Canada vs USA Prediction, Odds and 4 Nations Face-Off Final Picks for Thursday, 02/20/25

Team Canada ML over Team USA (-108)

After losing on home ice to USA, Canada will likely be more focused and play with more urgency than they have shown in their first 3 games of this tournament. It goes without saying how talented this version of Team Canada is. The tangibles are off the charts. Now, they have the intangibles of anger and urgency following Saturday’s loss to Team USA.

The primary factor in this game that could play into Canada’s favor is injuries sustained to the United States’ roster. A combination of Matthew Tkachuk, Brady Tkachuk, Charlie McAvoy and Auston Matthews have all missed time in this tournament due to injury. If any combination does not play, the advantage swings further in Canada’s favor than it already does with those players playing not being at 100%. There is a razor-thin margin of error between these teams. But with health on Canada’s side, I like their chances to win the final.

Under 5.5 (-120)

Team USA has really flexed its strength of goal prevention in this tournament and against Team Canada, specifically. They have effective 2-way forwards, a reliable group of defensemen, and arguably the best goaltender on the planet in Connor Hellebuyck. USA will likely stick to what works, which in the 4 Nations has been goal prevention.

Obviously, containing Team Canada’s superstars twice in as many games is easier said than done. But the team strength still bodes better for the Under. Offensively, the Americans may take a step back from their prior game against Canada given the injuries sustained. Missing any one of the Tkachuks, Matthews and McAvoy takes an element of physicality and pure offensive talent away from USA. The rematch sets up well for a similar final score as Saturday’s matchup, and the fact this is a final makes a conservative approach from each team even more likely.

Team Canada first to score 3 goals (+165)

Canada changed their lines for their matchup against Finland on Monday, and it appeared to work. They put up 5 goals and got points from 7 individual players. This Canadian team has worked through what went wrong against the Americans. If they have made adjustments successfully, it will be a tall task for the USA to keep Canada at bay.

As mentioned, key players on Team USA are banged up at best. If this game is less physical, it will open space for Team Canada, which does not need much space to work with as is. That would also mean offensive production for the Americans would be more difficult to come by. Add in the factor that Cale Makar did not suit up for Canada in the first game between these teams, but will be back on Thursday, and we should see improvement from this Canadian team. All of this, in addition to the pure offensive firepower of Team Canada, gives these +165 odds a ton of appeal to round out our Canada vs USA Same Game Parlay for the 4 Nations final.