Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/01/24

I had to rub my eyes and double check that this Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers spread was actually only 5.5 points. I had projected this spread to be closer to a touchdown, so I’ll happily take the gift of a few points and back the Buccaneers on the spread. Baker Mayfield is coming off a dominant performance against the Giants in New York; he went 24 of 30 for 294 yards and added a rushing touchdown himself. The Bucs left New York with a 30-7 win over the Giants. If you can’t tell, this is the easier section of their schedule. Mayfield will take on a Panthers secondary that is allowing the 9th-most passing yards per game and has been shredded by elite quarterbacks. Just last week the Carolina defense allowed Patrick Mahomes to throw for 3 touchdowns. But here’s the thing: the Bucs are likely going to do most of their damage on the ground. The Panthers are allowing over 160 rushing yards per game, which is by far the worst mark in football. That means the 2-headed monster of Rachaad White and Bucky Irving is going to feast all game.

The Panthers won back-to-back games and then even managed to lose on a last-second field goal to the Chiefs last week. It’s impressive and you have to pat Bryce Young on the back for the way he bounced back from the benching earlier in the season. However, his improvement in the pocket won’t change how the defense performs. Carolina has been shredded on the ground all season long and now has to face a pair of strong backs that can run and catch. And downfield, Mayfield will have Mike Evans and Cade Otton available for the big play. I’m confident that the Bucs will win by at least a touchdown, so let’s take the -5.5 spread as an early holiday gift.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers prediction: Buccaneers -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.5.

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I’m taking the over with the expectation that the Bucs do most of the scoring and the Panthers are able to contribute just enough to push the total over. Carolina ranks dead last in points allowed per game at over 30, which leads me to believe that Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are going to get pretty close to that number. In the last few weeks, the Panthers have allowed 28 points to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, 40 to Jayden Daniels and the Commanders, 28 to Bo Nix and the Broncos and 38 to Kirk Cousins and the Falcons. Even Daniel Jones and the Giants were able to score 17 points against the Panthers, which means I’m expecting Tampa Bay’s floor to be about 21 points.

Bryce Young got benched early in the season and the label of bust started to float around. But props to him for sticking through it; he has been much better since getting the starting job back. Young has thrown 5 touchdowns in the last 4 weeks, which is a pretty big improvement from his first 2 games in which he failed to reach the endzone and threw 3 interceptions. The Alabama product will get a chance to stay in decent form against a Bucs defense that has allowed the 9th-most points per game and can be susceptible in the secondary. I’m anticipating a score close to 31-17 in favor of the Bucs, so let’s back the over in Carolina.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers prediction: Over 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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