NHL Picks

The Buffalo Sabres and Boston Bruins are tied for last place in the Atlantic Division and they will face-off Thursday night in Boston. The offense has been fine for both of these teams; the Bruins average 3.25 goals per game, while the Sabres average 3.00 goals per game. It has been the defensive play that has cost them. The Bruins are giving up 3.67 goals per game and the Sabres are letting in 3.10 goals per game. Because of that, they have both been playing in high-scoring games as of late. In the Sabres last 3 games, the over is 3-0. Likewise for the Bruins, the over is 4-1 in their last 5 games. These teams are both shaky on defense and it should benefit the talented players like David Pastrnak and Tage Thompson and allow them to get on the score sheet.

Given the trends for these 2 teams to begin the year, look for a high-scoring game Thursday night in Boston. They have been scoring goals at a high frequency, and I expect it to continue. I will take the over in this one.

Sabres vs. Bruins prediction: Over 6.5 (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Calgary Flames make the 2nd stop on a 4-game road trip east of the Mississippi River against the Ottawa Senators on Thursday night. The Flames were tripped up 4-3 in Toronto on Tuesday night, unable to carry over the momentum from a 5-1 win against the New York Rangers in the previous outing Sunday. The over has cashed in each of the past 3 games, too, and Calgary has notched 11 total goals in that span – the highest offensive production of any 3-game span this season. The Flames have allowed 2 or fewer goals in three of the past 5 outings, too, finally showing signs of life on defense and in goal.

The Ottawa Senators continue to adjust to life without Brady Tkachuk, as he is sidelined indefinitely due to a thumb injury. Ottawa haven’t really missed a beat, scoring 17 total goals in the past 3 games, including 7 goals in wins at Washington and home to Boston before a 7-3 loss at Chicago on Tuesday. The Senators are just 1-2-1 in 4 games against the Western Conference this season, so proceed with caution. The best play here is the over, which is 3-0 in the past 3 for Calgary, while going 6-3-2 in 11 games this season. The over is 8-3-0 in 11 games for the Senators, too, but just 3-3-0 in 6 home games, so don’t get carried away.

Flames vs Senators prediction: Over 6 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

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Thursday night NHL action on TNT begins with a matchup between the Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning. The Stars enter this one riding a 3-game win streak, having allowed just 4 total goals in that stretch. However, Dallas has been a volatile team so far this season. The Stars opened the season with a 3-game win streak, suffered a 4-game losing streak, and are now on a 3-game win streak. They allowed 4 goals per game during their latest losing streak, and while they’ve been great at limiting goals in their last 3 contests, going up against the Lightning could present a tough challenge.

After a slow start, the Lightning are finally getting rolling. Tampa Bay is also riding a 3-game win streak, and the offense has come alive. The Lightning have scored 11 total goals over their last 3 games, as it was only a matter of time until things started clicking. Tampa Bay and Dallas both have great forward depth which can lead to scoring on bunches. Neither team has been elite offensively this season, which has been somewhat surprising. But the potential and talent is there. Look to the over in this Thursday night matchup.

Stars vs Lightning prediction: Over 6 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

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The Nashville Predators are in Philadelphia to take on the Flyers for a Thursday night tilt. The Preds enter this matchup with a 4-5-2 record on the season, while the Flyers are 5-3-1. Philadelphia has been great on home ice, owning a strong 5-1-0 record at Xfinity Mobile Arena. However, 3 of their 5 home wins have come past regulation time, with their last 2 wins coming in shootouts. Obviously they deserve credit for getting the wins, but it hasn’t been from dominating performances. The Flyers rank 27th in the NHL scoring 2.67 goals per game, and their power play ranks 24th with a conversion rate of 17.2%. They are a beatable team, and should be on high alert against the Predators.

Nashville is coming off back-to-back losses to Dallas and Tampa Bay. Like the Flyers, the Predators aren’t scoring many goals this season, as their 27 total goals are good for 29th in the NHL. The Predators are a flawed team no doubt, but this is a spot where the plus-money odds are enticing. The Flyers have been somewhat fortunate to have the record they do, and their underlying metrics aren’t very promising. Regression could be incoming, and although the Predators aren’t setting the world on fire, they should come out with a spirited effort wanting to avoid a 3-game skid. Make it a small play, but consider backing Nashville on the road.

Predators vs Flyers prediction: Predators ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Both the New York Islanders and Carolina Hurricanes enter Thursday’s matchup looking to right the ship after suffering back-to-back losses in their last 2 games respectively. The Islanders simply can’t keep the puck out of their own net, but they are scoring goals at a high clip. A big reason for New York’s defensive woes has been the struggles of the penalty-killing unit. The Islanders have killed off just 71% of their opponents power plays, which ranks 24th in the league. The good news is that could be negated by Carolina’s league-worst power play percentage of 10%. Carolina has been better 5-on-5, but New York can also score goals at a high clip.

New York ranks 9th with 3.56 goals per game so far this season. The emergence of No. 1 overall pick Matthew Schaefer has provided a spark, while veterans Bo Horvat, Mathew Barzel, and Anders Lee have also found the score sheet on a consistent basis. The Islanders have had their struggles defensively, but even in their last 2 losses, they scored 5 total goals. That kind of production can keep them in any game, especially against a team in Carolina whose power play is almost non-existent. Playing on the road, back the Islanders on the puck line +1.5 in this one.

Islanders vs Hurricanes prediction: New York Islanders +1.5 (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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The Chicago Blackhawks travel to Winnipeg to take on the Jets for the first time this season. The Jets come into tonight with a 7-3-0 record, but they are just 3-3-0 on home ice. That’s a disappointing record for a team that is this talented. Connor Hellebuyck has been as advertised, but the Jets as a team have been mediocre. Their underlying numbers are not good; they don’t generate a ton of scoring chances 5-on-5 and they are allowing too many shots against. It’s early in the season and there is still time to make corrections, but for tonight I have to give Chicago some love.

The Blackhawks have started the season strong, but can they maintain this all year? In short — no. They have been really good at even strength and their team shooting percentage is way above average. Spencer Knight has also played out of his mind, sporting the third-best xGSA (8.8). He gives his team a chance to win when he is in goal. The Blackhawks are also 2-1-1 on the road, so this game probably won’t be a blowout. Will they win the game? Who knows, but they can keep it close — and there’s enough value in betting the money line.

Blackhawks vs Jets prediction: Chicago ML (+200) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Pittsburgh Penguins are in Minnesota on Thursday night to take on the Wild. Both teams are off to relatively surprising starts, but for very different reasons. The Penguins have exceeded expectations thus far, owning a strong 7-2-2 record. On the other side, the Wild have disappointed early on, owning a less-than-ideal 3-5-3 mark. Minnesota’s woes can be attributed to a lack of consistent offense. The Wild rank 25th in the league scoring 2.73 goals per game. They have been extremely reliant on the power play, as they own the best power play percentage in the league at 31.8%, but playing at even strength has been a struggle – which isn’t what you want to see if you’re a Wild fan.

The Penguins are scoring 3.64 goals per game, which is good for 5th in the league. Just how sustainable is that? Pittsburgh is overachieving relative to preseason expectations so far, but they’ve now dropped 2 of their last 3 games and their goals per game average drops to 3.33 on the road. That’s still a solid number, but the Penguins have been much better on home ice. The good news is that Pittsburgh has been stout defensively all season, allowing just 2.55 goals per game. Given the Wild’s 5-on-5 struggles this season, Pittsburgh should be able to hold Minnesota to a low goal total. All in all, this could be a low-scoring affair. Look to the under.

Penguins vs Wild prediction: Under 6.5 (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Vancouver Canucks and St. Louis Blues meet for a Tuesday night meeting in the NHL. It has been quite a rough go for these teams, as the Canucks are 1-4-0 in their last 5 games, while the Blues are on a 5-game winless streak at 0-4-1. Neither team is expected to finish in the depths of the league this season, but they will need to turn things around quickly. Here are our Canucks vs. Blues predictions for the game.

The key part of this recent rough stretch by the Blues has been their inability keep the puck out of the net. In this 5-game span, they have given up a whopping 26 goals. Vancouver has not scored at a high rate this season, but with how poor St. Louis has been, this is a great opportunity for the likes of Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, and Quinn Hughes to help drive Vancouver’s offense to multiple goals. In what should be a full and desperate effort from the Blues on home ice, I think they will also score many goals against this inconsistent opponent in an effort to break this losing skid. It should be a spirited game between 2 teams that have just 1 win in their last 10 games combined. Take over 6 for our Canucks vs. Blues prediction.

Canucks vs. Blues prediction: Over 6.0 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that total to (-125).

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The New York Rangers and Edmonton Oilers meet for the 2nd and final time this season in a matchup that should be a low-scoring affair. The Rangers are 4-1-1 on the road and have an elite goalie in Igor Shesterkin. They are coming off a 2-0 victory over the Canucks and hope to keep that momentum going. Their struggles on home ice have been well documented, along with their inability to score goals. NYR will figure it out at some point, but for now, they are relying on their goalie to keep them in games.

The Oilers are 3-0-1 at home this year, and are giving up just under 24 shots per game. It’s a good thing the shots against are low because the goaltending has been poor. As usual, the Oilers have no trouble scoring on the power play, but it’s more of a challenge 5-on-5. When you have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the same team, it doesn’t take much for them to take over a hockey game. There is a ton of skill on both sides, but for whatever reason, the scoring chances aren’t there. We’ll take a stab at the under here and hope both teams can continue their strong defensive play tonight.

Rangers vs Oilers prediction: Under 6.0 available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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The Detroit Red Wings and Los Angeles Kings meet up for a Thursday night, intra-conference battle in the NHL. These 2 have yet to meet this season, and will hit the ice for the first of 2 matchups this season. To get you set for the action to come, we have provided our expert Red Wings and predictions analysis.

These teams have accumulated a lot of recent wins, as the Red Wings have won 2-straight games, while the Kings are extremely hot at 4-0-2 in their last 6. This is exactly the performance the Kings expect, as opposed to their 1-3-1 start. This game will not be a cake walk for the Kings, though I see them taking it. I am concerned with the fact Detroit has very recently suffered multiple-goal losses to very beatable teams (Buffalo Sabres and New York Islanders), and their 2 recent wins came against the coldest team in the NHL in the St. Louis Blues. They are also on the road for this game, where the Kings are extremely due for a win on home ice (0-2-1 this season). For our Red Wings vs. Kings prediction, take the Kings to win.

Red Wings vs. Kings prediction: Los Angeles Kings ML (-140) available at time of publishing. Playable to (-160)

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