Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks for Monday, 11/04/24

Arrowhead StadiumESPN
Buccaneers
4-4
Buccaneers
Yesterday
Chiefs
7-0
Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs

Buccaneers vs Chiefs Pickswise Expert Predictions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFL
Kansas City Chiefs
Point Spread Pick
KC Chiefs -9.0(-110)TB Buccaneers @ KC Chiefs

This spread beckons a very obvious question for any bettor: sure, the Chiefs are 7-0, but do they deserve this strong of a spread against a formidable Bucs team? We can see why that answer would be a vehement, “NO!” Kansas City is the new version of the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady Patriots, hated by many NFL fans because they are always in the Super Bowl. On their quest to win 3 straight, they’ve somehow found a way to start undefeated through 7 weeks (with their bye), and many of those victories had fortunate events attached to them. Questionable officiating by the referees, savvy but controversial plays by Patrick Mahomes (like how he takes advantage of new rules and extends plays because he knows he won’t get hit) — these have become unpopular facets of experiencing a Chiefs’ game, especially if you’re a fan of the other team.

But just because you don’t like a team or a team might be getting too much fanfare, doesn’t mean that a spread is “inflated.” For starters, when the Bucs have lost this season, it’s typically been by margin. The Broncos and Ravens beat the Bucs by 10+, and even the Falcons, a team that we have power-rated very closely to the Bucs, won by 6 and 5-point margins in 2 victories. Last week was also telling, since until Week 8 Tampa had yet to lose 2 games in a row. Their injuries just proved too costly.

The Chiefs can beat teams in many ways, and so far their defense has led the charge. In 3 home games, they kept opposing offenses to just 19.3 points on average. They rank in the top 5 in points, yards, yards per rush, yards per pass and yards per pass allowed. If Baker had his full complement of skill players, we might otherwise look towards Tampa, but the KC defense will likely be far too much for the Bucs’ offense.

Buccaneers vs Chiefs prediction: Chiefs -9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.5.

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Chris R. Farley
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFL
Kansas City Chiefs
Game Totals Pick
Under 45.5(-110)TB Buccaneers @ KC Chiefs

Just over 3 years ago, these 2 franchises battled in the Super Bowl. For some, this is a distant memory and a forgotten aspect to this game, but we promise it’s not to the Chiefs. In their only Super Bowl loss, Patrick Mahomes and his teammates were bested by Tom Brady and the Bucs. It was Brady’s final, seminal moment in his legendary career, and a less-than-optimal experience for Mahomes and his teammates. In reality, it was Tampa’s defense that controlled the contest, limiting the Chiefs to 350 yards (much of it in garbage time) and forcing Mahomes into 2 untimely interceptions. Mahomes probably doesn’t care much about that now, but the familiarity between these 2 programs, who have many of the same parts as their championship rosters in 2021, beckons a different energy than most mid-season matchups. We don’t think either defense will shy away from hard hits and an aggressive approach, which is an advantage for our position on this total.

It also helps that the Chiefs aren’t firing on all of their offensive cylinders just yet. Patrick Mahomes is ironically tied with Baker Mayfield with the most INTs in the NFL (9), and the Chiefs rank as a mid-tier operation in most offensive categories. That is, except for pass completion percentage (68.44%), and they’re top-3 in 3rd and 4th-down conversion rate, more proof of their mastery of situational football. Regardless, with Andy Reid’s continual emphasis on running the ball (they are 10th in rush-play percentage) and Tampa’s stuttering offense without its 2 star wideouts, we can only expect minimal scoring.

Buccaneers vs Chiefs pick: Under 45.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chris R. Farley
Photo of Chris Farley

Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.
Read more about Chris Farley

Same Game Parlay

Point Spread
KC Chiefs -9.5
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
T. Kelce (KC) to score a TD
Player Passing Yards
B. Mayfield (TB) - 250+ pass yds

Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-110)

In their quest to win 3 straight Super Bowls, the Chiefs have somehow found a way to start 7-0. Although there have been some very close calls, they have won each of their last 4 games by at least a touchdown. Travis Kelce is heating up and Kareem Hunt has done a nice job of stabilizing the running-back position in the absence of Isiah Pacheco.

Of course, the biggest reasons for the Chiefs’ success are an outstanding defense and Patrick Mahomes under center. Those factors simply aren’t going away. Kansas City ranks in the top 5 in points, yards, yards per rush, yards per pass and yards per pass allowed. Mahomes doesn’t have to be great for this team to keep winning. Now the Chiefs are facing a Tampa Bay squad that is missing wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Bucs just aren’t the same without those 2 players. They have lost 4 of their last 6 games and another setback is almost certainly coming.

Travis Kelce to score a touchdown (+115)

Here comes Kelce! Following an alarmingly slow start to the year, the star tight end has heated up. He has gotten at least 9 targets in 4 consecutive contests and has made 30 receptions during this stretch. Last weekend, he had 10 catches on 12 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown during a win over the Las Vegas Raiders. As for Tampa Bay’s defense, it is #29 in the NFL against the pass and has surrendered the 5th-most passing touchdowns (15). This is a great opportunity for Kelce to put up more big numbers.

Baker Mayfield to record 250+ passing yards (+116)

Even without Evans and Godwin, Baker Mayfield can be expected to post considerable statistics on sheer volume alone. The Bucs will probably be playing from behind the entire way, which means they will have to air it out early and often. That’s why this prop really doesn’t conflict at all with Kansas City prevailing by double-digits. In the first game following the injuries last weekend, Tampa Bay got thumped at home by the Atlanta Falcons and Mayfield still threw for 330 yards. Cade Otton went for 81 yards on 9 receptions, while running backs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White picked up the slack in the passing game with a combined 12 catches for 78 yards. The Chiefs are incredible against the run (2nd in the league at 82.3 yards per game), giving Mayfield all the more reason to hit the airwaves.

Ricky Dimon

Pickswise Expert Prop Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Player Receptions Pick
D. Hopkins (KC) - Over 3.5 recs(-128)

Next man up in Kansas City is a fairly normal phrase, but in this case, the next man is a former three-time First Team All-Pro wide receiver in Deandre Hopkins. Last week was Hopkins’ first game as a Chief, where he caught 2 passes on 3 targets in 32% of snaps. I expect a much larger snap count on MNF with an additional week to learn the playbook. The weekly coach transcript includes blurbs about him picking up the playbook quickly, but that’s as expected. For me, this line is still too low even given his short time with Matt Nagy’s playbook.

I rewatched all 3 targets for Hopkins last week and they were all intermediate routes and pushing towards the sideline. I expect KC to draw up a few plays for him as the first read to get the ball into his hands to make plays. The Chiefs will be down to Xavier Worthy, Justin Watson and Mecole Hardman at the WR position so this line is worth the juice even with his lack of experience.

Kansas City Chiefs
Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
X. Worthy (KC) to score a TD(+230)

I’m all for the attention DeAndre Hopkins is getting since joining the Chiefs. After Rashee Rice went down with a knee injury that will hold him out for the rest of the season, the Chiefs needed another playmaker on offense. But Xavier Worthy has quietly played exceptionally well for a rookie. His 17% target share on the year leads the Chiefs’ entire wide receiver room. Even more importantly, that number has skyrocketed to 26.7% over the last 2 weeks. The Chiefs’ implied team total is upwards of 25 on some books, and I’d expect Worthy to contribute to that. At +230 odds, we’re getting great value on the rookie finding the end zone.

Kansas City Chiefs
jutpicks
Justin Martin (JutPicks)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
N. Gray (KC) to score a TD(+480)

With the lack of playmakers on the Chiefs, Noah Gray has filled a nice void this season. He’s logged 58% of the snaps on offense this season, including back-to-back season highs. He’s reeled in 17 of his 18 targets this season for a 94% success rate, making him a trusted target of Patrick Mahomes. With all the attention on Travis Kelce down the middle of the field and Worthy taking the top off of the defense, Gray could sneak through and find the end zone for the first time this season. At +480 odds, I think it’s worth taking a shot on him.

Kansas City Chiefs
jutpicks
Justin Martin (JutPicks)

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Top Trends
Point Spread

The Chiefs are 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 games.

Game Totals

The Over is 6-2 in Buccaneers games this season.

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Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, KY, MI, NJ, OH, PA, IL, TN, VA, VT), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV).

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,000

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

21+. New users and first wager only. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Know When To Stop Before You Start.® Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. MA: CALL 1-800-327-5050 NY: Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369)

DraftKings

$200

Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5 on any sports market and get $200 in bonus bets

PLUS 1 Month NFL+ Premium Subscription

Gambling Problem? Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (CO/IL/IN/LA/MD/MI/NJ/PA/TN/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA). 21+ (18+ WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA(select parishes)/MD/MI/NJ/NY/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Void in OH/ONT. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid 1 per new customer. Min. $5 deposit. Min. $5 bet. $200 issued as bonus bets that expire 7 days (168 hours) after being awarded. See terms at sportsbook.draftkings.com.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1000

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account and Place your 1st wager of $10 or more

Place your first wager up to $1,000

If the bet loses, earn a one-time Bonus Bet token equal to the qualifying wager

21+. New users and first wager only. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Know When To Stop Before You Start.® Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. MA: CALL 1-800-327-5050 NY: Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369)

FanDuel Sportsbook

$150

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins + 3 Free Months of NBA League Pass

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account

Bet $5 on any sport

Get $150 in bonus bets if your bet wins

Plus you'll get 3 free months of NBA League Pass!

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, KY, MI, NJ, OH, PA, IL, TN, VA, VT), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV).

DraftKings

$200

Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5 on any sports market and get $200 in bonus bets

PLUS 1 Month NFL+ Premium Subscription

Gambling Problem? Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (CO/IL/IN/LA/MD/MI/NJ/PA/TN/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA). 21+ (18+ WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA(select parishes)/MD/MI/NJ/NY/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Void in OH/ONT. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid 1 per new customer. Min. $5 deposit. Min. $5 bet. $200 issued as bonus bets that expire 7 days (168 hours) after being awarded. See terms at sportsbook.draftkings.com.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,000

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account and Place your 1st wager of $10 or more

Place your first wager up to $1,000

If the bet losses, earn a a one-time Bonus Bettoken equal to the qualifying wager

21+. New users and first wager only. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Know When To Stop Before You Start.® Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. MA: CALL 1-800-327-5050 NY: Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369)

bet365

$1,000

Bet $5 and Get $200 in Bonus Bets OR $1,000 Back If Your First Bet Loses

Register for a new bet365 account

Place $5+ and get $200 in bonus bets - no matter if your bet wins or loses

OR $1,000 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. 21+. Physically present in OH, CO, NJ, VA, IA, KY, LA, AZ, IN. Eligibility restrictions apply. Subject to regulatory licensing requirements. Opt-in req. Valid 1 per customer. Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New Customers only. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply

Underdog Fantasy

$1,000

First Time Deposit Offer up to $1,000 in Bonus Cash

Sign up for a new account with Underdog Fantasy

Make your first deposit up to $1,000

Get a 100% deposit match, and new users can get up to $1,000 in bonus cash on their first deposit

Must be 21+ to play. Terms & conditions apply

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