Soccer Picks

PSG took command of this Champions League quarterfinal with their late 3rd strike last Wednesday, handing them a comprehensive 3-1 lead over Aston Vila. After the brilliant display PSG produced against Liverpool in the Last 16, they look well-placed to deal with the threat of Aston Villa in Tuesday’s clash. Villa head coach Unai Emery has a fantastic track record in Europe, but chasing a tie like this doesn’t really play to his strengths. Villa did add plenty of attacking midfield guile in the January transfer window, but they’re going to need to rely on all of that as they try to break down a PSG side who have looked resilient in this tournament so far.

The French champions had a reputation for being a soft touch while packing their team full of stars, but Luis Enrique has overhauled that squad, turning them into a hungry, disciplined club. PSG are on course for an unbeaten season in Ligue 1, while they head to Birmingham having won 7 straight games across all competitions. Their domestic results rarely carry much prestige when compared to the rest of Europe, but shutting down Premier League leaders Liverpool last month was a statement of intent and they should win this one in 90 minutes as well.

Trailing 4-0 after last week’s hammering, Borussia Dortmund’s Champions League exit looks inevitable. Their participation in the competition next season is also uncertain, as they sit 8th in the Bundesliga following a 2-2 tie with Bayern Munich on Saturday. There’s a chance that this game fizzles out, given Barcelona are set to rotate their side. While Dortmund’s focus will be on a late surge into the top 4 in the league, they should be aiming to restore some pride before exiting the Champions League.

Barcelona have little reason to risk their key players in this clash, but wholesale rotation is unlikely. A tweaked Barca lineup should ensure some entertainment at Signal Iduna Park on Tuesday, as their attacking approach has resulted in chances at both ends in Europe this term. Barca conceded 1.4 Expected Goals in their dominant first-leg win. The visitors have conceded 11.0 xG across their last six games in Europe. Among those was a 3-2 victory in Dortmund in December, in which the German team outplayed their opponents, winning the xG battle 2.7 to 2.0.

Barca’s success this season has been built on a daring approach, so it’s hard to see Hansi Flick’s team going defensive in this 2nd leg. Even their rotated forward line can cause Dortmund problems, but changes at the back suggest they could struggle to keep the hosts out. Barca tore through Dortmund last week, racking up 3.5 xG – so they were good value for their comprehensive victory. The hosts conceded 28 shots to Bayern at the weekend, with 11 of those on target. They remain vulnerable defensively, so over 3.5 goals looks the best bet here.

Inter Milan won 2-1 in Munich last week, putting them in a strong position going into Wednesday’s 2nd leg against Bayern. The Italian champions are still in the running for a treble this season, strengthened by back-to-back victories over the last 7 days. Inter fell short in Europe last season but they’re looking dangerous in this season’s Champions League. They’ve got an impressive defensive record and they’ve made their home ground a fortress, which leaves Bayern in a difficult spot as they look to turn this tie around.

It’s easy to assume that the Italian side will look to hold firm and protect their aggregate lead, but Inter could be more ruthless here. The hosts are aiming to continue a fantastic record at their own ground, having failed to win only 4 of 23 home games across all competitions this term. Inter have won all 5 home games in the Champions League this season, overcoming Arsenal, RB Leipzig and Feyenoord. They’ve won 12 of their previous 14 home games in this competition, including 9 of their last 10.

While Bayern are aiming to get back into this tie, they’ve lost half of their road trips in the Champions League this season. They’ve been beaten at Aston Villa, Barcelona and Feyenoord. That record makes the German side look vulnerable, despite entering this clash as slight favourites. With all this in mind, Inter Milan hold the value to win this 2nd leg and advance to the Champions League semifinals.

Arsenal scored 3 2nd-half goals to secure a 3-0 1st-leg lead over Real Madrid in the Champions League quarterfinals last week, and more fireworks are expected when the 2 meet at the Bernabeu Stadium on Wednesday. Declan Rice’s stunning pair of free kicks set the Gunners on their way before Mikel Merino completed the scoring, leaving Los Blancos with a mountain to climb if their Champions League defense is to continue.

What we can expect on Wednesday is both teams to have plenty of attacking opportunities, with the hosts needing to go on the front foot early in an attempt to reduce the first-leg deficit and change the complexion of the tie. However, that could leave Real Madrid vulnerable in defense, and shutouts have been hard to come by at the Bernabeu lately. Both teams have scored in 10 of their last 11 competitive games here, and Arsenal’s last 3 on the road have featured goals at both ends, making that a standout pick for Wednesday.