HomeNFLNFL PredictionsPittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns Prediction, Odds and TNF Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns Prediction, Odds and TNF Picks for Thursday, 11/21/24

Updated: 8:52 AM ET Nov 21, 2024

Huntington Bank FieldAmazon Prime Video

Steelers

8:15 PM ETYesterday

Browns

WWWWW	Last 5	LLWLL
8-2	Record	2-8
8-2-0	ATS Record	3-7-0
5-5	O/U Record	4-6

Steelers vs Browns Pickswise Expert Predictions

NFL

Point Spread Pick

PIT Steelers -3.5(-110)PIT Steelers @ CLE Browns

Reasoning

The Steelers are coming off one of their most impressive wins of the season, defeating their arch-rival, the Baltimore Ravens, and solidifying their spot at the top of the AFC North. Pittsburgh didn’t score a single TD in their win, which is somewhat concerning, but their defense was extremely focused. By now, even non-NFL fans know that the Ravens are one of the premiere offenses in the league, but the hometown Steelers kept the visitors to just 329 yards and 16 first downs. They also held Derrick Henry to just 65 yards and forced 3 turnovers. No matter what brand of offense they bring, if the Steelers can continue to play at that level defensively, this is a program that can go far. The question for Thursday is – on a short week and off such an emotional victory, how motivated will Pittsburgh be in what we’d perceive to be a quintessential “let-down” spot against a spiraling Cleveland squad?

By “spiraling,” we’re probably taking it easy on the Browns. Last week, Jameis Winston returned to the venue where he last played, a spot where many thought he’d shine, and instead the Browns were taken to the woodshed. After a close first half, New Orleans cruised to 35-14 victory in the bayou, as Cleveland permitted 473 yards to a Saints offense that’s looked pedestrian in previous weeks. The Browns put up plenty of offense, too (442 yards), but their defense was just too flawed, allowing a staggering 8.2 yards per play. But that’s not an outlier this season – Cleveland allows explosive plays to opposing offenses very often, rated 27th or worse in opponent points per play, and yards per pass/rush. The Browns have lost 7 of their last 8 contests and their point-differential is a disgusting -9.4 margin per game in that span.

The Steelers deserve their designation as road favorites on Thursday Night Football, and we could argue they should be an even stronger favorite. Sure, it’s a short week, on the road, off a big win, but Pittsburgh has been as consistent as any program in the NFL and they just had a “bye” in Week 9. These are 2 franchises going in opposite directions and, despite a low-total and perceived close game by oddsmakers, we see the visitors pulling away late.

Steelers vs Browns prediction: Steelers -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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Chris R. Farley

NFL

Game Totals Pick

Over 36.0(-110)PIT Steelers @ CLE Browns

Reasoning

The total for TNF is staggeringly low for good reason, as another battle in the AFC North commences and we’ve all come to expect extremely low-scoring contests. After all, in their last 6 regular season battles, these 2 rivals have averaged just 37.3 ppg — not exactly offensive showcases! Despite all the evidence suggesting a low-scoring affair, we’re not so sure, especially after what we saw from Cleveland’s defense last week.

The reason why divisional games can be so defensively oriented is because of how familiar teams are with each other. To some degree, Cleveland’s struggles should have been expected last Sunday. The Browns were in uncharted territory, against a rare opponent, and their defense has struggled all year in these scenarios (they allowed 33 versus Dallas, 34 against Washington and 27 against the Chargers). Our issue with this total, which is exceedingly low at just 36 points, is that Cleveland’s defense has struggled all season, regardless of the opponent. Against their limping defense, Baltimore put up 29, and even 4 NFC East opponents averaged 27 ppg. The Browns’ defense has been a proud unit for the last few seasons, widely regarded as one of the best in the NFL, but after a 10-game sample size this year it’s evident they’re not made of the same substance. They can’t stop teams from scoring TDs in the red zone (24th), they’re not forcing turnovers (30th in takeaways per game), and they’re bottom 5 on yards allowed per play. The Pittsburgh offense has been far more explosive with Russell Wilson under center, averaging over 27 ppg and 362 ypg. Since we don’t think Cleveland can go enough to slow them down, we’re looking at the Over.

Steelers vs Browns prediction: Over 36 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 36.5.

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Chris R. Farley

Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

@FarleyBets

Same Game Parlay

Alternate Point Spread

PIT Steelers -5.5

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

G. Pickens (PIT) to score a TD

Player Rushing Yards

N. Harris (PIT) - Over 63.5 rush yds

Reasoning

Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 alternate spread over Cleveland Browns (+114)

I generally don’t love giving more than a field goal in any AFC North matchup (those always seem to be competitive, physical dogfights), but there are exceptions to that rule – and this is one of those exceptions. After all, these are 2 franchises going in different directions. Under head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers – who are in line for yet another winning season – always seem to be trending upward. The Browns, on the other hand, are going nowhere fast – bogged down by the outrageous Deshaun Watson contract. Will home-field advantage do anything to help Cleveland? It’s unlikely, as head coach Kevin Stefanski’s club is 1-4 so far this year at Huntington Bank Field. The bottom line is that the Steelers are rolling and the Browns are most definitely not. Give me the visitors to win by at least a touchdown.

George Pickens to score a touchdown (+230)

Pickens has scored only 2 touchdowns this year, but both of those have come in the last 4 weeks. With Wilson throwing him the ball, Pickens is enjoying by far his best 4-game stretch of the season. The former Georgia standout has made 22 receptions on 33 targets, with 365 yards to go along with his 2 TDs. He now faces a Cleveland defense that has surrendered 14 touchdowns through the air while intercepting a mere 2 passes. It’s also worth noting that the Browns allow the 4th-most yards per pass attempt in the NFL (7.8). Count on another big performance by Pickens, who has great anytime touchdown scorer value at +230.

Najee Harris Over 63.5 rushing yards (-113)

The predicted game script – leading to a comfortable win for Pittsburgh – would result in a whole host of carries for Harris. If the Steelers jump out to a lead and maintain it, they can keep feeding the rock to Harris and run the clock. The Alabama product has exceeded this 63.5 number in 6 of 10 games this season and he missed it on the hook last week against Baltimore. Harris has surpassed the 100-yard mark in 3 of the last 5 contests. He has gotten at least 18 carries in 4 straight games, having previously gotten 18 only twice in the first 6. All signs point to a heavy workload on Thursday, one that the 26-year-old should make the most of by parlaying into significant yardage.

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Ricky Dimon

Pickswise Expert Prop Picks

Player Receiving Yards Pick

E. Moore (CLE) - Over 34.5 rec yds(-110)

Reasoning

Elijah Moore is a former 2nd round pick who was highly touted coming out of Ole Miss. AJ Brown once stated he would bet his yearly salary on Moore winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. Luckily, that debt never came to be collected, but you can see glimpses of what made Moore so sought after. In the 3 starts for Jameis Winston, Moore has tied his previous games’ targets (29). He’s hit this number in 2 of 3 of those starts with long receptions of 17, 19 and 30. Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman and Moore are the top 3 in this offense, but Moore has seen first-read looks on 23.9% of routes. It helps that the Steelers allow the 6th-most receiving yards to slot receivers this season.

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Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

J. Warren (PIT) to score a TD(+275)

Reasoning

The Steelers are coming off an impressive win over the Baltimore Ravens while not scoring a touchdown. Meanwhile, the Browns fell to the Saints by a score of 35-14 in Jameis Winston’s return to New Orleans. They allowed 3 rushing touchdowns alone to gadget player Taysom Hill.

Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris continue to be a great 1-2 punch out of the backfield. Since Warren returned to full strength, he’s registered at least 10 touches in 4 straight games. His rushing attempts line hovers at 9.5 on multiple books, while Harris is at 17.5. You can find Harris to score at +105 on DraftKings, but Warren at +275 is the better pivot. The conditions call for rain, and we’re expected to see a heavy dose of the running game from the Steelers in a projected positive game script.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

E. Moore (CLE) to score a TD(+475)

Reasoning

The Cleveland Browns’ offense looks revitalized with Jameis Winston under center. He nearly threw for 400 yards last week in New Orleans, with 234 coming in the 1st half. Nick Chubb will be playing in his 5th game after returning from a gruesome knee injury he sustained against this same Steelers defense. He’s yet to break out or get a full workload, largely due to the Browns playing from behind. That said, I’m targeting wide receiver Elijah Moore, who is averaging a 22% target share with Winston under center.

Even in wet conditions, the Browns will most likely be in a pass-heavy game script. Over the last 3 games, the Steelers rank in the top 3 in time of possession. It likely won’t take long for the Browns to abandon the run game altogether, as they did in the 2nd half last week, with Chubb rushing the ball just 5 times. Moore reeled in his 1st touchdown of the year last week on a dart from Winston in the back of the end zone. Moore adjusted well to the ball and toe-tapped for the touchdown. At +475, I’m willing to take a flyer on Moore with Winston’s pass attempts line at 34.5.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)

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SGP

8:15 PM ETYesterday

Steelers vs Browns TNF Same Game Parlay

Top Trends

Point Spread

The Steelers have covered the Spread in four of their last five matchups against AFC North opponents.

Game Totals

5 of the Steelers' last 6 matchups against AFC North teams have gone Under the total.

Money Line

The Steelers have won their last 4 matchups against AFC North opposition.

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