HomeNFLNFL PredictionsWashington Commanders vs Detroit Lions Prediction, Odds and Picks

Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 01/18/25

Updated: 6:00 AM ET Jan 15, 2025

Ford FieldFOX

Commanders

8:15 PM ETSat Jan 18

Lions

WWWWW	Last 5	WLWWW
12-5	Record	15-2
11-6-1	ATS Record	12-5-0
11-7	O/U Record	9-8

Vote on who will cover the spread!

Commanders vs Lions Pickswise Expert Predictions

NFL

Point Spread Pick

WAS Commanders +9.5(-110)WAS Commanders @ DET Lions

Reasoning

Prior to last week’s games, I wrote at length about the ongoing struggles of rookie quarterbacks making their first career start on the road in the NFL playoffs. The last 25 years of data in those situations was part of my assessment in backing the Bills to beat the Broncos convincingly last weekend, and it was clear that Denver quarterback Bo Nix was flustered in a game of that magnitude. However, one quarterback that completely bucked the rookie trend was Jayden Daniels, as the Commanders starter played with poise and confidence to help lead his team to an upset victory over the Buccaneers to advance to the NFC Divisional round. Now, Daniels and this young team will be tasked with playing the top-seeded Detroit Lions on the road in another spot where most aren’t expecting much of them. Despite the fact that the historical data doesn’t favor the Commanders in this spot, I’m still interested in taking a shot on Washington here, especially since the high total suggests that this should be a high-variance game.

On paper, the matchup suggests that Detroit should be able to move the ball at will here. After all, the Lions’ offense ranks 3rd in EPA per play, 1st in success rate and 1st in both quality possessions generated and points per drive. Washington’s defense has been much-maligned this season, but this is pretty much a bang-average unit (16th in EPA per play, 13th in success rate allowed). Therefore, while the Lions offense (1st in success rate, 3rd in EPA per play) has the clear advantage in that matchup, it might not be as lopsided as most would think, especially after Washington put forth a strong effort against a Tampa Bay offense that was a top-5 unit in the league this season. Furthermore, both of these coaching staffs have been extremely aggressive all season long, and I wouldn’t expect that to change on Saturday. A game script that features a number of 4th-down attempts from both sides is one that typically favors the underdog, as it introduces variance into the game. That’s exactly how Washington wants to play, and it could lead to the Commanders stealing a couple of possessions and/or winning the time of possession battle — keeping Detroit’s elite offense off the field in the process.

On the other side of the ball, Detroit’s defense has been an area of concern for this team all season long, particularly in the second half of the campaign. The injuries caught up to the Lions in a major way down the stretch, and while Aaron Glenn’s unit has gotten a couple of key players back, there are still major cogs missing in the secondary, which is not ideal against a Washington passing offense that gave Tampa Bay fits a week ago. The Commanders should have potential mismatches downfield, and there could be opportunities for Terry McLaurin to make a few plays in 1-on-1 situations, as the Lions play more man coverage than any other team in the NFL. Daniels also has a ridiculous 98.1 QBR against the blitz over the past 6 games, so it’s going to be extremely difficult for Detroit to rattle this budding superstar just by bringing extra pressure. Lastly, the trends aren’t kind to home teams in this situation either. Per Evan Abrams, home teams in the Divisional Round coming off a bye are 33-42-1 against the spread (44%), since 2003. Additionally, they are 17-24-1 against the number (42%) as favorites of 7 or more points off a bye. Even against a team playing in its 2nd straight postseason road game, the team coming off the bye is still 15-22-1 ATS (41%). Look for Daniels and company to do just enough to keep this game within a possession at Ford Field.

Commanders vs Lions prediction: Commanders +9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.

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Caleb Wilfinger

NFL

Game Totals Pick

Under 55.5(-110)WAS Commanders @ DET Lions

Reasoning

This is not a wager for the faint of heart, but I can only lean toward the Under now that the line is sitting above a pretty key number in NFL totals. Part of what inspires a bit of confidence that we see a game that goes slightly under this total is the improvements that Detroit’s defense showed against Minnesota in that pivotal Week 18 game at home. We can expect Glenn and this veteran coaching staff to have all sorts of simulated pressures and exotic looks ready for Daniels, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Washington started out slow and had to play from behind for most of the game.

It also wouldn’t surprise me if Daniels’ legs also become a major factor in this game against a Detroit defensive front that has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks (most notably Josh Allen) of late. The Commanders should be able to move the ball throughout, but the Lions are an excellent red-zone unit, as we just saw against Minnesota. And on the other side, while Detroit’s offense has been incredibly consistent all season long, the Lions are prone to long scoring drives this season given that they run the ball on early downs at a pretty high rate. The last playoff game to close with a total of 55.5 or more was back in 2021 between the Browns and Chiefs, and that one went well under. This game should finish in the low 50s, so I’ll take the Under in the Motor City.

Commanders vs Lions prediction: Under 55.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Caleb Wilfinger

Show Bio

Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC. For Caleb Wilfinger media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

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