MLB Picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres will meet for the fourth time this year. So far the Padres are 3-0. On the mound it’s Mitch Keller of the Pirates and Nick Pivetta of the Padres. Keller has been great for the Pirates with 8 quality starts already. He pitched against the Padres earlier this year and gave up 4 runs on 8 hits. Hits have been the biggest problem for Keller as he has given up 66 hits in 64.0 innings. On the other side, Pivetta has only given up 39 hits through 56.1 innings. The Padres righty comes into this one giving up 2 runs in his last 12 innings pitched. He also holds a 1.44 ERA at home giving up less than 1 hit every 2 innings. These stats are part a big part of the reason that the Padres are 7-3 with Pivetta on the mound.

On the hitting side it has been different stories for these 2 teams. The Padres rank eighth in overall batting average while the Pirates rank 26th. Additionally, the Padres have scored 121 runs in 27 home games. The Pirates have scored 85 runs through 28 away games. That puts the Pirates at 3 runs per game, which makes sense why they are 8-20 away from Pittsburgh. Finally, through the first 3 games the Padres bullpen only gave up a run in 1 game. It is hard to find a path for the Pirates to win this one as they are struggling in away games and are set to face Pivetta and a great bullpen. I am afraid that the Pirates blew their chances of beating the Padres now that they are in San Diego. Give me the Padres on the run line.

Pirates vs Padres prediction: Padres -1.5 (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Washington Nationals (26-30) open a 3-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks (27-29) tonight at Chase Field. Jake Irvin takes the mound for Washington, while Merrill Kelly gets the start for Arizona. Irvin has been a standout in the Nationals’ rotation, posting a 2.45 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 4 starts in May. In his most recent outing he delivered 8.0 scoreless innings against the Giants, allowing just 3 hits and striking out 7. The Nats’ bats have been hot, as well. They unexpectedly took 2 out of 3 against Seattle, winning 9-3 and 9-0 the past 2 days. 

Kelly has been Arizona’s most consistent starter this season, with a 5-2 record, 3.52 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. He recently pitched 7.0 scoreless innings against the Rockies, striking out 11 and allowing only one hit. Offensively, Arizona owns the edge — averaging 5.5 runs per game compared to the Nationals’ 4.1. However, Washington has been competitive recently — winning 6 of the last 7 games. Given Irvin’s recent form and the Nationals’ improved play, they are well-positioned to keep this game close. Taking the Nationals at +1.5 offers value, especially against a Diamondbacks team with pitching concerns.

Nationals vs Diamondbacks prediction: Washington +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

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The Minnesota Twins head to the Pacific Northwest to face the Seattle Mariners this weekend. The Twins were off on Thursday after dropping a series against Tampa Bay. The Mariners played extra innings on Thursday, when they lost a second straight game to the Nationals — giving up 9 runs in both losses. The Twins should be rested, and they also expect to get Byron Buxton back from concussion on Friday. Buxton has been the offensive catalyst for this team for however long he can stay upright, and this feels like a great spot to chase the plus money with the underdog. I’ll take the Twins on the money line.

The Mariners definitely have the pitching advantage with Bryan Woo on the mound. Woo is one of the most efficient pitchers in baseball, and he has gone at least 6.0 innings in every start this season — usually with a pitch count well under 100. He will face Zebby Matthews, a promising young arm who has struggled to make the transition to the Big Leagues. Matthews did, however, fan 9 guys in his last outing — so the upside is clearly visible. The Twins have the better bullpen, and neither team is particularly great on offense. As such, this game is a true toss-up to me. I love a good plus money toss-up game, so give me the Twins in this spot and let’s see if they can scratch out a 3-2 type of win.

Twins vs Mariners prediction: Minnesota ML (+130) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The New York Yankees swept the ‘other’ Los Angeles team, the Angels, in Anaheim earlier this week. Now, the Pinstripers set their sights on Dodger Blue in Southern California. Lefty Max Fried gets the ball in the interleague series opener, and he’ll be opposed by righty Tony Gonsolin in what appears to be a lopsided pitching matchup. Fried is 7-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, striking out 67 across 70.0 innigs. He has been even better on the road, going 4-0 with a 0.83 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, walking just 6 while striking out 31 across 32.2 innings.

For the Dodgers, Gonsolin hasn’t been nearly as automatic — and he has a winning record because of offensive support despite a 4.68 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 25.0 innings over 5 outings. At home, Gonsolin has an unseemly 6.30 ERA in his 2 starts, and his WHIP sits at 1.50. The Yankees have won 5 in a row, and they are 10-1 in 11 starts by Fried so far this season. The only exception was a 2-1 loss in Seattle on May 13. I’m taking the Yankees and going rather aggressively at this nice price.

Yankees vs Dodgers prediction: New York ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -145.

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There is no starting pitcher listed for the Chicago Cubs at the time of writing this game preview, but we do know that Andrew Abbott is starting for the Cincinnati Reds. Abbott has enjoyed a strong start to the 2025 campaign so far but is tasked with a difficult close proximity rematch against the same Cubs lineup he faced in his last start just 6 days ago. The southpaw performed well in that appearance, allowing just 1 earned run across 5.2 innings of work — but he only earned 2 Ks compared to his 8 baserunners allowed. He did allow a home run in that outing and now has to pitch in Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out to right field. Chicago is a tough matchup for any starting pitcher, let alone for the second time within a week’s span. While Abbott is someone I generally like, I do not like this matchup for him today against the Cubs.

Despite not having a starter listed for the Cubs, I am confident the Reds will be able to scratch across a few runs and contribute to today’s posted game total. Cincinnati is not the league’s best offense by any means, but it does have talent sprinkled throughout the lineup — including one of the premier young talents in the sport with Elly De La Cruz. The 23-year-old shortstop has a hit in 6 straight games, with multiple hits in 3 of his last 5 — including 3 home runs during that span. The Cubs could patch together a bullpen game for today’s matchup given they have several arms available that can contribute multiple innings, but I am not a fan of the Cubs bullpen as a whole. I lean toward the over on the game total in this matchup.

Reds vs Cubs prediction: Over 8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115.

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Last night Quinn Priester was listed as Milwaukee’s starting pitcher for today’s matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies, DL Hall is now listed as the first pitcher for the Brewers. Hall made his season debut last week with 33 pitches across 2.1 innings and 10 batters faced, so we shouldn’t expect his leash to be too long in this matchup. Whether or not we see Priester enter the game as a bulk reliever behind Hall remains to be seen, but either way there should be solid offensive production from this Phillies lineup that is more than capable against either handedness. Both pitchers struggle with command of the strike zone at times, which becomes problematic when facing a patient and powerful lineup like the Phillies. Temperatures are in the high-70s with slight wind blowing out in this game, but keep an eye on the radar for rain — it looks like that could become a factor.

Milwaukee is set up nicely offensively, as well, with a matchup against Taijuan Walker. Walker has been used both as a starter and reliever this season but has had 9 days off since his last appearance. He tossed 68 pitches to the 23 batters he faced in that outing against Colorado, and with the extended rest we could see his workload expanded today. Regardless of that, he is not someone I am looking to bet on given his lack of success in recent seasons in a starting role. Milwaukee should take advantage of this spot and contribute its fair share toward the posted game total.

Phillies vs Brewers prediction: Over 9 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The 2 worst teams in the American League are set to face off this weekend, and here is Friday’s Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles prediction. This game is being priced as if this was 2024, when the Sox were the worst team in history and the O’s were a playoff team. But this is 2025, and the Orioles only have 1 more win than the White Sox. Yep, just 1. I’m telling you, I think the Sox will win at least 1 in this series — and it is kind of fun to bet on them because the payout is nice when it happens. Today you can also get them at -110 on the +1.5 run line, so why not give yourself a couple of outs in this one?

I’m not convinced that the Sox don’t have the starting pitching advantage to begin with. Sean Burke has been a competent starter; we just don’t notice him because of who he plays for. He has given up 1 run or fewer in 4 of his last 5 starts. The O’s are throwing Zach Eflin, who has been blasted in his last 2 outings. He has given up 12 earned runs in those 2 starts, including a ridiculous 7 home runs. And while the problem with backing the White Sox is that their bullpen is a mess, they actually have a lower bullpen ERA than the Orioles. So why not have some fun tonight and take the Sox +1.5? Let’s do it.

White Sox vs Orioles prediction: Chicago +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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After getting trampled 12-0 yesterday, the Athletics are sending Jeffrey Springs (3.97 ERA, .122 WHIP) to the mound while hoping to salvage some mojo back in this series. The lefty is posting a 2.05 ERA in May after a rough 7.66 ERA through 5 starts in April, but he faces a tough matchup against a Toronto lineup that is clearly hitting well — if Thursday’s result means anything. The Blue Jays rank top-10 in BA, wOBA and wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season and should give Springs some trouble. Also don’t forget that the Athletics have one of the worst bullpens in the league, posting a combined 6.07 ERA.

Chris Bassitt (3.38 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) takes the mound for the home team coming off of his worst start of the season, surrendering 9 hits and 5 runs in 4.0 innings. The Athletics’ offense isn’t otherworldly, but it does rank slightly above league average in wRC+ and wOBA when facing right-handed pitchers. All things considered, I’m taking the over with 2 pitchers who warrant fading.

Athletics vs Blue Jays prediction: Over 8.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Rockies and Mets are set to begin a 3-game series at Citi Field on Friday night. Colorado enters this matchup with the worst record in baseball at 9-47. The Rockies have especially struggled on the road, as they are just 3-25 away from Coors Field — and they will likely have their hands full with the Mets in this matchup. New York has been sensational in its home ballpark, entering Friday night with a strong 21-7 record at Citi Field. The Mets are in the middle of a 9-game home-stand, having gone 4-2 thus far. They dropped their last contest on Wednesday against the White Sox 9-4, which means the Mets should be eager to get back into the win column.

Kyle Freeland will take the mound for Colorado, and the Rockies are just 1-10 in his 11 starts this season. The 32-year-old left-hander owns a 5.86 ERA through 55.1 innings and opponents are hitting .336 against him. New York’s offense should be able to give him some trouble. These are 2 teams going in opposite directions this season, and with the Mets playing in front of their home fans, there is no need to overthink this one. Take confidence fading the Rockies and backing the Mets on the run line.

Rockies vs Mets prediction: New York -1.5 (-155) available at time of publishing. Playable to -165.

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The Los Angeles Angels head to the shores of Lake Erie to battle the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field for the start of a 3-game series. The Halos had been red-hot, winning eight games in a row from May 16-23, but lately, somebody turned off the offense spigot. The Angels are in a nosedive again, losing five consecutive games since last Saturday, and they’ve managed to plate a total of just five runs in that span. The Under has cashed in each of those games, as the pitching staff has allowed a respectable 3.0 runs per game in the past four outings.

For the Guardians, they salvaged the finale of a three-game interleague series with the Los Angeles Dodgers, winning Thursday by a 7-4 count. They’ve won five of the past eight games, while the Over hit in all three games against Dodger Blue. The Under, though, has a 7-5 edge in the past 12 games, while going 7-1-1 in the past nine home games against teams not named the Dodgers. The Under has also cashed in four of the past six starts with RHP Luis Ortiz on the bump, while the total has stayed low in the past two starts by RHP Jose Soriano, too.

Angels vs Guardians prediction: Under 8 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

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The San Francisco Giants will look to get their offense going as they open a 3-game series against the Miami Marlins. Over the last 15 days the Giants have struggled at the plate, averaging just 2.8 runs per game; the Marlins have been much more productive, averaging 4.7 runs per game. Tonight the Giants will face Cal Quantrill, who is 3-4 with a 6.09 ERA this season. Quantrill has struggled early on in the season, but in his last 4 games he is 1-1 with a 3.06 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 17.2 innings. 

For the Giants, Kyle Harrison will make just his second start of the season. Harrison is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA on the year after allowing 2 earned runs over 4.0 innings against the Nationals. Harrison has mostly been used out of the bullpen in his career, but this is a start he’s excited about — which could provide the spark the Giants need after getting swept by the Tigers. Right now I don’t trust the way San Francisco has been on offense, and Quantrill has improved on the mound in his last few starts. At the end of the day, Miami is playing slightly better than San Francisco. I think the Marlins can do enough to keep this game close or even win outright. 

Giants vs Marlins prediction: Miami +1.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Boston Red Sox (27–31) head to Atlanta tonight to open a 3-game series against the Braves (26–29) at Truist Park. Both teams are looking to rebound from underwhelming starts to the season, and this interleague matchup offers a chance to build momentum heading into June. Lucas Giolito takes the mound for Boston, coming off his best outing of the season — a 7-inning shutout against Baltimore. Despite that performance, Giolito carries a 5.27 ERA and 1.43 WHIP into tonight’s game. Notably, he has struggled historically against the Braves — posting a 0-2 record with a 12.51 ERA in previous matchups. He faced the Atlanta lineup last week and went 4.0 innings while allowing 6 runs. The Braves are poised to do it again. 

Atlanta counters with Grant Holmes, who has been a steady presence in their rotation. Holmes holds a 3–3 record with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 58.2 innings this season. His ability to limit baserunners has been a key asset for the Braves. Offensively, the Braves have been bolstered by the return of Ronald Acuña Jr. — adding depth to a lineup that also features Matt Olson. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are dealing with injuries and lineup adjustments — including Kristian Campbell’s move to first base despite limited experience at the position. The potential for both lineups to capitalize on pitching vulnerabilities suggests that the over is a plausible outcome.

Red Sox vs Braves prediction: Over 9.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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After scoring only three runs in their series against the Blue Jays, the Texas Rangers will look to get their offense going as they welcome the St. Louis Cardinals to town. Over the last 15 days, Texas has been the worst offensive team in the majors — averaging just 2.4 runs per game. Josh Smith is batting .122 in that span and Adolis Garcia is hitting .136 — those are numbers the Rangers simply can’t afford if they hope to turn things around. Taking the mound for the Rangers will be Jack Leiter, who is 3-2 with a 4.17 ERA. Leiter pitched well in his last start, giving up 2 earned runs in 5.0 innings. 

The Cardinals enter this series winning 5 of their last 6 games, looking to keep things rolling as they send left-hander Matthew Liberatore to the mound. Liberatore is 3-3 with a 2.73 ERA on the season and has been quite sharp over his last 4 starts, going 1-0 with a 1.78 ERA and striking out 21 in 25.1 innings pitched. The Cardinals own a clear advantage on the mound, and when you look at what they’ve done over the last 15 days on offense, they are averaging 4.8 runs per game with 9 homers. This Cardinals team is talented and they have the advantage on offense and with their pitching, and for that reason I’ll be backing them to pick up the win tonight against the Rangers as my best bet of the day.

Cardinals vs Rangers prediction: St. Louis ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Detroit Tigers face off against the Kansas City Royals for the fifth time this year. Through the first 4 games the Tigers are 3-1. On the mound we have Casey Mize of the Tigers and Seth Lugo of the Royals. Mize comes in having only given up 1 earned run in 4 of his last 5 starts. The Tigers are 6-2 when Mize takes the mound. Additionally, he has gone a minimum of 5.0 innings in all of his starts this year. For the Royals, Lugo is coming off the 15-day injury list. Prior to his injury he had 3 starts this month in which he gave up an average of 6 hits and 2 runs per game. The Royals are 5-4 when Lugo pitches. Overall, we have a fantastic pitching matchup in this one.

In the previous games between these teams, the Detroit bullpen proved to be dominant. Through the first 4 meetings, the Tigers’ relievers only gave up a total of 2 earned runs. This statistic may be discouraging for the Royals, who have only scored 93 runs through 29 home games this year. On the other side, the Tigers have scored 151 runs in 28 away games. Making matters worse for the Royals, they are averaging 2.5 hits per run scored this year compared to the Tigers 1.68 hits per run scored. Finally, the Tigers are 6-1 in the game following a day off. Given the Tigers are coming in on a 4-game winning streak with good pitching across the board, I am rolling with them to steal this game in Kansas City.

Tigers vs Royals prediction: Detroit ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Houston Astros have an advantage on the mound and offensively in today’s matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays. Framber Valdez will take the mound for Houston, and he enters today in good form. The southpaw hurler has allowed just 1 earned run in 3 of his last 4 starts with just 3 allowed in the other starts this month. Houston and Tampa Bay met recently but Framber did not match up with the Rays in that series. He benefits from facing them for the first time whereas Ryan Pepiot did face Houston in that start. Pepiot allowed 6 hits and 3 earned runs in that first matchup and now has to face the Astros once again, this time in their home park where they are much better. Houston has been mashing right-handed pitching, particularly when playing at home, and with this close proximity rematch I like their chances against Pepiot who has shown signs of weakness this season.

Valdez does not have as good of batted ball metrics as he has had in recent seasons, but he is still well above league average, and he should thrive in today’s matchup with Tampa Bay. The Rays have been decent against left-handed pitching in recent weeks, but Framber should be able to generate his fair share of ground ball outs and limit this Rays lineup to minimal production.

Rays vs Astros prediction: Houston ML (-165) available at time of publishing. Playable to -170.

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