Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/12/25

Diego Simeone didn’t show a lot of ambition with his team 2-1 down at the Bernabeu last week, but I don’t think that’s evidence that Real Madrid have their quarterfinal place wrapped up. The visitors head to their cross-town rivals with a poor record in big games this season despite last week’s victory. Los Blancos are winless on the road to La Liga’s top 8 so far this term, suffering 2 defeats in those 5 games.

Real have also fallen short in 2 clashes with Barcelona, while they’ve lost Champions League trips to Lille and Liverpool. The visitors were also outplayed in a visit to Atalanta earlier in the competition, while the 0.7 to 0.2 xG difference between these 2 teams last week shows that it wasn’t a dominant victory for Real.

Atletico Madrid have won 10 of their last 12 home matches since the beginning of November, and they’ve won 8 of their last 9 home Champions League ties. With Real losing 3 of their previous 5 visits to Atletico, they could be vulnerable once more and there looks to be value in the hosts picking up the win in 90 minutes.