NFL Picks

Super Bowl 59 will feature a rematch of the same 2 teams that clashed just 2 years ago. A 38-35 barnburner, the Kansas City Chiefs won their 3rd Vince Lombardi Trophy on that day, despite a near-perfect game from Jalen Hurts and with Philadelphia leading at halftime. Patrick Mahomes even dealt with an injured ankle leading up to the title match. As usual, none of that mattered during the game’s most trying moments, as Mahomes and his colleagues made all the plays they needed to when it mattered most. 

We predict the same thing will happen again in Super Bowl LIX.

It’s easy to see why fans and bettors think this could be Philadelphia’s year. All-world running back Saquon Barkley has reinvigorated his career since leaving the Giants for the City of Brotherly Love, nearly breaking Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record (345 carries for 2,005 yards). Against Washington in the NFC Championship, he was the difference immediately, shedding off tackles and jetting ahead of the Commanders’ defense for a touchdown on his very first play from scrimmage. Jalen Hurts is protected by one of the NFL’s most sturdy offensive lines, and his receiving talent is as good as any in the league. 

On defense, the Eagles completely flipped the script after pitiful results last season. Philadelphia’s acclaimed General Manager, Howie Roseman, brought in veteran defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, and the results are crystal clear. Aided by phenomenal efforts from defensive tackle Jalen Carter and supreme talent at all 3 levels, Philadelphia has kept 3 exceptional offenses (Packers, Rams and Commanders) to just 55 total points in 3 postseason contests. Full season, the Eagles are in 1st place in a slew of major defensive categories: opponent points per game, yards per game, yards per play and yards per pass (they’re pretty good against the run, too, permitting just 104.4 yards per game, ranked 8th). No matter how this game is analyzed, we have little doubt that the Chiefs will have their hands full.

If the Super Bowl was decided solely based on who’s done it better all season, the Eagles would have a stronger case. Kansas City just doesn’t show as well on paper, especially on offense. They’re 12th in points per game (23.2), 23rd in rush yards per game (103.9) and even their highly touted passing attack hasn’t been nearly as explosive this season; 19th in yards per pass (6.9) and 15th in passing yards per game (220.5). On defense they’re more legitimate — top-10 in opponent points per game, yards per game, points per play, yards per rush and red-zone touchdown percentage.

But like we’ve seen so many times in the past, what matters most is which quarterback can execute at the highest level when their team needs it most. Second to that is which defense will step up and make big-time plays in the clutch. In both cases, perhaps no franchise in NFL history is better equipped than Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs. Mahomes is pure magic in critical moments, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, arguably the greatest DC of all time, is supremely talented at disguising blitz packages and giving his players an edge when they need a big stop. Love them or hate them, the Kansas City Chiefs simply know how to win, and we’d be foolish to not put our money on their side once again.

Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl 59 prediction: Chiefs -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.5.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Chiefs vs Eagles predictions.

Just like our diagnosis of the spread, statistics may be misleading when betting on the total in Super Bowl 59. On paper, one might think that the defenses will take over, and for good reason. Philadelphia’s defense has been stifling for a long time now. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 4 to find a 300+ yard passer against Vic Fangio’s unit (Baker Mayfield threw for 334). On the season, they permitted just 184.9 pass yards per game, a 2nd-place rank. And even against a trio of elite passers in the playoffs, that hasn’t changed much (245.6 pass yards per game allowed). Against the run, they’re not always elite, but the Chiefs’ rushing attack hasn’t been as prolific this season, either (KC is 31st in yards per carry, just 3.9).

On the other side, the Chiefs’ defense is peaking (as usual) at the right time. Through 2 games they’ve earned 10 sacks and allowed just 414 yards through the air. Considering the quarterbacks they’ve faced, the ice-cold CJ Stroud and MVP candidate Josh Allen, it’s very impressive. The real concern for Kansas City is in their run defense. Saquon Barkley poses a threat that no defense has been able to stymie this season. Averaging a ridiculous 125 rushing yards per game, Barkley is a dynamic and explosive game changer, and one that KC, a program that’s allowed a few running attacks to succeed in big games (most notably Baltimore and Pittsburgh), should be concerned about. We’re sure DC Steve Stagnoulo will have his men ready, but Barkley and arguably the NFL’s best offensive line is impossible to stop for 4 full quarters.

Even if the Chiefs did limit Philly’s ground attack, we don’t see it limiting points. Both defenses would need to dominate consistently all game to keep each offense under 21-24 points, an unlikely proposition on either side. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have one the most explosive offenses in the league (5th in points per play), and we could see the slight underdogs taking a lead at halftime. That’s what they did 2 years ago. Then, like clockwork, we know Mahomes and the KC offense will respond. The synergy between Andy Reid and his quarterback is second to none, and the same can be said about the team’s chemistry. Laterals, creative screens, trick plays on the goalline — we’ve seen it all from Reid in these big-game situations and we expect him to follow suit. Perhaps the most telling Kansas City statistic is their success on 3rd downs, anchored by Mahomes and his ability to create on the fly. They completed 3rd downs at a 48.19% clip this season (3rd overall), and they were even better last Sunday (5 for 9). 

Eventually, this should turn into a back-and-forth affair between 2 superb quarterbacks, just like what happened in the AFC and NFC Championship games. No defense has proven that it can stop Philadelphia or Kansas City when it matters most this season. We project a 30-27 finish, which sees this game going comfortably over the total.

Chiefs vs Eagles pick: Over 49.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 50.5.

Bet like a Caesar with this awesome new customer offer from Caesars, where you can get a welcome boost worth up to $1,000 on Caesars. Become a Caesars member 👥 using the Caesars promo code PICKSWISE1000, where you can bet on our Chiefs vs Eagles picks.

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown has had a rough first season with the Chiefs. He didn’t see his first start until Week 16, where he logged 8 targets and 5 receptions for 45 yards. Brown immediately followed that up with 7 targets for 4 receptions and 46 yards. The playoffs have not been as kind to him. In the Divisional Round against Houston, he saw only 2 targets for 0 receptions, while the AFC Championship Game brought him 5 targets and 3 receptions. For the Chiefs, it’s truly a team-first approach that can see any skill position player step up to make plays, but I love Brown at this 3.5 mark.

The Vic Fangio defense is very much bend-don’t-break that has 2 high safeties and light boxes. It makes it very hard to throw over the top and limits the big, explosive plays while keeping everything in front of you.

So, why Marquise Brown? I went back and watched every target he had this season (there weren’t many due to injury) and he’s been thriving underneath with very few deep targets. His aDOT on the season was 8.1 and they used him frequently on plays out to the sidelines in quick outs. Occasionally, these quick outs are used to set up a deep play when the corner bites on his curls, drags, and out routes, but its all done on the basis of him being a short-yardage receiver. It’s why he never went over 46 yards this season, but what was promising was that he had 65%+ offensive snaps in both playoff games. I’m going with 1u on 4+ receptions and 0.5u on 5+ receptions as the best of my Chiefs player props for the Super Bowl.

This is a new market exclusive for the Super Bowl, but I like it. Essentially, we need Saquon’s first touchdown to be a rush and not a catch. If he doesn’t score at all then we lose. This is a nice way to pay less juice on Saquon’s regular anytime touchdown line of -190. Kansas City admittedly has a great run defense, but Barkley is the best of the best. Saquon will be playing in the big game on his birthday and it feels written in the stars for him to find the end zone at least once. Kansas City allowed Joe Mixon to run in for one in their first playoff game and James Cook punched in 2 in the AFC Championship game. Barkley has scored 5 rushing TDs in his last 2 games and has only posted 2 receiving touchdowns all season. Neither of those have come in his last 11 starts, so if you like Barkley to score like I do, this looks to be the market to play him on.

The Super Bowl is where you should have your most fun betting and where the quirky prop bets are god to target. Dallas Goedert is in a phenomenal spot here against Kansas City. The Chiefs allow the most receiving yards to tight ends in the entire NFL. Goedert has his normal receiving-yards prop in the 50s now and has been a popular pick, but I like zigging when everyone zags. I think this market has more value than his main prop. Goedert has averaged 11.3 receiving yards in the 1st quarter in the NFL Playoffs and is fresh off games of 10 and 20 yards to open the game. Goedert should hit this on 1 catch and I think he will be a big part of Philadelphia’s gameplan. This has ladder potential as well, but for my official play, I’m staying conservative and targeting him to post at least 5 yards in the 1st quarter.

The Bills were victims of their own demise after letting the Chiefs get Xavier Worthy thanks to a draft-day trade between the 2 teams in 2024. We all knew how that was going to turn out, and – sure enough – Worthy played a big role as Kansas City beat Buffalo again in the playoffs. The rookie out of Texas caught 6 of 7 targets (and yes, his especially amazing catch was indeed a catch) for 85 yards and 1 touchdown in the AFC Championship.

That was nothing new for Worthy, either. In the regular season, he scored 6 TDs to go along with 59 receptions on 98 targets for 638 receiving yards. The 21-year-old found the end zone in each of his last 2 regular-season contests and came close to being the first TD scorer in a Divisional Round win over the Houston Texans, but got tackled at the 1-yard line before Kareem Hunt did the rest of the work. Patrick Mahomes has a ton of confidence in Worthy right now; don’t be surprised if that duo connects for another TD in the Super Bowl.

There’s no need to overthink this one. Getting Hurts at close to even money is a steal. He scored 14 rushing touchdowns during the regular season and already has 4 through 2 playoff games – including 3 in the NFC Championship against the Washington Commanders. The tush push is pretty much unstoppable – at least whenever the Eagles are the ones who are running it (we all saw how it turned out for the Bills). And it’s not like that’s the only way Hurts can score on the ground; he is a fantastic running QB who can go all the way from anywhere on the field.

Also, you can’t forget that Hurts had 3 rushing TDs in Super Bowl 57 against Kansas City. In fact, the Alabama and Oklahoma product scored a touchdown in all 3 postseason games that season. When the lights are brightest, Hurts is happy to do much of the work himself.