Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction, Odds and TNF Picks for Today, 11/14/24
LWWWL | Last 5 | WWWWW |
| 7-3 | Record | 7-2 |
| 7-2-1 | ATS Record | 5-4-0 |
| 7-3 | O/U Record | 4-5 |
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The Philadelphia Eagles are quietly peaking. Winners of 5 games in a row by an average margin of 16.4 ppg, haters will say that Philadelphia hasn’t faced anyone of merit lately (the last 5 opponents include Cleveland, the Giants, Jacksonville, Cincinnati and Dallas without Dak Prescott), but we see it differently. The Eagles are doing what they should be doing, dominating opponents with a sound running game, explosive plays and formidable defense. They’re also very healthy. Meanwhile, social media has been ablaze with commentary on a new contender in the NFC East, the Washington Commanders, with many claiming that Jayden Daniels has eclipsed Jalen Hurts as the division’s top QB and that Washington, not Philadelphia, is the team to fear in the conference. We think the Eagles will take that very seriously and use it for motivation.
Fresh off an easy win against the Dak-less Cowboys, Philly gets to return home feeling good about themselves. The Commanders cannot relate. Washington experienced their first loss in the last 4 weeks against Pittsburgh on Sunday, and they left banged up. Starting running back Brian Robinson Jr. and 3 offensive linemen are questionable heading into Thursday. Still, Washington has been resilient and they’ve covered against the spread in 7 games this season. The issue here is the matchup itself.
No NFL program runs the ball more than the Eagles (55.01% run-play percentage), and few outfits are as capable (Philly is top-2 in rush yards and rush TDs per game). This is a bad thing for Washington. The Commanders are among the worst units in the NFL against the run (4.8 yards/rush and 142.1 yards/game permitted, both 28th), and over the last 3 weeks they’ve allowed over 500 rushing yards to 3 mediocre units (the Bears, Giants and Steelers). On the other side, the Eagles’ defense has only gotten better (2nd in yards/points per game, 3rd in opponent red-zone TD rate), and Daniels is finally showing some imperfections in his rookie season (411 yards, 2 TDs and only a 59% completion rate the last 2 weeks).
Washington has been above-average in all regards, but regression is near. They also have yet to rest on a bye week and Thursday will mark their third travel spot in just 11 days. At Philadelphia, against an Eagles’ program that has plenty of experience in these big, marquee battles, we simply hate this spot for the road team.
Commanders vs Eagles prediction: Eagles -3.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.
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Commanders vs Eagles Pickswise Expert Predictions
Chris Farley
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Robinson is a massive return for this Commanders offense and we’re getting a slightly discounted number due to his recent absence. His median rushing yards on the season is 65 and the Eagles have benefited defensively on the ground due to situational football. Through the first 6 weeks, the Eagles allowed 22.2 carries per game to opposing running backs. Over the last 4 weeks, that number has dipped down to 15.
Let’s take a look at Philly’s recent opponents in the Giants, Cincinnati, Jacksonville and Dallas. The Giants and Cowboys games were double-digit blowouts, preventing a run game from ever being established, while Jacksonville and Cincinnati rank bottom 7 in the league in rushing attempts per game for the season. I expect this Commanders offense to ride B-Rob as much as possible and make the game easier for Daniels. This number feels too low with all reports indicating he was a full participant in practice on Wednesday and should not be limited in the game.
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The Commanders have covered the spread in 7 of their 10 games this season.
8 of the Eagles' last 10 home matchups with the Commanders have gone Over the total.
The Eagles have won their last 5 games.
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NFL Week 11 parlay at mega +1628 odds on Sunday 11/17: Packers dominate Bears in Chicago
Welcome to Week 11! It's crazy to think that the Super Bowl is less than 3 months away. But there's still plenty of action left in the regular season and it starts with this packed Week 11 slate. Her...
