NFL Best Bets

We have a classic rivalry showdown here in the NFC East this week as the Washington Commanders get ready to host the Dallas Cowboys. A couple years ago it would have sounded crazy to say the Commanders would be one of the toasts of the league while the Cowboys would be a laughingstock, but that’s where we’re at. Dallas is in free-fall in the wake of Dak Prescott’s injury and it is coming off a blowout loss at home to the Texans.

I think there is value in buying low on the Cowboys. We are getting them at their absolute rock-bottom price in the market after the spanking on national TV at the hands of Houston that everyone saw, but it’s important not to overreact. This is a division game that’s going to be hard-fought, and getting double-digits is too good of an opportunity to pass up. I also just think Washington is a bit overrated. The Commanders are 3-3 in their last 6, and that figure gets worse when you dig into it. Their 3 wins in that span? They have come against the Giants, Panthers and Bears. New York and Carolina might be the 2 worst teams in the league and Chicago hasn’t looked much better of late. And even the Bears they only beat on a last-second, walk-off Hail Mary.

Jayden Daniels has quietly come back down to Earth following his red-hot start, and over his last 2 games he has just 1 touchdown while averaging fewer than 6 yards per attempt. Even against the G-Men, the Commanders only managed to win by 5 in a game that came down to the wire after they almost choked to Daniel Jones. As such, I don’t see any reason to feel good about laying double-digits with them on Sunday. The Cowboys have also played much better on the road this year; they are 0-5 at home but 3-2 on the road.

Cowboys vs Commanders prediction: Cowboys +10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Detroit Lions will be looking to solidify their new status as Super Bowl favorites when they visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon. That’s right; the Detroit Lions are favored to win the Super Bowl. They assumed the top spot for the first time this season — and first time in franchise history — following this past week’s 52-6 humiliation of the Jacksonville Jaguars that coincided with the Kansas City Chiefs’ first loss. And it’s hard to argue with the odds. Detroit is an absolute wagon from an offensive standpoint. Jared Goff bounced back from his interception barrage in Week 10 by torching Jacksonville for 412 yards and 4 touchdowns on 25-of-29 passing. Amon-Ra St. Brown (2), David Montgomery (2) and Jahmyr Gibbs (1) scored at least 1 touchdown in the same game for the 8th time in their careers — already a record for 3 teammates in the history of the NFL.

Indianapolis +3.5 against the New York Jets was a 3-star best bet winner for me in Week 11, but I’m prepared to fade the Colts this time. After all, facing the Lions is the most opposite extreme you can possibly get compared to facing the Jets. Indy squandered all of a 13-0 lead over the Jets before recovering late, so that really doesn’t inspire much confidence. Jonathan Taylor averaging just 2.4 yards per carry in that game also isn’t encouraging. What’s even more worrying is that the Colts rank 26th in the league against the pass and 25th in opponents’ yards per pass attempt. How do you think they are going to stop Goff, St. Brown and the rest of the gang? I would be more than happy to play this at -7.5, which you can get at plus money (+100) at time of publishing. However, at less than a touchdown (and PAT) it evokes max confidence. The Lions should continue to roll.

Lions vs Colts prediction: Lions -6.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.5 (+100).

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My main Vikings vs Bears prediction for Sunday is for this NFC North matchup to be an absolute slog. While I did like what I saw from Chicago’s newly appointed playcaller Thomas Brown last weekend against the Packers, going up against a Brian Flores-led defense will be a different animal. Minnesota is blitzing opposing QBs at a 37.7% clip (1st in the NFL) this season, and the Vikings have caused fits for young quarterbacks. Minnesota has faced Daniel Jones, Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love, Mac Jones and Will Levis this season, and only Love and the Packers had success in a 31-29 defeat. However, the other 5 QBs managed to lead their offense to an average of just 10.5 points, and even if you add in the Packers’ high-scoring game, that average only goes up to 13.1 points.

On the flip side, the Bears’ defense has been one of the lone bright spots for this Chicago team. In their 6 home games, the Bears have allowed an average of 16.7 points per contest, and no team has scored more than 20 points at Soldier Field. Additionally, Minnesota’s offense has sputtered in recent weeks after their hot start, and they’ve tallied just 21.0 points per game since their bye week. The hosts have done a great job containing opposing QBs at home this season, as only Jordan Love has thrown for more than 250 yards while facing the Bears in Chicago.

The Bears allow just 18.7 points per game (7th in the NFL), while the Vikings give up 17.0 (4th in the NFL). Chicago has seen each of their last 4 games finish Under while Minnesota’s last 3 contests finished Under as well. Additionally, the previous 5 meetings at Soldier Field between these squads finished Under the total. I expect all 3 trends to continue this Sunday and will back the Under in this NFC North rock fight. 

Vikings vs Bears prediction: Under 39.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to 38.5 (-110).

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I also like the under in what should be a low-scoring affair. There is no love lost between these teams that are super familiar with one another, and they just played a handful of weeks ago. We have got a rookie quarterback on one side and Gardner Minshew on the other, so I’m not expecting a shootout. Bo Nix has made strides from his first couple of starts, but he’s still not great when the circumstances around him aren’t perfect. Before the explosion last week against Atlanta, Denver’s offense had failed to top 14 points in back-to-back games.

The Raiders, on the other hand, have very few weapons after trading away Davante Adams — and Brock Bowers can’t do it all by himself. Las Vegas has only scored more than 20 points once in its last 7 games, so I think the Broncos will be pretty conservative on offense knowing they can likely rely on their defense. Last week Denver held Atlanta’s usually productive offense to just 6 points and they made Kirk Cousins struggle while shutting down Bijan Robinson on the ground.

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders prediction: Under 41 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.

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The “Harbaugh Bowl” has returned as John’s Ravens will travel across the country to take on Jim’s Chargers. Baltimore is coming off a loss that has NFL analysts shifting their opinions (again) on their potential, while the Chargers are off a huge win on Sunday night, holding off a melee by Joe Burrow and the Bengals. The market typically overreacts to these week-to-week situations, but we are encouraged to see that Baltimore is still getting the respect they deserve. We will argue they should get even more. Watching the Chargers this season proves how coaching can make a huge difference in football. Jim Harbaugh’s program is 7-3, competitive with the Chiefs in the AFC West, and they already have one of the NFL’s best defenses. Harbaugh has inherited a very talented roster on that side of the ball and he’s made the most out of it. And despite criticisms of the Bolts’ shallow wide-receiver depth chart, they’re doing plenty to win games (8th in yards/pass, 7.9). There is one area where the Chargers have consistently been a letdown all season, though – their run defense.

LA’s defense has mostly been terrific, but 11 weeks in they’re still allowing 4.7 yards per rush, a bottom-10 mark in the league (23rd). All year, good running teams have succeeded against the Chargers: Pittsburgh (114), Kansas City (110), Arizona (181) and Tennessee (157) to name a few. This is not great news with Derrick Henry and the Ravens coming to town, an offense that averages 5.8 yards/rush (1st) and 177.3 rush yards/game (2nd). On top of that, the Ravens are off a very emotional loss. Lamar Jackson is facing his share of criticism once again, with pundits and analysts claiming he cannot win “the big game” after another collapse against his rival. We’re not here to argue either way, but Sunday night does not qualify as a similar spot. The Ravens are angry, while the Chargers are probably a little too fat and sassy after surviving against Cincinnati and winning 4 straight. We like Baltimore to go off on Monday Night Football.

Ravens vs Chargers prediction: Ravens -3 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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