run in the Missouri Valley after winning at Drake, but since then, they have crashed back to reality. The Racers have lost 5 of 8 since then, and facing a Drake team looking for revenge is bad news. Drake is a team worthy of the NCAA tournament, and they should win this game comfortably, even on the road. My Drake vs Murray State pick is Drake -5.

The thing that ought to give us pause about this game is that Drake ranks 364^th in tempo. Yes, that is dead last in the entire country. It works for them because they play tremendous defense and are dominant on the glass, and their offense is relatively efficient even if painfully patient. There are teams that might be able to exploit that, but Murray State isn’t a fast team either, thus failing to live up to their Racers moniker. Still, trusting the nation’s slowest team to cover any sort of number is a tough ticket to take. In the first matchup, the Racers won because they won on the glass, and because Murray out-shot Drake substantially (55% to 41%). I do not think either of those things is likely to happen a second time, and unless it does, Murray State will be in trouble. This time of year, my rule is to take the home team underdog in major conferences, but back the road team favorites in the smaller conferences. That’s what I am doing here. Drake is just better.

Drake vs Murray State prediction: Drake -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Kentucky Wildcats continue to be an offensive powerhouse, but their defensive struggles remain a glaring issue. Coming off a disappointing loss to Arkansas, Kentucky’s defensive woes were further exposed, allowing the Razorbacks to score at an impressive 1.22 points per possession. The absence of Lamont Butler has only amplified these problems, as his elite on-ball defense is sorely missed. Under Mark Pope, Kentucky has fully embraced a modern offensive approach, ranking third nationally in offensive efficiency per KenPom. The Wildcats thrive on perimeter shooting (37% from three) and ball security (14% turnover rate), making them one of the most dynamic scoring teams in the nation. However, they need consistent production from key players like Koby Brea and Ansley Almonor, especially with Andrew Carr coming off the bench.

On the other side, Ole Miss has hit a rough patch, losing three of its last four. However, two of those defeats were one-possession games, and the Rebels remain a formidable defensive squad, ranking 13th in efficiency. Their ability to force turnovers (22% rate) and limit three-point shooting (30%) aligns with Chris Beard’s signature defense. The key to this game will be Ole Miss’ offensive execution. The last 5 teams that Ole Miss has played the opponent’s defense ranked 100th or better. Kentucky’s defense ranks closer to 200th, presenting an opportunity for Sean Pedulla and Jaylen Murray to exploit. If the Rebels can keep up offensively, this game has serious shootout potential.

Kentucky vs Ole Miss Prediction: Over 157 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 159.5

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At first glance, an 8-point spread in a Big East battle feels like too much, especially considering how both teams have performed in conference play. While Xavier has been more consistent lately, I’m not convinced they are significantly better than Georgetown. The Hoyas (14-8) have been inconsistent in Big East play, going 2-3 in their last five games. Offense has been a struggle, scoring over 70 points just once in that span, and they suffered an ugly 66-41 loss to St. John’s. However, this matchup against Xavier could provide a solid opportunity to bounce back. Georgetown has been average against the spread (ATS) at 11-10-1 on the season, including 4-3 ATS on the road. More importantly, their defense, ranked 34th in the nation in points allowed, could be enough to neutralize Xavier’s offense. As an underdog of 6 or more points, Georgetown is 3-1 ATS this season.

Xavier (15-7) has played slightly better in recent weeks, going 3-2 in their last five. Their two losses were competitive, falling by 8 to St. John’s and 9 to Creighton. They also notched impressive wins over UConn and Marquette, proving they can compete with top-tier opponents. Statistically, however, there’s nothing that clearly separates them from Georgetown. Originally, the under is the play I was going to go with. These teams have combined to go 28-15 to the under this season, with Georgetown 7-1 to the under as an underdog and Xavier 8-3 to the under as a favorite. While the last meeting ended with just 132 total points on poor shooting, I wouldn’t be shocked if this one is slightly higher-scoring. Given this, I’m still expecting a defensive battle with the Hoyas keeping Xavier in check.

Georgetown vs Xavier Prediction: Georgetown +8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.

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