Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/05/25

Bayern Munich have raced away at the top of the Bundesliga, but that doesn’t accurately reflect where these 2 teams are right now. Bayern struggled through a play-off game with Celtic in the last round, while Leverkusen backed up last season’s great European run with a 6th-placed finish in the League Phase. Celtic generated more Expected Goals than Bayern in their first leg and they led 1-0 at the Allianz before conceding a last-minute equalizer. The Scottish club missed good chances to double their lead, and Leverkusen should sense an opportunity to cause problems in this clash.

Leverkusen head coach Xabi Alonso has a brilliant record against Bayern as a manager, going unbeaten across all 6 encounters since taking charge in 2023. His first 2 visits to the Allianz finished level, before a 1-0 win in the German Cup in December. Leverkusen’s most complete display against Bayern came only a couple of weeks ago. They prevented the Bavarians from getting a shot on target, while Alonso’s team hit the bar twice, generating 2.0 xG. Bayern have won 18 of 19 Bundesliga clashes with teams currently 5th in the standings or below, while they have won just 1 of 5 encounters with the top 5. Alonso looks to have Bayern tactically figured out, while an all-German tie could play into Leverkusen’s hands, given the domestic pressure on the Bavarians.

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