College Football Picks

The bottom half of the College Football Playoff bracket will see the 6th-seeded Penn State Nittany Lions take on the 7th-seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish for the right to compete for a National Championship in less than 2 weeks time. Both teams have been pretty impressive en route to this semifinal round and this should be a pretty evenly matched game on both sides of the ball. With that said, I’m looking to back the underdog in this meeting between 2 of the traditional power programs in the sport.

Notre Dame was a team that I was comfortable backing against Georgia in the quarterfinals, and while the Irish controlled the majority of that game in the trenches on both sides of the ball, they did have a kickoff return for a touchdown and benefited from a costly Georgia turnover inside its own 20-yard line, which led to a pivotal Notre Dame touchdown. The Irish were +2 in turnovers, minus-2 in first downs and averaged only 3.9 yards per play in that contest, which is a pretty concerning sign heading into a matchup against a top-10 defense in the nation this week. While I don’t think Notre Dame’s strong statistical profile this season was just a product of its relatively soft schedule, there is something to be said for the Irish playing their second straight game against a top 6 opponent in 7 days. Additionally, Marcus Freeman’s team is operating at a bit of a disadvantage heading into this week’s matchup, as they have 2 fewer days of rest than their opponent, which does matter more than usual after playing such a physical game against Georgia. The injury situation for Notre Dame is also a real concern, as the Irish have already played games in the playoff without pivotal lineman on both sides of the ball, and are now dealing with a banged-up Jeremiyah Love at running back, who didn’t appear to be healthy at all during last week’s game. Given that the ground game is the engine for this entire offense (1st in EPA per rush), that injury doesn’t bode well against a Penn State defense that is already 4th in EPA per rush and 7th in points per drive allowed for the season.

I initially had concerns that all-world edge rusher Abdul Carter would miss this game, but all of his social media activity indicates that he’s going to play in this game, which is obviously massive for the Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions are also excellent against the pass, ranking inside the top 15 in both success rate and opponent EPA per pass. There simply aren’t going to be many avenues for Riley Leonard to attack the Penn State defense, and the Nittany Lions are excellent at staying ahead of the chains on the other side of the ball, thanks to their elite ground game with Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen in the backfield. The Notre Dame defense is no slouch, and the Irish just put together a rock-solid effort against Georgia. However, they can be had on the ground (53rd in rushing success rate allowed) against certain run concepts, so I’d expect Andy Kotelnicki’s offense to emphasize a run-first game plan and take it to a depleted Irish front seven. This is a game that should be close throughout and could come down to the final possession. With that in mind, let’s grab the plus-money ODDS with the Nittany Lions to knock off the Irish and advance to the title game.

Notre Dame vs Penn State prediction: Penn State ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable to +105.

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Regardless of what team wins this game, the Under at the Orange Bowl is my favorite play on the board in this semifinal round. Both offenses have been fairly run-heavy in the playoffs to this point, and we should be getting a game script that features a heavy dose of handing the ball off on early downs from each team, as these coaching staffs will likely prioritize not making crucial mistakes and winning the field position battle. That style of game is an ideal script for the under because it means that both sides should chew up plenty of clock, while also not giving the opposing defense a chance to force a turnover and set up their offense with a short field.

There’s also something to be said for the fact that both offenses can be expected to start out slow in a game of this magnitude. After all, we just saw Notre Dame employ a fairly conservative game plan in the quarterfinals against Georgia, and Penn State’s offense was pretty inconsistent when it got away from its power running game against Boise State. This should lead to an emphasis on the “ground and pound” from both sides on Thursday, and the metrics bear out, with both teams sitting inside the top 30 in rush rate nationally. Overall, we shouldn’t expect many scoring drives to end in touchdowns from either side in this game, so let’s back the under in what should end up being the lower-scoring affair of the 2 playoff games this week.

Notre Dame vs Penn State prediction: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5.

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