Pittsburgh Steelers vs Washington Commanders Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 11/10/24
LLWWW | Last 5 | WLWWW |
| 6-2 | Record | 7-2 |
| 6-2-0 | ATS Record | 7-1-1 |
| 4-4 | O/U Record | 6-3 |
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The Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders will face off this Sunday in a battle between 2 of the biggest surprises this season. Pittsburgh’s win total was 8.5 entering the year, while Washington just surpassed their 6.5 win total with their 7th win last week. Additionally, Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels is the odds-on favorite to win the NFL Rookie of the Year, and he’s even in the race for NFL MVP (+1000 at Caesars Sportsbook). Daniels has completely revitalized a Washington offense that ranks #1 in the NFL in expected points added (EPA), and it can’t be understated how he’s changed this team. However, he will likely have his work cut out for him this Sunday, as Pittsburgh is the best defense the Commanders will go up against this season.
The Steelers are 6th in the NFL in defensive EPA (-0.08 EPA) and give up just 14.9 points per game (2nd in the NFL). They’ve been extremely good at stopping the run (90.5 yards allowed per contest — 4th in the NFL), which is necessary against a Commanders offense that racks up 163.9 rushing yards per game (3rd in the NFL). Additionally, QB Russell Wilson has played great since his first start in Week 7, as the Steelers rank 5th in the NFL in offensive EPA with Wilson under center. Now he will face a Commanders defense that has played well the last 3 weeks, but those games were against the Giants, Bears and Panthers, who all rank in the bottom half of the NFL in scoring.
I expected this game to be closer to a pick ‘em, as the Commanders’ lone win against a team with a winning record was against the Cardinals. Additionally, Washington head coach Dan Quinn is just 25-35 ATS as a favorite, while Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is 61-35-4 ATS and Wilson is 40-23-2 ATS as an underdog. Finally, the Steelers are coming off their bye week, and Tomlin’s team has gone 13-4 after the bye, winning 7 straight contests. Expect all 4 trends to continue this Sunday and back the Steelers to cover the spread and possibly win this game outright.
Steelers vs Commanders prediction: Pittsburgh +2.5 (+100) available at time of publishing, playable down to +1.5 (-110).
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Steelers vs Commanders Pickswise Expert Predictions
Luke Lindholm
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The Steelers are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games.
The Under has been a winning bet in the Steelers' last 3 games coming off a bye week.
The Steelers have won 4 of their last 5 games as underdogs.
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