NFL Picks

The weather will be good in Foxborough this weekend, and that’s obviously good news for the visiting Los Angeles Chargers (even if it will still be a bit cold by their LA standards). It’s safe to say that they have a great chance of clinching a playoff berth when they visit the lowly New England Patriots on Saturday afternoon. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s crew is 9-6 and currently occupies the second wild-card spot in the AFC. Although the Bolts got blown out by the Buccaneers in Week 15, that is clearly an aberration as opposed to the rule. Los Angeles bounced back with a 34-27 victory over Denver this past Thursday and has won 6 of its last 9 contests. Its other 2 losses during this stretch are 1-possession setbacks against Baltimore and Kansas City.

Meanwhile, New England is 3-12 and has lost 5 in a row. 8 of its last 11 setbacks have come by margins larger than Saturday’s 4-point spread. Rookie QB Drake Maye has been decent, but a once-promising defense has taken a sizable step back of late. The Patriots have allowed at least 24 points in 5 consecutive contests, including 30 or more twice during this stretch. They were without 2 starters in the secondary (Jabrill Peppers and Marcus Jones) during last week’s loss at Buffalo and that could be the case again when the Chargers come to town. Facing a woeful opponent and playing on extra rest, Los Angeles should be expected to win and cover this weekend.

Chargers vs Patriots prediction: Chargers -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

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The Chargers’ offense rebounded from a couple of lackluster performances to pin 34 points on Denver in Week 16. They averaged 6.2 yards per play, Justin Herbert completed 74.2 percent of his passes and Gus Edwards racked up 4.9 yards per carry to go along with his 2 touchdowns. Herbert’s touchdown-to-interception ratio this season is 18-to-3 and he has also rushed for a pair of TDs. No wonder Harbaugh loves him so much! Herbert and the rest of the offense should be poised for success against a potentially depleted New England defense that has imploded down the stretch.

If there is any good news for the Patriots, it’s that their offense has improved since Maye took over as QB1. The #3 overall pick threw 2 interceptions in 2 of his first 4 starts but has since gone 6 consecutive games without a multi-interception performance. New England has scored at least 15 points in 10 straight, including more than 20 on 5 occasions during this stretch. Both teams should be in good shape offensively on Saturday and the weather won’t be a hindrance. I like the Over in this spot.

Chargers vs Patriots prediction: Over 42.0 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.0.

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The Denver Broncos travel to Cincinnati this Saturday afternoon for a pivotal matchup with the Bengals. The visitors currently own the final Wild Card spot in the AFC, and a victory in Cincinnati would clinch a postseason spot for Sean Payton’s team. They had a few extra days to prepare for this game because they fell to the Chargers 34-27 on Thursday Night Football last week, and I expect rookie QB Bo Nix to have a big day. The Bengals’ defense is giving up 26.2 ppg (28th in the NFL) and 321.6 passing yards per game (26th in the NFL).

For Joe Burrow and company, it’s been an extremely disappointing season. It’s been an uphill battle from the start, as Cincy fell to the lowly New England Patriots in Week 1, and while Burrow has played at an MVP level, this Bengals defense is terrible. Cincinnati held the Browns to 6 points last week, but Dorian Thompson-Robinson was the opposing QB in that game. They haven’t been able to slow down legit offenses this season, and their wins have come against poor opposition, as their opponents’ combined record is 25-80 in their 7 victories compared to 81-43 in their 8 losses.

Denver is 6-2 ATS on the road this season, while Cincinnati is just 2-5 ATS at home this season. Even if Cincy wins this game, they’ll need to beat the Steelers next week and receive some help to get into the playoffs. This Broncos team has been one of the big surprises this NFL season, and I think they’ll keep the surprises coming as they should cover this Saturday and perhaps even upset the Bengals to end their season.

Broncos vs Bengals prediction: Denver +3.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable down to +3 (-110).

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The second half of my Broncos vs Bengals predictions is for Saturday’s game to be a high-scoring affair. As I stated in my side preview, Cincinnati’s defense has been terrible all season, and they’ve held their opponents to fewer than 20 points just 4 times this season. Those games came against the Patriots (17.3 ppg – 30th in the NFL), Giants (14.3 ppg – 32nd in the NFL) and Browns twice (16.3 ppg – 31st in the NFL), so they haven’t exactly been slowing down elite offenses. Meanwhile, Denver is putting up 24.2 ppg (10th in the NFL) and has caught fire lately, as they’ve scored 27, 31, 41, 29 and 38 points in their previous 5 contests.

Now, the Bengals’ defense has been one of the worst in the league, but the offense has been great to watch. QB Joe Burrow is leading the NFL with 4,229 passing yards and 39 TDs, and the Bengals have scored fewer than 21 points just twice this season. Additionally, they’ve been on an Over tear, as the Over has cashed in 6 of their last 8 games and in 10 of their 15 contests this season. If there’s been one consistent thing for this Bengals team this year, it’s the fact that their games feature plenty of points.

The Over is 5-2 in the 7 Bengals home games this season and 5-3 in the Broncos’ 8 road contests. Additionally, both offenses have averaged 30+ points per game in their last 5. This Broncos defense has been touted as one of the league’s best, but Jameis Winston and the Browns and Justin Herbert and the Chargers have lit them up in 2 of the last 3 weeks. I can’t see this Denver defense slowing down Burrow, but the Bengals defense should allow 24+ points against Nix and company, so I’ll back a high-scoring game in Cincinnati on Saturday afternoon.

Broncos vs Bengals prediction: Over 49 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable down to -125.

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Traditionally over the final few weeks of the NFL season, teams that are in positions where they need to win are often overpriced against teams who have “nothing” to play for. These are always situational spots where I’m going to back the underdog, and that is once again the case this week, as the Arizona Cardinals are in prime position to potentially spoil the Los Angeles’ Rams season on Saturday. Arizona was eliminated from playoff contention following a loss to the Carolina Panthers a week ago, while the Rams went into New York and somehow won and covered against the Jets, despite only registering 242 total yards and 19 points. And while Sean McVay is 30-18-1 ATS against NFC West opponents — including 12-3-1 ATS against the Cardinals — the Rams have still benefited from catching opponents in great scheduling spots and have 5 straight wins by 1 possession. That sets up nicely for Arizona to keep things close in this divisional showdown.

Much has been made of the Rams’ success on offense since the return of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to the lineup, and for good reason. After all, Los Angeles now ranks inside the top 10 in EPA per play and success rate on offense over the last 2 months. However, the Cardinals’ defense is also much improved from where it was a season ago, with Arizona sitting at 6th in EPA per pass on defense over that same time frame. Therefore, even though Matthew Stafford and company should put that defense to the test on Saturday, I expect Arizona to hold up nicely and hold this Rams offense to a reasonable point total. As for the Cardinals’ offense, Kyler Murray has regressed in recent weeks, but the Arizona passing attack should still succeed against a Rams pass defense that is 23rd in EPA per pass and 25th in passing success rate allowed. Let’s back the Cardinals to keep this NFC West clash within a touchdown.

Cardinals vs Rams prediction: Cardinals +7.0 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.5.

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Games involving the Rams have tended to skew toward the Over when Los Angeles’ struggling defense meets an offense that is capable of stretching them vertically downfield. While Arizona has plenty of issues at the moment, the Cardinals are still able to score, and that was apparent when matched up against the likes of the Panthers and Patriots defenses in recent weeks. There’s no reason to suggest that Arizona wouldn’t be able to get to at least 24 points in this contest, which sets up nicely for a game that will be played in the upper 40s and low 50s in a weather-controlled indoor environment at SoFi Stadium. Both of these defenses are inside the bottom 10 in success rate allowed (SumerSports), and these offenses should be able to move the ball with sustained success on Saturday. Let’s get to the window with the Over at the current number.

Cardinals vs Rams prediction: Over 47 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is a game that looked like an extreme mismatch when these teams met in Dallas earlier this season, and for good reason. After all, the Eagles completely dominated the Cowboys 34-6 in what was one of the first games Dallas had with Cooper Rush at quarterback following the Dak Prescott injury. Since that point, the Cowboys have been playing better, especially over the last couple of weeks, with Dallas picking up victories over both the Panthers and Buccaneers as underdogs. And while Philadelphia certainly looks like one of the best teams in the NFL this season, the Eagles are expected to be without quarterback Jalen Hurts in this game due to a concussion he suffered in last week’s loss to the Commanders.

The NFC East division crown is still on the line for the Eagles, so I don’t expect a drop in effort from any of the team’s key players. With that being said, it’s hard to trust Philadelphia to win this rivalry game by multiple scores with Kenny Pickett under center. The former Steelers quarterback was largely terrible in relief for Hurts a week ago, and his task won’t get any easier against Micah Parsons and a Cowboys defense that has shown a ton of fight and resilience in recent weeks. It’s obvious that Dallas is playing for head coach Mike McCarthy, and the Cowboys should have plenty in the tank for a matchup against a hated rival. Therefore, while the Eagles certainly have the better team from top to bottom, it’s hard to ignore that Dallas could easily turn this game into a grind-it-out affair with a limited amount of possessions. For those reasons, I’ll be backing the underdog in this contest.

Cowboys vs Eagles prediction: Cowboys +7.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 7. 

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The total has dropped considerably since the Hurts news started to break, but it’s still hard to ignore what we saw the last time these teams played. Rush finished 13-for-23 through the air for 45 yards in that matchup, and while that should improve a bit on Sunday, I can’t imagine Rush plays a terrific game against this elite Philadelphia defense. The Eagles do an excellent job of limiting explosive plays, and they also rank first in defensive EPA per play and success rate over the last 10 games. On the other side, this Eagles’ offense will likely look to keep the ball on the ground and grind this one out with a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley against a Cowboys run defense that is still in the bottom 10 in rushing success rate allowed. Let’s back the Under and hope that both teams struggle once they get into scoring position.

Cowboys vs Eagles prediction: Under 39.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The New York Giants are currently slated to have the first overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. It’s exactly what New York has been hoping for since they are in desperate need of a franchise quarterback. At 2-13, possibly getting the first pick is the only positive that can be taken from this season. The Giants have gone through Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, Drew Lock and Tim Boyle at quarterback this season and nothing has worked. Last week’s blowout loss to the Falcons marked their 10th defeat in a row. Lock was under center and he completed just 22 of his 39 passes for 210 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. Even with young playmakers like Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson and Tyrone Tracy, the Giants’ offense has been a massive disappointment. Plus, the New York defense allowed rookie Michael Penix Jr. (who was making his first career start) and the Falcons offense to score 34 points against them last week.

The Colts won their Week 16 matchup in a very unusual way. Indianapolis scored 38 points against the Titans which would lead you to think “wow, Anthony Richardson finally kicked it into gear!”. But no, Richardson completed just 7 passes in the entire game. The offense ran through Jonathan Taylor, who totaled 218 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns on 29 carries. Taylor’s historic performance kept Indy’s playoff hopes alive as they are currently on the bubble with a 14% chance of making it past the regular season. If the Colts want to keep playing past Week 18, they need to win both of their remaining games and for a few other teams to slip up. That gives the Colts motivation to win while the Giants have plenty of motivation to lose since they want to hold onto the #1 pick. I’m taking the Colts to cover this spread against a sinking Giants team.

Colts vs Giants prediction: Colts -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -8.

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Taking the Over even with the state of the Giants offense right now? I know, but hear me out. The Colts’ defense has been one of the worst in the league this season and they have allowed the 10th-most opponent points per game. Last week, they allowed 30 points to Mason Rudolph and the Titans. Before that: 31 to Bo Nix and the Broncos, 24 to Drake Maye and the Pats, 24 to Jared Goff and the Lions, 27 to Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, and 30 to Josh Allen and the Bills. See the trend? Indy allows a lot of points and that gives me a little bit of confidence that the Giants can put up a respectable amount of points. 5 of Indy’s last 6 games have gone Over this total.

It’s been a brutal few weeks for the Giants’ defense. Last week, they allowed 34 points to Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons as Bijan Robinson had a fantastic game on the ground. He ran for 94 yards with 2 touchdowns on 22 carries. Before that, New York allowed 35 points to the Ravens as Lamar Jackson totaled 5 touchdowns. The Giants can’t seem to stop the elite runners right now and that’s not good since Taylor is next up on Sunday. I think there’s a solid chance that both teams can score 20 or more points because of the weak defenses, so take a shot on the Over in New York.

Colts vs Giants prediction: Over 40.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It’s the Raiders (3-12) visiting the Saints (5-10) in Week 17, and this probably won’t be a matchup that many tune into. Both teams have been horrendous in the last few months, but let’s start with the Saints. New Orleans became the first team to be shut out this season as they lost 34-0 in Week 16. Spencer Rattler was back as the starting quarterback, and he completed just 15 of his 30 passes for 153 yards and an interception. It was a brutal night for Rattler, and unfortunately for him, he didn’t have Alvin Kamara in the backfield to help. That led to the Saints compiling just 63 rushing yards between Rattler, Jordan Mims, Kendre Miller, and Jamaal Williams. There were no silver linings to take from the humiliating loss. However, there could be hope for their Week 17 matchup. Derek Carr and Kamara are both pushing to play despite the team not having a chance at making the playoffs. If those two can suit up, it will completely change this game.

The tankathon bowl happened in Las Vegas last weekend between the Jaguars and Raiders. It was a pretty ugly game all around between Mac Jones and Aidan O’Connell, but the Raiders came out on top 19-14. Las Vegas didn’t have much success on the ground, which is not a surprise considering they are the worst rushing offense in the league. With that said, Brock Bowers continued his historic rookie season, hauling in 11 catches for 99 yards. Ameer Abdullah was second on the team in catches with 5. Neither one of these teams has anything to play for besides a better position in the upcoming Draft, but if the Saints can get either Carr or Kamara back, I like New Orleans’ chances.

Raiders vs Saints prediction: Saints +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It’s the lowest total of the entire Week 17 slate. Usually, a game with this low of a total indicates poor weather conditions and plenty of injuries. However, only one of those is accurate for this matchup. This game will take place indoors in New Orleans, which makes it one of the lowest totals for an indoor matchup all season. So even with perfect game conditions, oddsmakers aren’t expecting much of an offensive performance. I’m siding with the oddsmakers on that belief because both of these offenses have looked terrible lately. New Orleans has finished with 14 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games, and Las Vegas hasn’t scored 20 points in a game since November 3.

I do expect this total to move if Carr or Kamara can suit up. Those two are the best playmakers that the Saints have on the roster right now and are a huge upgrade from the duo of Rattler and Miller. Even then, the Saints receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, making life extremely hard on Carr. I don’t see either team reaching 20 points, so I’m leaning towards the under.

Raiders vs Saints prediction: Under 38 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 37.5.

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It’s been a long and grueling season for the Bills and injuries have certainly taken their toll on the Buffalo defense in recent weeks. The Bills defense has been taking on water over the last three games, culminating in a myriad of absences to key players last week — Rasul Douglas, Matt Milano, Taylor Rapp, Damar Hamlin and DeWayne Carter. Those losses have clearly been felt in games against the Rams, Lions and Patriots, particularly when it comes to 3rd down defense and passing down success rate. The Buffalo secondary should be much healthier this week, with Milano, Rapp and Douglas expected to play against a reeling Jets team that is just trying to make it through the end of the season at this point. Buffalo still needs 1 more win to secure the second seed in the AFC for the playoffs, which has me leaning in their direction, especially following last week’s poor effort on both sides of the ball against New England.

Buffalo is still one of the best teams against the spread at home in the league, and it’ll also be motivated to grab the #2 seed considering that Josh Allen is dealing with some shoulder and elbow issues. The Bills all-world quarterback is in need of some rest to heal up prior to the playoffs, and a week off in Week 18 would do Allen, and some of Buffalo’s other starters a world of good. On the other side, Aaron Rodgers stated that he expects to play on Sunday, despite nursing a knee injury that could further hamper an offense that is already lacking explosiveness. In fact, the Jets rank in the bottom 10 in the NFL in explosive play rate and now face a Buffalo defense that is schematically designed to limit chunk plays. Let’s take Buffalo to win at home by double digits in this one.

Jets vs Bills prediction: Bills -9.5 available at time of publishing. Playable t0 10. 

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Trends aren’t generally the best source of information to consult, but any long-term data supply set that relates to certain situational spots can be a valuable part of any handicap. In this case, we have a 420-game sample where divisional matchups in outdoor games after Week 11 have gone under 59% of the time, provided that the total of 44.5 or more (BetLabs). As previously mentioned, it’s doubtful that the Bills will push Allen much to make plays with his legs or create out of structure given the injuries he’s nursing coming into this game. The same can be said of the Jets, who are facing a suddenly much healthier Bills defense on the road this week. Rainy and windy conditions are expected as well, so this has all the makings of a game that doesn’t make it out of the mid-40s.

Under 46.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.

We’ve got AFC South action on our hands here, as the Tennessee Titans make the trip to Florida to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. There’s no sugarcoating it – both of these teams have been dreadful this season. They are both 3-12 and have been blown out multiple times. However, I’m amazed to see that Tennessee is a slight underdog in this game, and like its chances of pulling the small upset. For starters, Jacksonville has lost each of its last 2 games to the Jets and Raiders – 2 equally poor franchises. They allowed both Aaron Rodgers and Aidan O’Connell to tear through them and have given up the most passing yards (4,148) and most passing yards per attempt (8.2) in the NFL. They’ve also given up the 4th-most passing touchdowns while making the 3rd-fewest interceptions. The Titans offense was unable to capitalize on that 3 weeks ago, as the Jaguars beat them 10-6 in Tennessee, but it’s worth noting that Will Levis was under center in that game. The Titans have shown vast improvement with Mason Rudolph under center.

Tennessee has put up 27 and 30 points in its last 2 games, with Rudolph posting 4 touchdown passes in that period. Calvin Ridley has seen an uptick in production, while tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo has really started to take off. The Titans’ defense continues to plague them, having allowed the 2nd-most points in the NFL, but it’s unlikely the Jags will be able to take advantage. Jacksonville managed just 10 points against them last time, and have mustered 14 points or fewer in 4 of their last 6 games. It could be a rough watch, and the Titans should prevail in this one, but it’s worth taking the extra point as insurance in case it really does come down to the wire.

Titans vs Jaguars prediction: Titans +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -1.

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Despite both teams being in incredibly rough shape, we should see some points scored in this one. As mentioned previously, the Titans have allowed the 2nd-most points in the NFL, and that has been on full display in recent weeks – giving up 42, 37 and 38 points in 3 of their last 4 games. While they did hold the Jags to 10 points last time, we should see some improvement from Jacksonville, as that game was Mac Jones’ first start and he has since settled into his spot. He led the Jags offense to putting 25 points on the Jets a couple of weeks ago, and they should see some success here.

Further, Mason Rudolph has been a clear upgrade since taking over from Will Levis, and the experienced QB should be able to penetrate a Jaguars defense that has been woeful against the pass. The Titans actually rank in the top half of the league in passing touchdowns, and with plenty of points scored in Rudolph’s last 2 starts, he should have some success in this one.

Titans vs Jaguars prediction: Over 40 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Green Bay Packers will hit the road to take on the Minnesota Vikings this Sunday, as both teams are fighting for playoff positions in the NFL. Jordan Love and the Packers are riding a 2-game winning streak and just dismantled the New Orleans Saints 34-0 on Monday Night Football. They’ve now won 5 of their last 6, with their only defeat coming on the road against the Detroit Lions 34-31. The offense is humming, as they’ve scored 30+ in 5 straight games. The Vikings are one of the biggest surprises this year, and head coach Kevin O’Connell is the favorite to win Coach of the Year. QB Sam Darnold has had a resurgence since joining Minnesota, and he spearheads an offense that averages 26.4 ppg (9th in the NFL). He’s led the Vikings to 8 straight victories, as the Vikings have averaged 30.4 ppg over their last 5 contests.

Minnesota needs this game to keep their hopes of winning the NFC North and the #1 seed in the NFC alive. However, this feels like a letdown spot for a Vikings team coming off a big comeback win against the Seahawks in Seattle. Additionally, Green Bay and Minnesota historically split their 2 meetings, as they’re both 5-5 in their last 10 head-to-head. I’ll be backing Jordan Love and the Packers in Minnesota this Sunday.

Packers vs Vikings prediction: Packers ML (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable down to -125.

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The second half of my Packers vs Vikings prediction is a bit of a contrarian play, as I’m expecting a low-scoring contest this Sunday. I already discussed how both offenses are red hot in their last 5 games AND the first meeting between these 2 teams finished with 60 points. However, there haven’t been many points between these teams historically, as they’re averaging 45.0 combined points per game in their previous 5 meetings. Additionally, both defenses are finding their groove at the right time.

The Packers enter this game after pitching a shutout against the Saints in Week 16, marking the 4th time in their last 5 games in which they’ve held their opponent to fewer than 14 points. Only the Lions have scored 20+ against this Packers team since the start of November, as Green Bay has held the Bears, 49ers, Dolphins, Seahawks and Saints to 11.8 ppg in that span. Although Minnesota torched them in their first meeting, 28 of the Vikings’ 31 points came in the 1st half, as the Packers made significant halftime changes.

Minnesota’s defense has struggled at times this season, but they’re only giving up 18.4 ppg (3rd in the NFL) and have held their opposition to 17.5 ppg in their 8 games at home. Additionally, they’ve been riding an 8-game winning streak and have given up just 17.4 ppg during that span. This Vikings team is a legitimate contender, and I’m expecting both defenses to come out flying, as this game should cruise Under.

Packers vs Vikings prediction: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable down to 48 (-110).

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This is a no-brainer to me. This is the best game on Sunday and we need exposure in this one. The stars will be shining in what feels like a major game for both teams. Aaron Jones is a great runner but is often overlooked as a pass catcher. Jones had 4 catches last time against Green Bay earlier in the season and all we need is 3 here. The Packers will be without Jaire Alexander so I’m expecting double teams on Justin Jefferson. The flats should be wide open for Jones to get dump-offs here. I really think this one has ladder potential too and I love that this is a rare non-weather game for this weekend. Let’s not overthink this one!

The Falcons and Commanders both did themselves a solid with big wins this past Sunday, increasing their chances of a postseason experience. Atlanta currently sits in 4th, the winner of the NFC South if it ended today (they own the tiebreaker over the Bucs, since they beat them twice this season), while Washington would be the final Wild Card. Despite a higher seed, the market believes that the Commanders are the most dangerous team, a valuation we tend to agree with, although Atlanta’s forecast just got brighter. Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. had a fantastic first start. Sure, he was playing the Giants, arguably the league’s worst team, but a rookie thrower’s first game behind center is no easy spot, and Penix never looked rattled. The former Washington QB threw 18/27 for 205 yards (7.5 yards per pass) on Sunday, which included 4 dropped passes by his receivers and an interception that wasn’t his fault (Kyle Pitts coughed the ball up into a defender’s arms). It was a great sign for a Falcons team that needed an emotional boost. And Penix’s arm strength was visibly different from his predecessor. The leftie was slinging rockets across the field with ease, and was unafraid to push the ball downfield. That seemed to open up Bijan Robinson and the Falcons’ rushing attack, which gained a solid 127 yards. 

That’s good news for the Falcons because Washington’s defense isn’t much better. Jayden Daniels has been amazing in his rookie season and hope has been restored in DC, but it’s rarely because of their defense. Better offenses consistently put points against Washington, just ask Tampa (37), Cincinnati (33), Baltimore (30), Pittsburgh (28) and Philadelphia (59 combined points in 2 games). We’re not sure if the Falcons are suddenly “elite” now with Penix, but they surely looked better. And when Atlanta went down 7-0 early, Penix immediately responded and led the Falcons right down the field for a quick score. The kid seems poised, prepared, and fundamentally sound– 3 qualities that few throwers exhibit in the modern era. The Atlanta defense has also played much better lately, producing 16 sacks and holding opposing offenses to just 281 rushing yards over their past 4 games. Lastly, Washington is coming off a huge, emotional victory against the Eagles, the top team in their division, while the Falcons had a proverbial practice session against the hapless Giants. This is a dangerous spot for the Commanders, and we project it to be a very close contest.

Falcons vs Commanders prediction: Falcons +4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

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Two basic elements are a part of every handicap – 1) an evaluation of each team and 2) an evaluation of the line itself. The latter typically means more. In this case, the number is telling us that Atlanta vs Washington will be a higher-scoring game. The dynamics of both programs don’t necessarily agree. On Washington’s side, the market hasn’t caught up to their proclivity to create “overs.” The Commanders are 10-5 to the over, including overs in 5 of their last 7 contests. The Falcons are the exact opposite– 10-5 to the under,  including unders in 6 of their last 7 contests. So what gives in this matchup? From an outsider’s perspective, one might consider an over. After all, Washington QB Jayden Daniels is the consensus favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and the Falcons just got an upgrade with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback; their offense generated 35 points and 329 yards in his first start. Points are on their way, right? Not so fast.

We like Penix and his potential to succeed on Sunday, but it’s worth noting that Washington is sneaky-good against the pass. They’re 4th in sack percentage, 6th in opponent completion percentage and 4th in opponent passing yards per game (185.5). In a playoff atmosphere, we think Penix will hold his own, but that doesn’t mean he’ll explode and have a massively productive game. After all, against a porous Giants’ secondary, Atlanta was mostly conservative, choosing to run on 38 of 65 plays (58%). Washington isn’t nearly as capable against the run (29th in opponent yards per rush and 30th in opponent rush yards per game), which should grant the Falcons a chance to play ball-control and keep-away from Daniels.

On the other side, Washington is a legitimate top-10 offense, a huge part of why their battles have averaged 52 points per game this season, but Atlanta’s resistance is better than you might think. The Falcons are 9th in opponent yards per rush and pass this season, 2 metrics that describe a true bend-don’t-break defense. After Daniels’ awesome performance last Sunday, slowing down the Commanders’ offense will be what’s emphasized most during Atlanta’s week of prep, especially with a thrower who’s only starting in his second NFL game. Maybe Daniels and Penix put on a show. From where we’re sitting, particularly with the nerves of the playoffs looming and the need for both programs to keep winning, this total is a tad too high.

Falcons vs Commanders prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Before the season started, NFL schedule-makers must’ve been salivating at this matchup, a rematch of the NFC Championship game right before the playoffs. Many might have predicted that this would be a battle for the #1 seed right before January, and a moment for the Lions to get their revenge. Now, the game looks and feels wildly different, although oddsmakers are still positioning themselves with caution, and with respect for the downtrodden Niners. If any one week served as a microcosm for San Francisco’s season, it was Week 16. San Francisco flew to Miami to face a struggling Dolphins squad last Sunday, an outfit that has little chance of even making the postseason. It was a tight contest throughout, but as we’ve gotten used to seeing from the Niners this season, they flailed in the second half. They also only gained 81 total yards on the ground, a consequence of a very injured backfield and offensive line. On Monday, it was announced that All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams will miss the final 2 games of the season, further adding to the slew of injuries across San Francisco’s roster. They’ve only covered the spread once in their past 7 contests, and they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs.

The Lions, meanwhile, returned to form. After a loss in Week 15 where they allowed the Bills to score 48 points, the Bears were the perfect mince-meat for the hungry Lions. It showed on Sunday. Chicago eventually punched back, but as usual it was too little, too late. Detroit gained 475 yards and had the hapless Bears chasing them for the whole contest. Another big win for the Lions and 2 games remain before they can secure the NFC’s #1 seed. The only reason why we’d consider the 49ers is that Detroit has a look-ahead matchup next Sunday that could decide the NFC North. If the Vikings end up losing on Sunday (4:25 pm ET) to the Packers, that would place Detroit a full game ahead of Minnesota, so the Lions would have a chance to clinch the #1 seed and NFC North with a win at San Francisco. Either way, a Dan Campbell led-roster will undoubtedly come to play, with vengeance on their minds. And, based on 16 weeks of evidence, we simply don’t feel that San Francisco has the manpower or juice to hold them back.

Lions vs 49ers prediction: Lions -3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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Opposing offenses are clearly starting to figure out the Lions’ defensive flaws and woes from injury, a big reason why super-high scoring has been paralleling every game with Dan Campbell’s program. Over the past 3 weeks, Lions games have averaged 69 points per game (a staggering 206 points in total), a result of above-average offenses playing catch-up, or if you’re the Bills, out-pacing the Lions’ juggernaut offense. And Detroit hasn’t slowed down one bit. They’re 1st in points per game (33), and top-5 in every major offensive category except for 4th-down conversion rate, where they’re 6th. A banged-up Niners’ defense is no match for the energy and output that Detroit can bring on a week-to-week basis, and the Lions should have extra fuel on Monday night, for reasons we mentioned in the spread writeup.

On the other side, it’s amazing to see how far the Niners have fallen, especially on defense. They still hold their own offensively, boasting a top-4 mark in yards per play and gaining 366 yards per game (8th), but their defense has devolved significantly. While they limit teams somewhat (5th in opponent yards per play, 5.1), they’re a defense that bends and breaks all the time. They rank 24th in opponent 3rd-down conversions and they’re even worse at preventing enemies from scoring touchdowns in the red zone (30th). Recently, against similarly built, elite opponents (Chiefs, Bills, Packers), they’ve permitted a disgusting 33.3 points per game. This might have been a hard-hitting, pre-playoff battle if situations were different, but we see little evidence against the reality that this contest will proceed how most of them have for both of these franchises this season.

Lions vs 49ers prediction: Over 50.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 51.5.

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