Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/24/25

Tampa Bay Lightning ML over Florida Panthers (-122)

The result of Game 1 was surprising for a few reasons. Primarily, there is not much separating these teams. So, a 4-goal win was not expected. Beyond that, the Lightning have plain been the better team in the last third or so of the regular season. The last thing Tampa wants to do is head back to Sunrise and face Florida in their home barn with a 2-0 deficit. In addition to just plain being a very good team in better long-term form in the last couple of months, the Lightning have the intangibles of home-ice advantage and added urgency to even the series before going on the road.

The Lightning were 29-9-4 at home this season, which was good for 4th-best in the league in terms of home-point percentage. They also scored the 2nd-most goals per game among home teams and allowed the 2nd-fewest goals per game among home teams. The Panthers were good on the road this year, but not great. Florida had a 21-19-2 road record which was not helped down the stretch, as they have won 1 out of their last 7 games on the road. With a razor-thin margin of error between these teams, it is difficult to see the Lightning starting this series in an 0-2 hole. They are a great team in better recent form that will have added urgency. Tampa looks to be the more reliable play.

Over 5.5 (-115)

Tuesday’s Game 1 final of 6-2 made it the 6th Over in Tampa’s last 7 games, as well as their 8th consecutive Over in games played at home. Head to head, that is also the 5th Over in the last 6 played in Tampa. When the Panthers and Lightning meet, totals typically climb. That trend is not very surprising considering the offensive talent on both sides of this matchup. This matchup features 11 different 20+ goalscorers and 7 different point+ per game players. Any game featuring that much offensive talent will always give the Over plenty of appeal.

What reinforces the appeal to the Over in addition to the pure matchup and recent trends is the volatility both teams have experienced lately. The Panthers have now scored or allowed 4+ goals in 4 of their last 5 games. They are 3-2 in that span, so it has not mattered whether Florida wins or loses, their game totals have been on the high side. There is a similar volatility trend for the Lightning. They have scored or allowed 4+ goals now in 7 consecutive games. If these teams hold to their recent averages of goals either scored or allowed, the Over has a great look.

Jake Guentzel anytime goalscorer (+180)

Rightfully so, there were questions entering this season about the Lightning organization deciding to not sign long-time captain Steven Stamkos. Instead, they pivoted to Jake Guentzel. Guentzel would prove that decision to be a correct one. Guentzel finished the regular season with 41 goals and 80 points in 80 games played. That goal total was the highest of his career and the 3rd 40-goal season of his 9 years in the league. This is a guy who seems to be getting better with age and thrives in big moments.

In addition to a phenomenal regular season and impressive career in general, Guentzel’s postseason track record gives this prop even more appeal. He has tallied 39 goals and 68 points in 70 career playoff games, along with a +6 rating, an average ice-time of 19:06 per game and 8 game-winning goals. Of course, those statistics are complemented by the all-coveted Stanley Cup that Guentzel won in 2017. This is a phenomenal player with a great playoff track record. He is playing on a fantastic line and power play, and will be playing in a game that is almost a must-win for the Lightning. These +180 odds give a great bump to our Panthers vs Lightning Same Game Parlay.