NFL Picks

The Commanders and Eagles will meet for a 3rd time this season and while the entire football world is engrossed over the enigma that is Jayden Daniels, apparently the market doesn’t agree. The Eagles have risen from -4.5 opening chalk to now as high as -6.5 favorites at many books, an understandable designation but one that will undoubtedly allure many public bettors to put some hard-earned cash on Washington’s new prodigy — and we don’t blame them!

Daniels is mystifying, showing poise and exceptional in-game decision-making as if he’s been in the NFL for a decade. He presents a very Patrick Mahomes-like demeanor, with an equally Mahomes-like ability to make plays either with his arm or legs in unconventional ways. As we’ve seen many times before, a franchise can be very flawed and still win championships when they get their coach and quarterback right, and it seems that’s what the Commanders are moving towards. Last weekend, Daniels was nearly perfect, throwing 22-31 for 299 yards, 2 touchdowns, and another 51 yards on the ground. No one would have predicted this prodigious climb in year 1 of Daniels’ career, but the Commanders are responding and playing exceptionally well across their roster.

Last week, in Detroit, the Commanders forced Jared Goff into 3 uncharacteristic interceptions. They immediately put pressure on the Lions’ esteemed thrower, sacking him twice and knocking him down another 7 times. Goff was under constant duress, and while the Lions still gained 521 yards and 31 points, we still consider it a major win for their defense. The Lions are always an offensive juggernaut at home, but most of their production was gained because they were playing from behind. Fascinatingly, after Washington went up 17-14 halfway through the 2nd quarter, Detroit never gained another lead, so Goff and a desperate offense were playing catchup for 63% of the game.

We have less to say about the Eagles because we’re not as impressed. Winning at home against a program you’ve always matched up well against is, at this point, an expectation for the Eagles, but the truth is they barely got past the Rams. Saquon Barkley (205 rushing yards) and a tenacious defense (5 sacks, forced 2 turnovers) were the 2 biggest reasons why they succeeded, factors that we’re certainly considering as this Sunday approaches. Still, for the 2nd straight week, Jalen Hurts and the pass-offense was rather anemic, accruing just 65 total passing yards. Hurts was also sacked 7 times and they just couldn’t put the game away like we’ve seen so many times in the past.

Washington coach Dan Quinn and of course rookie sensation Daniels are less experienced in these big-game situations in the NFL. We could care less. Daniels and his colleagues have shown that they can handle the pressure and that only amplifies when you consider the familiarity of a divisional opponent. Over their past 4 meetings, the Commanders are 1-3, but they’ve only lost by 3, 7 and 8-point margins, and they were all before they had Daniels in his current form. We’re going with the dog.

Commanders vs Eagles prediction: Commanders +6.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.5.

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Fortunately, it looks like Mother Nature won’t be causing any headaches this Sunday. As of Tuesday morning, Philadelphia is forecasted to be sunny and mildly cold (43 degrees), with some wind but not enough to be a hindrance to a good passing attack. Then again, only 1 program’s passing game has looked formidable in the NFC playoffs.

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offense are not finding much success through the air. Not counting sacks, which would decrease total pass yards significantly, Hurts has thrown for just 259 yards (131 against the Packers, 128 against the Rasms) in 2 playoff wins. Green Bay and LA’s defenses may have had something to do with that, but both rank as below-average units against the pass this season. Washington has been able to achieve significant pressure on opposing quarterbacks in their 2 playoff games, and their defense already limited Philadelphia’s passing attack twice in the regular season (206 in Game 1, 127 in Game 2). 

So the Commanders are going to slow this contest down and this total will go under, right? Well, we’re not confident in that take, and that’s largely because of Jayden Daniels. The rookie phenom has been sensational since the start of December. Through his last 6 starts (we won’t count Week 18, where he only played briefly), all Commanders wins, Daniels is averaging 247 passing yards, 66 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns and just 0.66 interceptions per game. He also has yet to throw a pick in the playoffs, and his completion percentage is a staggering 72% in the same span. Not surprisingly, the Washington offense has followed suit, averaging 33 points per game in their past 6 contests, too.

The Eagles’ defense has been fantastic, for the most part, but they haven’t completely slowed down their opponents. Last Sunday, Matthew Stafford and the Rams gained 402 yards on their defense, in the wind and snow and in hostile territory, and they probably would have scored more points if it wasn’t for 2 costly turnovers. Washington put up 33 points the last time they met the Eagles in Week 16, and we do not see any reality where they don’t put up at least 22-24 points in this affair. Since that’s what we project and since the market thinks Philly will win by a touchdown, we can’t look away from the Over.

Commanders vs Eagles prediction: Over 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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In what promises to be another legendary matchup, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen will meet for the 4th time in the last 5 years of the AFC playoffs. In every one of the last 3 wars, the Chiefs have come out the victor, although it’s worth noting that their last 2 wins were extremely close (one required overtime, the other decided by just a field goal). With all that in mind, it’s not a mystery why the spread sits at a humble -1.5 in favor of the home team, a designation that suggests oddsmakers think that these 2 outfits are relatively even.

Of course, it’s very hard to measure the Kansas City Chiefs and their winning ways. Short-minded prognosticators will point towards fortunate penalties and lucky bounces as the reasons why KC just keeps succeeding, but we know better. The combination of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes is second to none, a synergistic partnership that reflects the peak of championship form, especially in the game’s most pressurized moments. Yes, we know, it’s not always in the stats, but Mahomes tends to find a way when his team needs it, and so does his favorite target, Travis Kelce. Taylor Swift’s boyfriend had a mediocre season, especially compared to his previous standards, but one game into the postseason and he grabs 7 catches (on 8 targets) for 117 yards and a touchdown. If it wasn’t Kelce, it would have been someone else, and it’s not like they don’t have the talent. Isiah Pacheco, Hollywood Brown, rookie Xavier Worthy and the second-chance kid, Kareem Hunt, have all been game changers before. The KC defense was also ultra-impressive, sacking a feisty CJ Stroud 8 times and limiting Houston in the most integral moments. For example, the Texans were 1-3 in the red zone and scored just 2 points in the 4th quarter. At Arrowhead, we can’t remember the last time an offense exploded against the home team; it just doesn’t happen very often.

But if any team is ready to get by the Chiefs, it’s the Bills, and they already did it once this season. Back in Week 11, Buffalo executed a superior game plan against their rival, preventing Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense from ever launching into a big lead. Buffalo forced an interception on Kansas City’s very first drive, capitalizing on it for a quick touchdown lead, and later they forced another interception on Mahomes’ last drive, effectively ending the contest. Josh Allen was magnificent, finishing the match with 2 straight touchdown drives in the 4th quarter. Allen was responsible for 145 of those 153 combined yards, either by running or passing.

One was left wondering what would have happened if Mahomes never threw those 2 interceptions, and now he’ll have the chance to seek revenge at home. Our favorite bet on this game is teasing up Buffalo to +7.5 or +8, but Kansas City is at home and now they’re seeking “revenge,” however superficial it may be, from their loss earlier this season. They’re also seeking to be the first team in NFL history to win 3 straight Super Bowls; it doesn’t get more motivating than that. Mahomes and Reid don’t typically trip twice against the same program, and they own the better defense. As much as we’d like to see Buffalo in the big dance, we can’t bet with our hearts.

Bills vs Chiefs prediction: Chiefs -1.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.5.

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Firstly, like the NFC Championship game, as of Tuesday it doesn’t look like weather will be an issue for Bills vs Chiefs. Make sure to keep paying attention to the weather, though, since we’ve seen forecasts turn on a dime. In any case, the table is set for a big offensive showcase, one might think, since these 2 programs have exclusively produced high-scoring battles in the recent past. Last January, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs outlasted the Bills at Orchard Park in the Divisional Round in a game that produced 48 first downs, 729 total yards and 51 points. Buffalo hosted and won against Kansas City in a rematch this season in Week 11, a battle that also produced 51 points, although production was a bit humbled (43 first downs, 625 total yards). In any case, many bettors will expect fireworks in the AFC Championship bout, if for no other reason than the caliber of the 2 quarterbacks involved.

We’re not as convinced. Playoff football is different, especially for veteran programs like the Bills and Chiefs, and we like their defenses to be the difference in this contest. Last week, Kansas City recorded a staggering 8 sacks on CJ Stroud. They also held the Texans to just 1-3 in the red zone, and the Houston offense gained just 18 first downs. Of course, many have lamented about the Chiefs’ offense, an operation that ranks as only a slightly above-average operation this season. They gained just 212 yards on Saturday, a metric that certainly doesn’t hurt the position we’re taking on this number.

On the other side, the Bills’ defense was just as impressive. Buffalo held Derrick Henry, Baltimore’s most destructive x-factor, to just 84 yards on the ground. Baltimore ended up gaining 416 yards, but Buffalo’s defense was opportunistic, forcing 3 turnovers and limiting Lamar Jackson and his teammates to just 10 points in the first half and 6 points in the final quarter.

Two familiar rivals meet in yet another tense matchup with huge implications, and while Buffalo’s offense has been a juggernaut this year, confronting one of the NFL’s most storied playoff defenses in hostile territory is no easy feat. As much as America would love another shootout, we doubt 2 high-level defenses will let that happen.

Bills vs Chiefs prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.

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