Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/15/25

Trailing 4-0 after last week’s hammering, Borussia Dortmund’s Champions League exit looks inevitable. Their participation in the competition next season is also uncertain, as they sit 8th in the Bundesliga following a 2-2 tie with Bayern Munich on Saturday. There’s a chance that this game fizzles out, given Barcelona are set to rotate their side. While Dortmund’s focus will be on a late surge into the top 4 in the league, they should be aiming to restore some pride before exiting the Champions League.

Barcelona have little reason to risk their key players in this clash, but wholesale rotation is unlikely. A tweaked Barca lineup should ensure some entertainment at Signal Iduna Park on Tuesday, as their attacking approach has resulted in chances at both ends in Europe this term. Barca conceded 1.4 Expected Goals in their dominant first-leg win. The visitors have conceded 11.0 xG across their last six games in Europe. Among those was a 3-2 victory in Dortmund in December, in which the German team outplayed their opponents, winning the xG battle 2.7 to 2.0.

Barca’s success this season has been built on a daring approach, so it’s hard to see Hansi Flick’s team going defensive in this 2nd leg. Even their rotated forward line can cause Dortmund problems, but changes at the back suggest they could struggle to keep the hosts out. Barca tore through Dortmund last week, racking up 3.5 xG – so they were good value for their comprehensive victory. The hosts conceded 28 shots to Bayern at the weekend, with 11 of those on target. They remain vulnerable defensively, so over 3.5 goals looks the best bet here.