NFL Picks

The Cardinals kept their playoff hopes alive as they beat the Patriots 30-17 last Sunday. Kyler Murray was impressive in the win as he completed 23 of his 30 passes for 224 yards but no touchdown passes. That’s because every time the Cardinals got close to the end zone, it became James Conner territory. The veteran back just signed an extension in Arizona and celebrated it by running for 110 yards on just 16 carries. On the other side of the ball, the defense held Drake Maye to just 202 yards through the air and Rhamondre Stevenson to just 69 yards on the ground. It’s been the defense that has been inconsistent at times this season which has become the main reason for Arizona’s struggles, but it was good to see the secondary step up last week. The defense gets a somewhat favorable matchup again in Week 16 against the Panthers.

Carolina was the favorite in a game for the first time since Week 15 of 2022 and it didn’t go well. The Cowboys upset the Panthers 30-14 as the secondary just couldn’t stop CeeDee Lamb through the air or Rico Dowdle on the ground. Early on in the game, it became very apparent that Cooper Rush was looking for Lamb any chance he could and that led to him having 9 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. That leads me to believe Marvin Harrison Jr. could be in for a big day against this weak Panthers secondary. Plus, Carolina has one of the worst run defenses in football. The Panthers have allowed 173 rushing yards per game which is the worst mark in the league. In fact, they allow 29.3 more rushing yards per game than the team ranked 31st. That Swiss cheese defensive line got carved up by Dowdle last week as he ran for 149 yards on 25 carries. That provides Conner with an excellent matchup on the ground. It’s a short spread so I’m willing to back the Cardinals in Carolina.

Cardinals vs Panthers prediction: Cardinals -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.

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It makes sense that the Panthers allow the most points per game in the league considering they have the worst run defense and a below-average secondary. Carolina has allowed 29.9 points per game which leads me to believe the Cardinals will finish with 24-34 points. I think the Panthers defense is going to have a hard time limiting Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride because of their size and physicality. We saw Lamb carve up the Panthers secondary last week so it could certainly happen again in Week 16 with Harrison Jr. as the main benefactor. Plus, Conner should run wild against this defense.

Only one team has a higher percentage of the Over cashing than the Panthers. 10 of Carolina’s 14 games have surpassed the set total with only the Ravens ahead of them. The combination of low totals because of their offense with a terrible defense has been the perfect recipe for a lot of points. I can see a score around 30-21 in favor of the Cardinals which leads me to take Arizona’s spread combined with the Over.

Cardinals vs Panthers prediction: Over 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.

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The Cincinnati Bengals will host the Cleveland Browns this Sunday in a crucial game for the home squad. Joe Burrow and company are holding onto hope for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC, but they’ll need to win out and receive some help to do so. They enter this game after taking down the Tennessee Titans 37-27 on the road last weekend. Although it wasn’t a great performance, it did mark the second straight week in which their defense showed some life, as they recorded 4 interceptions and recovered 2 fumbles.

The same cannot be said for the Cleveland Browns, as they benched backup QB Jameis Winston in a 21-7 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs. Winston threw 3 INTs before third-string QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson took over, who is the official starter this Sunday in Cincinnati. To make matters worse, RB Nick Chubb suffered a season-ending foot injury, so I’m not sure how much life this Browns team will show in this one. They’ve gone 1-5 ATS and 1-5 SU in their last 6 games and have lost 6 straight road contests.

These 2 teams have played close games in the past, but this one feels like it could end in a blowout for the hosts. While the Bengals are playing for their playoff lives, the Browns are likely looking toward next season already and are now turning to their 3rd option at QB. Cleveland is 1-6 on the road this season, with their lone victory coming against the 3-11 Jaguars. Their average margin of defeat has been by 12 ppg, and I expect this to continue, as the Bengals should cruise to a 9+ point victory.

Browns vs Bengals prediction: Bengals -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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While I expect the Bengals to win by a touchdown or more this Sunday, I do think we’ll see a lower-scoring affair. Specifically, I can’t imagine the Browns putting up many points with DTR under center. In his 3 career starts, Cleveland averages 9.3 ppg, and they haven’t put up more than 13 points in any of those games. Yes, they’re playing a Bengals defense that allows 27.6 ppg (31st in the NFL), but Cincinnati hasn’t played awful against young QBs this season. Rookie Jayden Daniels had success against the Bengals in a 38-33 win, but otherwise, they’ve held Daniel Jones, Gardner Minshew, Cooper Rush and a combination of Will Levis and Mason Rudolph to 19.5 ppg.

Like the Bengals, the Browns aren’t your ideal defensive team, but if they want any shot at winning this contest, they’ll need their defense to step up. Luckily for them, they’ve played Joe Burrow and the Bengals pretty tight, as Burrow has a career 88.4 passer rating against the Browns in 7 meetings, and their offense has averaged just 20.8 ppg in those games. 

The total has gone Under in 4 of the Bengals’ last 6 meetings with the Browns, and only 3 of Cleveland’s 7 road contests went Over. I can’t see DTR scoring more than 14 points in this game, so even if Cincy puts up 30 points, we should just sneak under the total, so I’ll back this meeting to finish Under the current total.

Browns vs Bengals prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable down to 47 (-110).

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This is a bet I absolutely love. Chase Brown is becoming more and more trusted by this Bengals team. Last week we saw Brown tote the rock 25 times. Luckily, all we need is 18 here because asking for 25 consistently is asking for a lot. This Browns team is a good target. You may look at Chase Brown’s last game against Cleveland and note that he only had 15 handoffs. In that game, Cincinnati was facing Deshaun Watson.

Although Watson isn’t the same guy he once was in Houston, he is still capable of moving the chains and sustaining drives. On Sunday, the Browns will be starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson. DTR is a fun quarterback with his speed but is inaccurate. He is completing just 44% of his passes this year. Cleveland incompletions would be perfect here as it would stop the clock and give Brown and the Bengals more time to work with. I think Brown could run for 18+ attempts easy if they take control of this game how I believe they should. Let’s hope that Brown can help us make some green on Sunday!

The Detroit Lions travel to Soldier Field this Sunday to take on the Chicago Bears in the second meeting between these squads. They faced off on Thanksgiving, and although the Lions jumped out to a 16-0 halftime lead, the Bears fought back and had the chance to attempt a game-tying field goal as the clock expired. However, their disgraced head coach, Matt Eberflus, completely mismanaged the clock, and the Bears fell 23-20. He’s since been dismissed, but things haven’t improved for Chicago, as they’re 0-2 since the firing and have been outscored 68-25 against the 49ers and Vikings.

Detroit enters this matchup after suffering their second defeat of the season, 48-42, at the hands of the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen further solidified himself as the MVP favorite, and Buffalo had a 35-14 3rd-quarter lead before Detroit stormed back and made it a game. Head coach Dan Campbell made a questionable call to go for an onside kick with 11 minutes left in a 10-point game, which ultimately killed the Lions’ momentum. Additionally, they lost RB David Montgomery to a knee injury, and while he’s seeking a second opinion on the injury, it looks like Detroit will likely be without him for this game and the rest of the regular season.

The Lions were 9-1 ATS before failing to cover each of their last 3 games, but they’re still 5-1 against the number on the road and have been elite under Dan Campbell after a loss. Since Week 9 of the 2022-23 season (Campbell’s second season in charge), Detroit is 8-0 following a defeat, winning by an average of 16.3 ppg. They failed to cover against the Bears in the first meeting, but I have to think Chicago has very little motivation to win this game and expect a beatdown by Detroit. 7 of the Lions’ 12 wins this year have come by a TD or more, and I expect them to get another 7+ point victory in Chicago this weekend.

Lions vs Bears prediction: Detroit -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 7 (-110).

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Although I expect the Lions to win by 7+ on Sunday, Chicago can put up enough points to make this total fly Over. There’s no denying that Detroit will do its fair share of scoring, as Chicago has allowed 34 ppg since Eberflus was fired, and the Lions are putting up 32.8 ppg this season (1st in the NFL). Additionally, Detroit recorded 405 total yards and 25 first downs in the first meeting, but they came away with just 23 points due to a Jahmyr Gibbs fumble in the red zone and a missed field goal. 

On the flip side, this Lions defense is decimated with injuries. They posted one of the best DVOAs in the NFL over the first 11 weeks of the year, but since Week 12, they rank 25th. Additionally, Chicago scored 23 points in the second half of the first meeting, so I do expect them to be able to exploit the Lions to some extent. Since that game, Detroit has given up 31 to the Packers and 48 to the Bills, and although those are much more potent offenses, the Bears have shown some life at home this season. The Bears score 22.2 ppg at Solider Field compared to 16.6 on the road.

If the Bears can put up 20+ when these teams met in Detroit the first time, it’s not out of the realm to think that they can replicate that performance, if not exceed it given all of their points came in the second half. Losing Montgomery will impact the Lions’ offense, but I still expect them to put up 28+ against a Bears defense just trying to reach the end of the season. Both teams should score 20+ in this matchup, and I expect Detroit to be closer to 30, so I’ll back the Over on Sunday in Chicago.

Lions vs Bears prediction: Over 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.5 (-110)

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It’s typical Jets that their offense finally starts performing as soon as they’ve been eliminated from playoff contention, but they should continue their progress and at least stay within a field goal of the Rams. Aaron Rodgers followed up his first game of 300+ passing yards in nearly 3 years against the Dolphins by airing it out for 289 yards and 3 touchdowns in last week’s 32-25 victory over the Jaguars. Rodgers seems to be rediscovering his famous chemistry with Davante Adams, with the receiver boasting 307 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns over the past 2 weeks. That is not good news for the Rams’ defense, which has allowed the 3rd-most passing yards per attempt in the league and the 8th-most passing touchdowns. New York’s offensive line has struggled to protect Rodgers this season, but the signal-caller was only sacked once against the Jaguars and that improvement could continue with the Rams having just 31 sacks this season, the 8th-fewest in the NFL.

The Rams might be 8-6 and fighting for a playoff spot but this is a tricky spot for them, traveling 2,800 miles to play in temperatures in the mid-20s. Despite their record, LA has a -28 point-differential and given the Jets have allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL, they could make it a frustrating day for Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense. This Jets team has a knack for blowing it in the 4th quarter, but regardless I still like them to keep things close and stay within a field goal of the Rams.

Rams vs Jets prediction: Jets +3 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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As mentioned already, the forecast for this game suggests a cold, sunny game, but we should still see plenty of points scored. Aaron Rodgers has been on fire lately with defenses struggling to contain the hot receiving duo of Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. We saw the Bills shred the Rams just a couple of weeks ago and I expect New York to have success moving the chains in this one. Despite their record, LA has allowed the 4th-most points in the NFC and has proven vulnerable both through the air and on the ground. If the Jets offensive line and give Rodgers time to throw then we should see New York build on its recent outputs of 27, 21, 26 and 32 points.

As for Los Angeles, they won an ugly game over San Francisco last week but we should see Matthew Stafford continue to get the ball to both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Stafford has 10 touchdown passes in his last 5 games while running back Kyren Williams has punched it in 12 times this season with at least 72 rushing yards in each of his last 5. He should see more success with the Jets allowing the 6th-most TDs on the ground.

Both teams’ strengths seem to lie in the offense right now, and with both quarterbacks having tremendous receiving duos at their disposal, this one could easily turn into a shootout. Expect plenty of points at MetLife on Sunday.

Rams vs Jets prediction: Over 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.5.

There’s no sugarcoating it: Kirk Cousins has been terrible. The veteran was hoping to turn it around on Monday Night Football against the Raiders, but it just extended his struggles under center. He completed just 11 of his 17 passes for 112 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. On the bright side, it broke his streak of 4 consecutive games without a touchdown pass. However, it also extended his interception streak to 5 games in a row. In the last 5 games, Cousins has thrown just 1 touchdown and 9 interceptions. He’s been the primary reason for Atlanta’s struggles lately. The only good news about his struggles is that it’s given Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier a larger workload considering the duo carried the ball 34 times in Week 15. It’s not often that a team in the NFL wins by scoring just 15 points and the Falcons can’t keep relying on their defense to make stops. Cousins needs to step up – and fast.

The Giants lost their 12th game of the season in Week 15 as they failed to cover as 17-point underdogs. Tommy DeVito started the game for the Giants but suffered a concussion and was ruled out for the second half. So after Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, and Tommy DeVito, it was now Tim Boyle’s turn. The backup completed 12 of his 24 passes for 123 yards with a touchdown and an interception. It’s possible that Boyle will start on Sunday since DeVito might not clear concussion protocol in time. If that happens, the Giants offense will get even worse than it already was. I don’t have any faith in the Giants on either side of the ball right now, so I’m backing Cousins in this get-right spot and taking the Falcons to cover the spread.

Giants vs Falcons prediction: Falcons -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 10.

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With a big spread and a low total, oddsmakers are expecting a pretty one-sided game. I think they’re spot on because I could see this game ending around 20-3. The Falcons offense has looked terrible lately and this matchup poses an opportunity for Cousins to turn it around, but I’m not expecting a 4-touchdown game with 300 passing yards. I do think he will take a step in the right direction, just not a massive step. Plus, before last game, the Giants secondary had been on a roll. It’s the strongest part of their defense and that’s why I don’t see Cousins having a highlight reel type of game.

The Giants offense is terrible regardless of if it’s DeVito or Boyle under center. New York has some weapons on offense like Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy Jr., but it’s hard to utilize those playmakers when the quarterback is the weak link. The Giants have finished with 17 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games with the only outlier being a 20-point game against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. I would be surprised if this game saw 40 points, so fade the offenses and take the under.

Giants vs Falcons prediction: Under 41.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.

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Last week, the Eagles offense finally gave the people what they wanted; a semblance of a successful passing game. Jalen Hurts linked up with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith on plenty of occasions, which led to a dominant showing from Philadelphia’s offense against the typically stout Pittsburgh Steelers defense. Hurts and company won’t face that same level of resistance this week, as the Eagles will take on the Washington Commanders, an opponent whom Philadelphia is extremely familiar with. When these teams met back in November, the final score was a lot closer than how things turned out in the box score. In fact, if the Eagles didn’t have a pair of missed field goals in the first half, they end up winning that game by double digits and shutting the door on Washington a lot earlier in that contest. Philadelphia still outgained the Commanders by nearly 200 yards while averaging nearly 6 yards per carry and rushing for well over 200 yards. It was a complete bludgeoning in the trenches, and that should continue in the rematch on Sunday.

Washington’s defense is 20th in opponent-adjusted EPA per play, 25th in rush yards allowed and 19th in rushing touchdowns allowed this season, but the more concerning part of this matchup for the Commanders is how their offense has been performing. Jayden Daniels is in the midst of an excellent rookie season and he certainly deserves praise for transforming this offense. With that said, Washington doesn’t have the physicality up front or the capability on the outside to challenge an Eagles secondary that is playing like the best defensive backfield in the league at the moment. Therefore, it’s more likely that this ends up being a game defined by ball control and long possessions, which clearly favors Philadelphia. Even on the road, I’m going with the Eagles and laying the short number.

Eagles vs Commanders prediction: Eagles -3 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.5 (-105).

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One thing that has largely gone under the radar with regards to this Commanders team is the steady decline of their offense as the season has gone on. This isn’t exactly an uncommon occurrence with a Kliff Kingsbury offense, but the drop-off has been fairly stark. In fact, Washington sits at just 13th in EPA per play since Week 8, and it doesn’t help matters that Daniels is going to be without Noah Brown and Zach Ertz on Sunday. As a result, this could end up being a brutal game for Daniels against an Eagles defense that leads the NFL in EPA per play and success rate over the last 8 weeks (SumerSports). On the other side, while Jalen Hurts has been able to minimize his turnovers by passing less frequently and taking fewer risks, the Eagles are largely relying on their offensive line and the talents of running back Saquon Barkley to convert in big spots in the red zone and win games as a result. Despite last week’s outburst through the air, I don’t expect Philadelphia to change its identity anytime soon, so let’s back the Under in this massive NFC East matchup.

Eagles vs Commanders prediction: Under 45.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.

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Two disappointing AFC South squads will meet here in Week 16 as the Indianapolis Colts host the Tennessee Titans. The Titans announced this week they were benching Will Levis, so it’ll be Mason Rudolph under center. And that’s enough for me to back the underdog here. Tennessee hasn’t actually played all that bad recently, they’ve just been undone by Levis’ turnovers. Rudolph started three games earlier this year, and while the Titans went 1-2, the two losses were road games against the Lions and Bills, arguably the league’s two best teams. The only time Rudolph got to play in a spot that wasn’t near impossible, he led the Titans to a win over New England while averaging 7.3 yards per attempt with two touchdowns.

Tennessee’ ground game has actually made major strides recently with Tony Pollard playing well, so they don’t need anything spectacular out of the quarterback position. They just can’t have Levis’ meltdowns. Pollard has rushed for at least 88 yards in 6 of his past 11 games, which is pretty impressive considering the team’s record. The Colts are in a tailspin, and just suffered one of the most embarrassing losses of the season last week in Denver. They made a series of boneheaded errors, including Jonathan Taylor dropping the ball at the goal-line, to vanquish their remaining playoff hopes.

Anthony Richardson simply isn’t accurate, and it appears that isn’t going to change. He’s coming off yet another game where he completed well less than 50 percent of his passes, and his completion percentage is now at a historically low 47.0 on the year. When these two teams played earlier this year the Titans only lost by 3, and that was despite Levis throwing for just 95 yards with an interception in that one. Getting the chance to grab more than a field goal against the Colts sounds pretty sweet right now.

Titans +3.5 available at publishing.

There is a lot of injury uncertainty around this game, which makes it a bit harder to handicap when diving into how the teams match up with each other. With that being said, it’s hard for me to ignore how poor the Seattle offense looked against Green Bay last Sunday, particularly on the offensive line. Geno Smith has been under duress all season long, and the dam finally broke in last week’s contest, as he was forced to leave the game with an injury. Smith’s status is uncertain for this game, and as of Thursday morning, the betting market is anticipating that Smith will not play this week, even though he did practice in limited capacity on Wednesday. The offensive line situation is one that could get even worse for the Seahawks, as starting center Olu Oluwatimi could end up missing this game, meaning that rookie Jalen Sundell would need to step up in his place. Whether Smith gets the start or Sam Howell ends up being needed off the bench, it could be a long day for this Seattle passing offense.

As for the Vikings, Minnesota hasn’t exactly faced a murderers’ row of opponents in recent weeks. However, Minnesota’s coaching staff is one of the best in the league for a reason, as Kevin O’Connell and company continue to get the most out of Sam Darnold and this offense. Aaron Jones is coming off back-to-back rock-solid performances, and he’ll be going up against a Seahawks run defense that struggled mightily to stop Josh Jacobs and the Packers a week ago. Justin Jefferson has 3 touchdowns over the last 2 weeks, and he’ll instantly create matchup problems for this Seattle secondary. I don’t expect a ton of points from either side in this one, but my lean would still be on the road favorites to cover the short number here.

Vikings vs Seahawks prediction: Vikings -3 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Regardless of which team covers the spread, my favorite wager in this game is on the Under. As previously mentioned, the Seattle offensive line has been a problem all season long, and the situation just got worse with the injury to its starting center. Therefore, I expect a run-heavy game script from offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb in order to take the pressure off either Smith or Howell at the quarterback position. Even factoring that in, Brian Flores’ defense should still absolutely tee off here; the Vikings are 3rd pass-rush win rate, 1st in blitz rate and 6th in pressure rate this season. On the other side, Seattle’s defense has taken massive steps forward over the last 6 weeks, sitting at 4th in opponent-adjusted EPA per play on defense (Sumer Sports). Mike Macdonald’s unit should create enough disruption to keep Minnesota in the low 20s in this game. Additionally, there is a heavy chance of rain and winds of 10+ miles per hour in the forecast, which also points me in the direction of the under in this matchup.

Vikings vs Seahawks prediction: Under 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 42.

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The Buffalo Bills will be trying to stay within striking distance of the #1 seed in the AFC when they host the AFC East rival New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon. Buffalo is coming off 1 of its 2 biggest wins of the season — a 48-42 road upset of the NFC favorite Detroit Lions (the other being a 30-21 defeat of the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11). The Chiefs are 13-1, but the Bills are not too far behind at 11-3 and — with an 8-1 record in the last 9 games — are the hottest team in the NFL. In fact, Josh Allen and company are favored to win the Super Bowl (+400). What’s more of a lock is Allen for MVP. Over the last 3 outings, the star quarterback has tossed 7 touchdown passes without getting picked off a single time while rushing for 6 additional TDs. He has scored at least once on the ground in 5 consecutive contests.

I’m generally not a fan of giving 2 touchdowns in any situation, but this is an exception to that rule. Buffalo has scored at least 30 points in 8 straight games and New England is terrible. It’s hard to see the Patriots doing enough offensively to keep this game within 14 points. They are 3-11 and just lost to a much less formidable foe in the Arizona Cardinals by 13 points last weekend. New England has lost by at least 16 points 5 times already this season — all of those to opponents much worse than Buffalo. Drake Maye may be a future bright spot, but has been intercepted at least once in 6 consecutive games and during this stretch has as many picks as TDs (7 apiece). Give me the Bills to win big.

Patriots vs Bills prediction: Bills -14 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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New England’s offense hasn’t been terrible under Maye (the Patriots have scored at least 15 points every time he has taken the field), but it also hasn’t been any kind of juggernaut. The Pats have reached the 20-point mark just 5 times this season. They haven’t had a 100-yard rusher since Week 1 and haven’t had a 100-yard receiver since Week 2. It’s also worth noting that New England is a bit banged up on the offensive line, as 2 starters are questionable. The Bills will undoubtedly score plenty of points this weekend, but a positive game script for them should lead to a lot of rushing attempts. Assuming this turns into a beatdown quickly, Buffalo can milk the clock. Moreover, it’s going to be absolutely freezing in Buffalo on Sunday. I would tread lightly on an under play whenever Allen and the Bills are involved, but it’s a slight lean toward the Under for me.

Patriots vs Bills prediction: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This one is unlikely to be pretty. With that being said, I absolutely think this is the right play. Buffalo should lay a whooping on New England on Sunday. The Pats will therefore be forced to pass plenty in this one, especially later in the game. I don’t have fear of Maye getting pulled due to a blowout because he’s such a young guy and could use as much experience as possible. Maye has 20+ completions in 6 of 8 complete games he has played in. Buffalo is a nice target here as they allow the 6th-most completions among teams in the NFL. Weather shouldn’t be a factor here and the game script should be favorable. Just keep finding the open man underneath Drake!

The San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins will be trying to stay in mathematical contention for playoff spots when they clash on Sunday afternoon in Florida. Although the season has pretty much been a disaster for both clubs, for no team is the 2024 campaign a more disappointing state of affairs than San Francisco. Among the Super Bowl favorites when it started, the injury-plagued 49ers find themselves at 6-8 and without the services of star running back Christian McCaffrey the rest of the way. The Niners figured to turn things around when McCaffrey finally returned in Week 10, but they are 2-4 since then and 1-4 in their last 5 outings. With McCaffrey injured again and the offense having scored 10 points or fewer in 3 of the last 4 contests, things look especially bleak right now for head coach Kyle Shanahan’s crew.

It’s not saying a lot, but the Dolphins are in better shape. Their oft-injured star player (QB Tua Tagovailoa) has — unlike McCaffrey — stayed healthy throughout the second half of the season. Miami is 4-2 in its last 6 games and since Week 8 has not lost to anyone other than the Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans — 3 very good teams, which San Francisco is not. In a matchup between 2 teams that are basically left for dead, the fork is stuck even farther into the 49ers. I’ll back the Dolphins to win and cover.

49ers vs Dolphins prediction: Dolphins -1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.

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Both teams have been all over the place on both sides of the ball this season, so this is a difficult call. That being said, I feel better about backing the Over. Since their Week 6 bye, the Dolphins have scored at least 27 points in all 4 of their home games — including at least 32 on 3 occasions. Tagovailoa has thrown for at least 317 yards in 3 of the past 4 contests overall and in 7 of his 10 games this year he has been without an interception. That is going to make life tough for a San Francisco defense that is not only dealing with a ton of injuries but has now suspended linebacker De’Vondre Campbell for the remainder of 2024 following his refusal to enter the game in last week’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams. On the other side of the ball, Miami’s defense is near the bottom of the NFL sacks and interceptions. It’s also worth noting that the winning team in 3 of the Niners’ last 4 games has scored at least 35 points. The winner may not get that high on Sunday, but each team should contribute a decent amount. The over looks like the way to go for this one.

49ers vs Dolphins prediction: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The market is giving the Cowboys some respect after their most recent win, a 30-14 butt-whooping over the Panthers last Sunday. Of course, Carolina was favored in that game, the spread even went up to -3 at certain points, so perhaps Dallas felt disrespected and gained extra motivation. Those are the little stimulants teams like Dallas need to be competitive at this juncture in the season since their playoff chances remain very slim. We give credit to their defense, a unit that controlled their Week 15 matchup from start to finish and capitalized on a litany of mistakes by the Panthers’ offense. The Cowboys’ offense also took advantage of one of the league’s worst defenses, stacking up 410 total yards, including a rare, successful performance on the ground (Rico Dowdle ran for 149 yards on 25 carries). Of course, there’s another factor that we must consider about the Cowboys, and that’s their poor play at home. Dallas has only won a single game all season at AT&T Stadium, a closely fought victory against arguably the NFL’s worst program, the New York Giants, on Thanksgiving. Otherwise, they’re 1-6 straight up with a staggering average point differential of -17 in front of their fans. They’ll have another difficult test at home on Sunday Night Football.

The Bucs are on a roll right now. Demolishing one of the NFL’s surprise teams last week, Tampa rolled to a 40-17 victory over the Chargers, a statement performance and their 4th straight win. They’ve outscored their last 4 opponents 124-60. To be fair, they haven’t exactly faced a who’s-who of elite competition in that span (opponents Giants, Panthers, Raiders and Chargers), but wins are wins and the Bucs control their destiny, sitting in 1st place in the NFC South with an advantageous schedule ahead (at Cowboys, vs Panthers, vs Saints).  We appreciate Dallas’ fight and vigor last week at Carolina, but the Bucs are a different beast. Baker Mayfield is in a groove, Mike Evans is playing at an elite level (as always) as their #1 wideout, Bucky Irving is explosive and productive, and their defense is playing as well as they have all season. We’ll take the team in better health, with more momentum and with plenty more motivation.

Buccaneers vs Cowboys prediction: Bucs -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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The market believes the Cowboys’ defense is legitimate lately; we’re challenging that notion. Without Dak Prescott, the pressure has surely risen on Dallas’ defense, a group that often has to compensate for lack of production from Cooper Rush and a very limited run game. In recent weeks, against some of the worst offenses in the NFL (Giants and Panthers), they’ve done well, holding both to under 250 total yards in those matchups. Against more formidable recent offenses (Eagles, Commanders, Texans and Bengals), they permitted 396 yards per game.

Tampa Bay falls into the latter category. To the surprise of many analysts, who wrote off Tampa before the season, Baker Mayfield and his colleagues are performing even better than they did last year. The Bucs are ranked in the top 6 in yards per game, points per game, 3rd-down conversion rate, 4th-down conversion rate and red-zone touchdown rate. In short, the Bucs have turned into one of the best offenses in the NFL, with a feisty leader in Mayfield who’s found a home he fits in perfectly (1,428 yards, 11 touchdowns, 5 interceptions the last 6 weeks), and anchored by veteran wide-receiver Mike Evans (749 yards, 9 touchdowns). They’ve also elevated their rushing attack with Bucky Irving, who’s averaging an exceptional 5.6 yards per carry. 

Tampa’s defense has its flaws (30th in opponent pass yards per game, 27th in opponent total yards per game), and we expect Dallas’ offense to positively regress at home after quite a few stinkers; more evidence to support a high-scoring game on Sunday night. In a dome, we see a potential shootout in the making.

Bucs vs Cowboys prediction: Over 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Less inspiring than the Thursday and Sunday night primetime games, Monday Night Football features one of the best programs in the NFC against one of the most disappointing. Despite a lost season, however, the Saints have a real chance at covering this massive line. For starters, we finally saw what Spencer Rattler could offer as New Orleans’ future quarterback. The rookie had a great showing on Sunday. Replacing fellow backup Jake Haener, Rattler started in the second half and immediately took his team down the field for a touchdown. In fact, all 4 of the Saints’ second-half drives turned into scores (2 field goals, 2 touchdowns), and their defense followed suit, limiting the Commanders to just 3 points in the final 2 quarters. In what would have ultimately destroyed many survivor contestants around the betting world, Rattler even had a chance to win the game when the Saints went for a 2-point conversion following the final play, which was a picture-perfect pass from Rattler to tight-end Foster Moreau. Rattler wasn’t perfect, by any means (10-21, 135 yards, 1 touchdown), but he avoided making mistakes and avoided Washington’s pass rush (unlike Haener, who was sacked 3 times). He also instilled hope in a downtrodden roster that looked like they didn’t want to be there in the first half. We like that heading into MNF.

But there’s also a reason why Green Bay is so heavily favored. The Packers will return to Lambeau Field after a dominant statement win over the Seattle Seahawks, who came into the matchup with a 4-game winning streak. But even in front of their fans, the Seahawks couldn’t stop Matt LaFleur’s masterful game plan. Seattle’s defense looked very formidable in the weeks prior, but instead it was Jordan Love and the Packers’ offense who looked elite, outgaining the Seahawks 21-14 in first downs and 369 to 208 in total yards. Green Bay is clicking at the right time and they’re deadly at home, a venue where they’ve only lost to the Lions and Vikings in close games this season. We considered taking the Saints, but a rookie quarterback on the road in what’s forecasted to be a cold, snowy day in Wisconsin is not a situation where many like-throwers can thrive. The market is stating a very clear position and we’re inclined to take the bait.

Saints vs Packers prediction: Packers -14 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Did we mention it’s going to be snowy and cold in Green Bay on Monday night? Just making sure. Clearly the market is aware of the conditions. The Week 16 MNF game lists one of the lowest totals of the week and we’re not convinced that it’s low enough. Windy and snowy and cold means that both passing games will likely struggle, an environmental factor that we’ve seen time and time again in past NFL games. And despite his exceptional efforts last week in a loss, Spencer Rattler hasn’t had much experience in these conditions, since he played college ball at South Carolina and Oklahoma in arguably the 2 “warmest” conferences in the country. The good news is that, like their opponent, the Saints have a pretty good rushing attack, one that averages 4.4 yards per carry (12th) and gains 124.4 yards per game (11th). Of course, the same can be said for the Packers, who average 4.7 per carry (7th) and 144.4 per game (6th).

We all know Matt LaFleur loves to deploy creative running schemes. Even in 2 contests without Jordan Love this season, LaFleur let the ground-game take over and turned it into 2 wins. Green Bay is also 2nd in the NFL in rush-play percentage (51.19%).  The Saints could be without Alvin Kamara, who suffered a groin injury, but we’re not concerned about that, either. Kendre Miller did well in his absence, carrying the ball 9 times for 46 yards in just 3 drives last Sunday.  Unless the Saints don’t show up on Monday and the Packers score at will, it will be hard for either team to reach 20 points in the conditions.

Saints vs Packers prediction: Under 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.5.

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Patrick Mahomes is unlikely to suit up for this matchup with the Texans but the Chiefs should still be able to secure the victory as a home underdog. Mahomes injured his ankle against the Browns last week which means that Carson Wentz is now likely to get the start for Kansas City. Wentz completed both of his passes for 20 yards in that Cleveland game and the former #2 overall pick is more than capable of leading the Chiefs to get the win. Despite holding a 9-5 record, the Texans have not been all that convincing recently. They are 3-3 in their last 6 games with defeats to the lowly Jets and Titans in there, and much of that is down to their offensive line struggling to protect CJ Stroud (Houston has allowed the 5th-most sacks in the league).

Despite Mahomes’ injury, what has really driven the Chiefs to being 13-1 this season has been their defense, and they should feast on Stroud. Kansas City has allowed the 7th-fewest passing yards per attempt and the 11th-fewest passing touchdowns. They have also held running backs to the 2nd-fewest yards per carry (3.9) and could have success shutting down Joe Mixon, especially after his disappointing performance last week where he had 12 carries for just 23 yards. Losing Mahomes is no doubt a big blow for KC, but Andy Reid is a terrific game manager and still has plenty of talent at his disposal. In front of a raucous Arrowhead crowd, I’m happy to take the Chiefs as a rare home underdog. It’s also worth grabbing the extra couple of points as insurance too.

Texans vs Chiefs prediction: Chiefs +2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 1.5.

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The Under also looks to be the right side to be on for our second Texans vs Chiefs pick. As mentioned already, this Chiefs defense has been tremendous all season long and is the reason behind their 13-1 record. At Arrowhead, Kansas City has held its last 3 opponents to 14, 14 and 17 points, and should be able to keep Houston in check. The Texans’ offense ranks in the bottom half of the league in passing yards per attempt rushing yards per carry, and in his last 8 games CJ Stroud has thrown just 7 touchdown passes.

The Kansas City offense has struggled all season to put points on the board, and is one of only a couple of teams that is yet to score 30 points in a game. It’s fair to expect that Carson Wentz won’t be able to end that run if Patrick Mahomes has been unable to. Plus, the Texans boast the 2nd-most interceptions (19) this season so Andy Reid could look to keep the ball in the hands of Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, which would keep the clock ticking. This number feels low but may not be low enough, giving the Under some appeal.

Texans vs Chiefs prediction: Under 40 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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One month after the Pittsburgh Steelers knocked off the Baltimore Ravens in another instance of the underdog winning outright in this storied AFC North rivalry, these teams will meet again with a division title on the line on Saturday in Baltimore. This is a series where underdogs typically shine, as the ‘dog is 19-2-3 against the spread since Mike Tomlin and Jim Harbaugh assumed the head coaching duties at each team. There will be plenty of talk regarding Lamar Jackson’s poor performance against Pittsburgh in his career, and that narrative is certainly warranted. After all, the Ravens are just 1-4 in Jackson’s starts against the Steelers, and he’s had just 5 touchdowns to 8 interceptions in those games. Against a defense that has historically given him fits (and could be getting T.J. Watt back following an injury scare a week ago), it’s hard to trust Jackson to be at his best in what is likely the most important game of the season for both teams to this point.

The Steelers’ offense isn’t a very consistent unit, but what they do well is generate explosive plays downfield in the passing game with Russell Wilson at the helm. And while George Pickens is expected to miss another week due to injury, Pittsburgh should still look to run the ball, chew up clock in order to shorten the game and look for Wilson to connect on a double of deep passing plays against a Ravens secondary that has struggled all season long with allowing explosives. While Baltimore’s defense has been playing a lot better in recent weeks, it’s not like the offenses the Ravens were facing are anything to write home about. And even in a solid overall showing against the red-hot Eagles, Baltimore couldn’t get stops in that game when it mattered most. There’s a real possibility that the Ravens win this game, but not by a full touchdown or more. Tomlin as an underdog has been historically great in this type of spot, so let’s go back to the well once more in this AFC North clash.

Steelers vs Ravens prediction: Steelers +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.

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Regardless of which team covers the number, this has all the makings of yet another low-scoring game in this rivalry. Pittsburgh averaged just 4.3 yards per play without Pickens in the lineup against the lowly Browns defense and followed that up with just 163 total yards and 4.0 yards per play against the Eagles a week ago. It’s clear that Wilson clearly missed the deep-threat capabilities of his top target in each of the last 2 games and things could look pretty suspect for Pittsburgh’s passing attack once again this week. On the other side, while Jackson has been absolutely outstanding to this point in the season, there is something to be said for his struggles against this Steelers team. In the first meeting between these sides just one month ago, Jackson was held to just 207 yards through the air and Baltimore’s offense had multiple turnovers in that game. With all of this in mind, given that Pickens’ status is trending on the negative side for this game, it’s fair to suggest we’re headed for another low-scoring matchup in this storied AFC North rivalry.

Steelers vs Ravens prediction: Under 45.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.

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