Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/03/24

Updated: 9:52 AM ET Oct 03, 2024

Mercedes-Benz StadiumAmazon Prime

Buccaneers

8:15 PM ETToday

Falcons

LWWLW	Last 5	LLWLW
3-1	Record	2-2
3-1-0	ATS Record	1-3-0
2-2	O/U Record	1-3

Buccaneers vs Falcons Pickswise Expert Predictions

NFL

Point Spread Pick

TB Buccaneers +1.5(-110)TB Buccaneers @ ATL Falcons

Reasoning

The Atlanta Falcons are a tough team to figure out. On the one hand, they played really well in a few spots this season, like their win at Philadelphia or their closely-fought game against the Chiefs, even in a loss. Last Sunday wasn’t one of those games. At home and favored slightly to win against the Saints, the Falcons couldn’t score a single offensive touchdown. Their defense was even worse, permitting 25 first downs and 366 total yards, resulting in a severe disparity in time of possession (35:42 to 24:18 in favor of New Orleans). The visiting team just made too many mistakes, which led to field goals and TDs by the Falcons’ defense/special teams, but we didn’t come away from that game feeling better about Raheem Morris’ program. If anything, we demoted the Falcons a few points in our power ratings.

We can’t say the same about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa completely dominated the Eagles on Sunday, in a way that even the box score couldn’t comprehensively show. Baker Mayfield threw for 347 yards and 2 TDs, and the Bucs outgained the Eagles by over 200 yards (445 to 227). Whether the Eagles had a “down game” or not, it was an incredibly impressive showing from a Bucs team that controlled the entire Week 4 contest. It was a great bounce-back spot after a head-scratching showing in Week 3 against the Broncos.

Tampa’s only red flag heading into Thursday Night Football is their injury report. The Buccaneers already have a ton of banged-up players – from Mike Evans to multiple offensive linemen and others – but the good news is that 90% of their injury list played in Week 4. We project the same for a big divisional game at Atlanta. And it’s not like the Falcons are the picture of health, either. Multiple questionable tags are assigned to their starters, but no designation is as worrisome as Bijan Robinson, who’s dealing with an ongoing hamstring ailment. Any way we look at this battle, it’s an even affair. We recommend taking Tampa as a teaser leg. If we must pick a side, the value is on the very feisty underdog.

Buccaneers vs Falcons prediction: Bucs +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $200 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Buccaneers vs Falcons predictions.

BET +1.5 NOW WITH

Chris R. Farley

NFL

Game Totals Pick

Under 43.5(-110)TB Buccaneers @ ATL Falcons

Reasoning

Through 4 weeks, the Atlanta Falcons have been an “Under” team (3-1 to the under, to be exact), but they’ve also faced mostly sub-par offenses. The Steelers’ offense needs no introduction, the Eagles’ offense is struggling early, and the Chiefs aren’t looking anything close to a Super Bowl program (45.45% TD rate in the red zone, a 24th rank). That explains at least part of their results, but the Falcons’ offense is far from at its top form yet, either. Atlanta ranks 22nd in ppg (18.8), they struggle mightily on third down (26.32% conversion rate, 29th), and Kirk Cousins has yet to settle in (he ranks in the bottom third in completion percentage and INTs thrown). Coming off a win where they never reached the end zone, Cousins and company will hope to improve on Thursday night, but 3 days of rest probably isn’t enough to bring transformational change to an offense that’s sputtering.

The real question lies with the Buccaneers and what kind of game they’ll produce, which is another tough inquiry. The Bucs have had highs and lows through 4 weeks and they haven’t shown any consistency yet. They should have lost at Detroit, a game where they only gained 216 yards, and in Week 3 they were limited to only 223 yards and a pathetic 7 points at home against Denver. We tend to think last week was more about the Philadelphia Eagles, a team that’s in flux and just can’t get by Tampa. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs took advantage, but Thursday presents a different challenge.

A divisional matchup conjures lower scoring and more defense because both teams know one another so well. The same qualifies on Thursday, on a short week where neither team will be able to plan for very long. This total has been frozen at 43.5, meaning big-money-bettors are largely undecided about how many points will be scored. From our perspective, both offenses are injury-plagued and this should be a hard-hitting war, especially considering how meaningful this game is in the NFC South, even if it is early. Those factors suggest the scoreboard won’t be lighting up very often.

Buccaneers vs Falcons pick: Under 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Bet like a Caesar with this awesome new customer offer from Caesars, where you can get a welcome boost worth up to $1,000 on Caesars. Become a Caesars member 👥 using the Caesars promo code PICKSWISE1000, where you can bet on our Buccaneers vs Falcons picks.

BET u43.5 NOW WITH

Chris R. Farley

Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

@FarleyBets

Same Game Parlay

Alternate Point Spread

ATL Falcons -2.5

Player Receiving Yards

B. Robinson (ATL) - Over 25.5 rec yds

Player Passing Yards

B. Mayfield (TB) - 250+ pass yds

Reasoning

Atlanta Falcons -2.5 alternate spread over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-102)

The Falcons did not look great in Week 1 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but they have improved significantly over the past 3 games. A slow start followed by clear improvement is what was expected for a team that has a lot of new pieces on both sides of the ball — including quarterback Kirk Cousins. Atlanta is 2-1 in its last 3 with a competitive loss to the Kansas City Chiefs during this stretch. The Bucs are also playing well for the most part, but a 26-7 home loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 3 remains alarming. Tampa Bay is dealing with injury issues all over the field, including DT Calijah Kancey (still out with a calf problem). There is a laundry list of guys who are questionable for Thursday. Regardless of their status, this is a good spot for the Falcons. They are playing their 3rd home game in the span of 3 weeks — not a common occurrence in the NFL. Look for ATL to take advantage and prevail by at least a field goal to start our Bucs vs Falcons Same Game Parlay.

Bijan Robinson Over 25.5 receiving yards (-113)

Atlanta has been unable to get its rushing game going so far in 2024. It may be able to on Thursday depending on the health of Tampa Bay’s defensive line, but the greater likelihood is that Robinson will do damage in the passing game. He has made 15 catches on 16 targets for 135 yards through 4 games. Cousins is not particularly mobile and will need to get the ball out quickly behind an offensive line that is without starting center Drew Dalman and possibly without tackle Kaleb McGary. As for the Bucs’ defense, it is allowing the second-most receptions (6.5) and the second-most receiving yards (60.8) to running backs so far this season.

Baker Mayfield to record 250+ passing yards (+122)

Mayfield has been stellar this season; he has already thrown for 984 yards to go along with 8 TDs and 2 INTs. The former #1 overall pick is coming off a 347-yard effort against the Philadelphia Eagles. Tampa Bay now faces an Atlanta defense that is allowing just 4.0 yards per carry (8th-best in the NFL), so Mayfield and company may take to the air. The Falcons are dead last in the league with an anemic 4 sacks, so Mayfield should have plenty of time to operate in the pocket. He is probably in line for another big passing performance.

BET +718 NOW WITH

Ricky Dimon

Pickswise Expert Prop Picks

Player Receiving Yards Pick

R. White (TB) - Over 22.5 rec yds(-110)

Reasoning

Much has been made lately of the rise of Bucky Irving earning a 50% snap share for the Buccaneers offense the last 2 weeks. While I don’t doubt his value on the ground, it’s White’s value in the passing game that excites me Thursday night. The Falcons run a zone defense at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL so far and that is where White can contribute; especially in the wake of Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan missing snaps. White has seen 12 of his 15 targets this season against zone defense, going for 8.7 y/r.

His receptions line is all the way up to 3.5, but I see him landing in the 5-7 target range for this matchup. His ability to get open underneath should prove to be valuable should Tampa play from behind on Thursday night. White’s 133 receiving yards as a running back ranks 6th best just behind Kamara, Hill, Jones, Robinson and Hall. Despite losing share to Irving, White is still running routes on 46% of his snaps. 1u.

BET +22.5 NOW WITH

Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

C. Godwin (TB) to score a TD(+160)

Reasoning

The Buccaneers wide receiver room took a hit last Sunday against the Eagles. They will be without both Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan on Thursday Night Football, which puts even more responsibility on Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. The pair already make up 49.3% of the Buccaneers’ target share through the first 4 weeks. McMillan has been the team’s only deep threat this season with an aDOT of 15.6, so look for Mayfield to be a tad more conservative and look for Godwin in the slot often — especially in the red zone where he’s caught all 4 targets and scored twice.

BET +160 NOW WITH

Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

R. McCloud (ATL) to score a TD(+333)

Reasoning

Ray-Ray McCloud is off to the best start of his 6-year career on his 4th team. He’s been an excellent addition alongside Kirk Cousins, as he has a 19.5% target share — behind Drake London and Darnell Mooney. Tight end Kyle Pitts continues to be non-existent, and McCloud looks to be filling that receiving void well. I’m looking to avoid the backfield for the Falcons. Tyler Allgeier continues to run the ball well and eat into Bijan Robinson’s workload. Meanwhile, London and Mooney are solid looks at finding the end zone, but I’d instead pivot to McCloud and the price of +333 with the Buccaneers missing Antoine Winfield Jr. in the secondary.

BET +333 NOW WITH

Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Featured In

SGP

8:20 PM ETToday

Buccaneers vs Falcons TNF Same Game Parlay

Model projections coming soon

Top Trends

Money Line

The Buccaneers have won on 4 of their last 5 visits to the Falcons.

Game Totals

3 of the Falcons' 4 games this season have gone Under the points total.

Point Spread

The Falcons have not won by more than 2 points this season.