NFL Picks

This is a line that I could see being flipped by the time we get to late November, so for our 49ers vs Bills prediction, why not take a shot with one of the best home teams in football? Prior to this Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 13, the 49ers will have played a 5-game stretch consisting of the Chiefs, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Seahawks and Packers. Not only were 4 of those 5 teams in the playoffs last season, but the 49ers will have just played the Packers at Lambeau Field in a massive revenge spot for Green Bay the week prior to this contest. On the other hand, the Bills will be coming off a much-needed bye week after completing a pivotal 8-game stretch of their schedule.

There’s an argument to be made that the 49ers are overvalued in the market heading into this season, so this number could easily be Bills -2.5 by the time we hit kickoff. Yes, Buffalo can be frustrating in close games against lesser competition, but Josh Allen and company have typically risen to the occasion in these home spots (see: last season vs Miami & Dallas), so it’s hard not to back the Bills as home underdogs in this one for our 49ers vs Bills best bet.

49ers vs Bills prediction: Bills ML (+110) available at time of publishing.

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The “Harbaugh Bowl” has returned as John’s Ravens will travel across the country to take on Jim’s Chargers. Baltimore is coming off a loss that has NFL analysts shifting their opinions (again) on their potential, while the Chargers are off a huge win on Sunday night, holding off a melee by Joe Burrow and the Bengals. The market typically overreacts to these week-to-week situations, but we are encouraged to see that Baltimore is still getting the respect they deserve. We will argue they should get even more. Watching the Chargers this season proves how coaching can make a huge difference in football. Jim Harbaugh’s program is 7-3, competitive with the Chiefs in the AFC West, and they already have one of the NFL’s best defenses. Harbaugh has inherited a very talented roster on that side of the ball and he’s made the most out of it. And despite criticisms of the Bolts’ shallow wide-receiver depth chart, they’re doing plenty to win games (8th in yards/pass, 7.9). There is one area where the Chargers have consistently been a letdown all season, though – their run defense.

LA’s defense has mostly been terrific, but 11 weeks in they’re still allowing 4.7 yards per rush, a bottom-10 mark in the league (23rd). All year, good running teams have succeeded against the Chargers: Pittsburgh (114), Kansas City (110), Arizona (181) and Tennessee (157) to name a few. This is not great news with Derrick Henry and the Ravens coming to town, an offense that averages 5.8 yards/rush (1st) and 177.3 rush yards/game (2nd). On top of that, the Ravens are off a very emotional loss. Lamar Jackson is facing his share of criticism once again, with pundits and analysts claiming he cannot win “the big game” after another collapse against his rival. We’re not here to argue either way, but Sunday night does not qualify as a similar spot. The Ravens are angry, while the Chargers are probably a little too fat and sassy after surviving against Cincinnati and winning 4 straight. We like Baltimore to go off on Monday Night Football.

Ravens vs Chargers prediction: Ravens -3 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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If we think the Ravens are going to explode on Monday night, you can probably guess which way we’re thinking from this angle. The Chargers’ defense has been sensational but let’s face it – they haven’t exactly faced a who’s-who of elite offenses lately. That is, they haven’t until last week. Before Week 11, LA dominated programs like Las Vegas, Carolina, New Orleans, Cleveland and Tennessee. Then Joe Burrow showed up and dropped 27 points in Los Angeles, including 21 second-half points and a near-comeback victory. In totality, Cincinnati accumulated 452 yards. While we’re not concerned about the long-term success of Jim’s defense, it’s worth noting that this is his first year back in the NFL, with a brand new group, and it’s extremely hard to prepare for Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.

The Ravens’ defense has also been disappointing, especially against above-average QBs (7.7 yards/pass allowed, 27th). Justin Herbert is healthy and looks more confident than ever with his new coach, and we’re betting on the fact that he can keep up with the Ravens for (most of) this contest.

Ravens vs Chargers prediction: Over 51 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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According to PFF, the Ravens have a clear advantage in pass-blocking tonight against LA and when Lamar Jackson is given time he’s been surgical this season. The Chargers rank in the bottom 10 in pressure rate this season (18.7%). When looking for a comparable matchup this season, the closest we get is the Las Vegas Raiders (17.5). In that game, Jackson threw 34 times, rushing only 5 times. Jackson’s splits when under pressure compared to when he’s kept clean have large disparities. When kept clean, he’s scrambling on nearly 4% of drop backs compared to 15% when under pressure. Jackson’s median pass attempts on the season sit at 33 so we’re getting a good number and a favorable matchup for him to sit in the pocket and sling it. The Chargers rank 10th overall in opponent pass attempts per game with 33.9.

Lamar Jackson has watched his Ravens Super Bowl and MVP odds drop after losing 2 of their last 4 games, with both losses coming to division foes. But after watching the Steelers lose their game to the Browns on Thursday Night Football, the chance for the Ravens and Lamar Jackson to bounce back is now. He’s scored just 2 touchdowns this season after running in 5 last season en route to his 2nd MVP. Jackson’s rushing attempts line is set at 7.5 with vig on the over on some books — for good reason. He’s still getting plenty of designed runs, including in the red zone. Priced at +220 in a game with a total of 50.5, I’m willing to let it fly with Jackson in this highly anticipated AFC duel.

Ladd McConkey put on a show last week on Sunday Night Football against the Bengals in a big-time win. He registered a 27.3% target share, recording 123 yards on 9 targets. The concern is his health coming into Monday Night Football. After missing practice on Thursday, McConkey was limited on back-to-back days in preparation for this game. All the signs point to him being able to suit up and ultimately being effective through the air.

The Ravens’ secondary has been their main concern all year long. They’ve allowed 16 touchdowns to the wide receiver position, along with over 2,000 yards — both the most in football. So naturally, we will back the #1 pass-catching offense for the opponent. Tight end Will Dissly caught my eye at +320 to score a touchdown and is also worth a sprinkle, but McConkey is top of the list for me in terms of bets to find the end zone.