New Orleans Saints vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Monday, 10/07/24

Updated: 5:17 AM ET Oct 03, 2024

Arrowhead StadiumESPN

Saints

8:15 PM ETMon Oct 7

Chiefs

WWWLL	Last 5	WWWWW
2-2	Record	4-0
3-1-0	ATS Record	2-1-1
3-1	O/U Record	2-2

Saints vs Chiefs Pickswise Expert Predictions

NFL

Money Line Pick

NO Saints Win(+210)NO Saints @ KC Chiefs

Reasoning

No Week 5 game had more immediate and drastic line movement in both the spread and total as this Monday Night Football matchup. The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 for now, but one could certainly argue that there’s trouble in paradise. Two weeks after losing Isiah Pacheco, their dynamic running back, their #1 wide receiver, Rashee Rice, now joins his colleague on the bench with a knee injury. Patrick Mahomes was already holding the team on his shoulders too much, but the Chiefs’ offense may finally be in a dangerously vulnerable position, one that’s too hard to overcome. On Monday, they’ll face a defense that’s displayed impressive performances week after week so far this season, which is likely why the spread moved down so assertively after it opened at Kansas City -6.5.

Don’t get us wrong, we weren’t very high on the Saints coming into this season. The raw talent on their defense is hard to deny, but last year Derek Carr and a struggling offense couldn’t maintain any consistency. That led to very mediocre results and an overall program that we could only deem “average,” but new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is already transforming their identity. No team is scoring more (31.8 ppg), they’re committed to the run game (34.5 rushes per game, 1st), and Carr is clearly comfortable in Kubiak’s new system, earning top-5 marks in yards per pass (8.2) and completion rate (71.29%). That’s a drastic turnaround from the product we saw on the field in 2023. And the reality is, New Orleans could easily be 4-0. They never allowed an offensive TD last week at Atlanta, it was mistakes and mishaps that generated that loss, and they shut down Philly in the first half of Week 3 before Jalen Hurts and the Eagles rallied late.

Derek Carr played 9 seasons in the AFC West as the Raiders quarterback, so he knows the Chiefs and Arrowhead Stadium very well. Dennis Allen, Klint Kubiak and a pissed off Saints coaching staff must be frustrated after watching their team lose 2 straight weeks where they conceivably had both games in the bag. Kansas City, although at home and equipped with a defense that’s still playing very well, is due for serious regression, especially with their new injury bug. This spread moved quickly for a reason, but there’s still plenty of value on the pooch on the money line.

Saints vs Chiefs prediction: Saints ML (+210) available at time of publishing. Playable to +180.

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Chris R. Farley

NFL

Game Totals Pick

Under 43.5(-110)NO Saints @ KC Chiefs

Reasoning

Along with the spread, we saw very quick movement on this total from the opener (45.5) to 42.5, initially. Now it sits a point above, but we agree with the adjustments made by oddsmakers. After all, Kansas City might have no choice but to rely on their defense. The banged-up Chiefs get to return home after losing Rashee Rice in Week 4, and they’re starting to run out of receiving options. Travis Kelce, the future Hall-of-Fame tight end, has been kept in check, often double-teamed and limited to just 40 yards per game through 4 weeks, and rookie wideout Xavier Worthy has highlight-reel speed but is he ready to be Mahomes’ #1 option? The answer is very likely no. Kareem Hunt rejoined his former team last week, but we’re not exactly ready to trust the aging running back in a bigger role, either. Of course, when a team has the league’s best quarterback and head coach and play-caller, there’s always a chance, but this is a tough position for a Kansas City squad that’s up against a very formidable defense.

On the other side, Derek Carr and the Saints’ offense won’t be in a prime spot, either. Kansas City is very hard to run on (3.8 yards per carry allowed, 4th), and they have one of the NFL’s best defenses in their own territory, ranking 7th in TDs allowed in the red zone (42.86%) and ppg allowed (18). Carr has also struggled in his career at Arrowhead. In his last 7 starts, all with the Raiders, he hasn’t fared very well: 227 pass yards, 1 INT, 1 TD per game. He’ll have a new play-caller and weapons at his disposal, but Steve Spagnuolo and a game-ready defense won’t make it easy for New Orleans to score points in a nationally televised contest. No matter what side or which way you look at this game, it screams ball control and defense.

Saints vs Chiefs pick: Under 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chris R. Farley

Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

@FarleyBets