MLB Best Bets

The Detroit Tigers face off against the Kansas City Royals for the fifth time this year. Through the first 4 games the Tigers are 3-1. On the mound we have Casey Mize of the Tigers and Seth Lugo of the Royals. Mize comes in having only given up 1 earned run in 4 of his last 5 starts. The Tigers are 6-2 when Mize takes the mound. Additionally, he has gone a minimum of 5.0 innings in all of his starts this year. For the Royals, Lugo is coming off the 15-day injury list. Prior to his injury he had 3 starts this month in which he gave up an average of 6 hits and 2 runs per game. The Royals are 5-4 when Lugo pitches. Overall, we have a fantastic pitching matchup in this one.

In the previous games between these teams, the Detroit bullpen proved to be dominant. Through the first 4 meetings, the Tigers’ relievers only gave up a total of 2 earned runs. This statistic may be discouraging for the Royals, who have only scored 93 runs through 29 home games this year. On the other side, the Tigers have scored 151 runs in 28 away games. Making matters worse for the Royals, they are averaging 2.5 hits per run scored this year compared to the Tigers 1.68 hits per run scored. Finally, the Tigers are 6-1 in the game following a day off. Given the Tigers are coming in on a 4-game winning streak with good pitching across the board, I am rolling with them to steal this game in Kansas City.

Tigers vs Royals prediction: Detroit ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The New York Yankees swept the ‘other’ Los Angeles team, the Angels, in Anaheim earlier this week. Now, the Pinstripers set their sights on Dodger Blue in Southern California. Lefty Max Fried gets the ball in the interleague series opener, and he’ll be opposed by righty Tony Gonsolin in what appears to be a lopsided pitching matchup. Fried is 7-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, striking out 67 across 70.0 innigs. He has been even better on the road, going 4-0 with a 0.83 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, walking just 6 while striking out 31 across 32.2 innings.

For the Dodgers, Gonsolin hasn’t been nearly as automatic — and he has a winning record because of offensive support despite a 4.68 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 25.0 innings over 5 outings. At home, Gonsolin has an unseemly 6.30 ERA in his 2 starts, and his WHIP sits at 1.50. The Yankees have won 5 in a row, and they are 10-1 in 11 starts by Fried so far this season. The only exception was a 2-1 loss in Seattle on May 13. I’m taking the Yankees and going rather aggressively at this nice price.

Yankees vs Dodgers prediction: New York ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -145.

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The Rockies and Mets are set to begin a 3-game series at Citi Field on Friday night. Colorado enters this matchup with the worst record in baseball at 9-47. The Rockies have especially struggled on the road, as they are just 3-25 away from Coors Field — and they will likely have their hands full with the Mets in this matchup. New York has been sensational in its home ballpark, entering Friday night with a strong 21-7 record at Citi Field. The Mets are in the middle of a 9-game home-stand, having gone 4-2 thus far. They dropped their last contest on Wednesday against the White Sox 9-4, which means the Mets should be eager to get back into the win column.

Kyle Freeland will take the mound for Colorado, and the Rockies are just 1-10 in his 11 starts this season. The 32-year-old left-hander owns a 5.86 ERA through 55.1 innings and opponents are hitting .336 against him. New York’s offense should be able to give him some trouble. These are 2 teams going in opposite directions this season, and with the Mets playing in front of their home fans, there is no need to overthink this one. Take confidence fading the Rockies and backing the Mets on the run line.

Rockies vs Mets prediction: New York -1.5 (-155) available at time of publishing. Playable to -165.

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After scoring only three runs in their series against the Blue Jays, the Texas Rangers will look to get their offense going as they welcome the St. Louis Cardinals to town. Over the last 15 days, Texas has been the worst offensive team in the majors — averaging just 2.4 runs per game. Josh Smith is batting .122 in that span and Adolis Garcia is hitting .136 — those are numbers the Rangers simply can’t afford if they hope to turn things around. Taking the mound for the Rangers will be Jack Leiter, who is 3-2 with a 4.17 ERA. Leiter pitched well in his last start, giving up 2 earned runs in 5.0 innings. 

The Cardinals enter this series winning 5 of their last 6 games, looking to keep things rolling as they send left-hander Matthew Liberatore to the mound. Liberatore is 3-3 with a 2.73 ERA on the season and has been quite sharp over his last 4 starts, going 1-0 with a 1.78 ERA and striking out 21 in 25.1 innings pitched. The Cardinals own a clear advantage on the mound, and when you look at what they’ve done over the last 15 days on offense, they are averaging 4.8 runs per game with 9 homers. This Cardinals team is talented and they have the advantage on offense and with their pitching, and for that reason I’ll be backing them to pick up the win tonight against the Rangers as my best bet of the day.

Cardinals vs Rangers prediction: St. Louis ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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