HomeNFLNFL PredictionsNew Orleans Saints vs Green Bay Packers Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks

New Orleans Saints vs Green Bay Packers Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks for Monday, 12/23/24

Updated: 8:52 AM ET Dec 23, 2024

Lambeau FieldESPN

5-9

Saints

8:15 PM ETYesterday

10-4

Packers

Vote on who will cover the spread!

Saints vs Packers Pickswise Expert Predictions

NFL

Point Spread Pick

GB Packers -14.0(-115)NO Saints @ GB Packers

Reasoning

Less inspiring than the Thursday and Sunday night primetime games, Monday Night Football features one of the best programs in the NFC against one of the most disappointing. Despite a lost season, however, the Saints have a real chance at covering this massive line. For starters, we finally saw what Spencer Rattler could offer as New Orleans’ future quarterback. The rookie had a great showing on Sunday. Replacing fellow backup Jake Haener, Rattler started in the second half and immediately took his team down the field for a touchdown. In fact, all 4 of the Saints’ second-half drives turned into scores (2 field goals, 2 touchdowns), and their defense followed suit, limiting the Commanders to just 3 points in the final 2 quarters. In what would have ultimately destroyed many survivor contestants around the betting world, Rattler even had a chance to win the game when the Saints went for a 2-point conversion following the final play, which was a picture-perfect pass from Rattler to tight-end Foster Moreau. Rattler wasn’t perfect, by any means (10-21, 135 yards, 1 touchdown), but he avoided making mistakes and avoided Washington’s pass rush (unlike Haener, who was sacked 3 times). He also instilled hope in a downtrodden roster that looked like they didn’t want to be there in the first half. We like that heading into MNF.

But there’s also a reason why Green Bay is so heavily favored. The Packers will return to Lambeau Field after a dominant statement win over the Seattle Seahawks, who came into the matchup with a 4-game winning streak. But even in front of their fans, the Seahawks couldn’t stop Matt LaFleur’s masterful game plan. Seattle’s defense looked very formidable in the weeks prior, but instead it was Jordan Love and the Packers’ offense who looked elite, outgaining the Seahawks 21-14 in first downs and 369 to 208 in total yards. Green Bay is clicking at the right time and they’re deadly at home, a venue where they’ve only lost to the Lions and Vikings in close games this season. We considered taking the Saints, but a rookie quarterback on the road in what’s forecasted to be a cold, snowy day in Wisconsin is not a situation where many like-throwers can thrive. The market is stating a very clear position and we’re inclined to take the bait.

Saints vs Packers prediction: Packers -14 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chris R. Farley

NFL

Game Totals Pick

Under 42.5(-110)NO Saints @ GB Packers

Reasoning

Did we mention it’s going to be snowy and cold in Green Bay on Monday night? Just making sure. Clearly the market is aware of the conditions. The Week 16 MNF game lists one of the lowest totals of the week and we’re not convinced that it’s low enough. Windy and snowy and cold means that both passing games will likely struggle, an environmental factor that we’ve seen time and time again in past NFL games. And despite his exceptional efforts last week in a loss, Spencer Rattler hasn’t had much experience in these conditions, since he played college ball at South Carolina and Oklahoma in arguably the 2 “warmest” conferences in the country. The good news is that, like their opponent, the Saints have a pretty good rushing attack, one that averages 4.4 yards per carry (12th) and gains 124.4 yards per game (11th). Of course, the same can be said for the Packers, who average 4.7 per carry (7th) and 144.4 per game (6th).

We all know Matt LaFleur loves to deploy creative running schemes. Even in 2 contests without Jordan Love this season, LaFleur let the ground-game take over and turned it into 2 wins. Green Bay is also 2nd in the NFL in rush-play percentage (51.19%). The Saints could be without Alvin Kamara, who suffered a groin injury, but we’re not concerned about that, either. Kendre Miller did well in his absence, carrying the ball 9 times for 46 yards in just 3 drives last Sunday. Unless the Saints don’t show up on Monday and the Packers score at will, it will be hard for either team to reach 20 points in the conditions.

Saints vs Packers prediction: Under 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.5.

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Chris R. Farley

Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

@FarleyBets

Same Game Parlay

Point Spread

GB Packers -14.0

Game Totals

Under 42.5

Player Interceptions

J. Love (GB) - Over 0.5 INTs

Reasoning

Green Bay Packers -14 over New Orleans Saints (-110)

While Saints rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler had a great showing last Sunday against the Commanders, there’s a reason why Green Bay is heavily favored in this game. The Packers are back at Lambeau Field after a dominant victory over the Seahawks in Seattle. But even in front of their home fans, the Seahawks couldn’t stop Matt LaFleur’s masterful game plan, as Jordan Love and the Packers’ offense outgained the Seahawks 21-14 in first downs and 369 to 208 in total yards. It’s clear that Green Bay is clicking at the right time and this Packers team is deadly at Lambeau, a home field where they’ve only lost to the Lions and Vikings this season.

It’s easy to see why some professional bettors would take the Saints as massive underdogs in this spot, but we have a hard time backing a rookie quarterback on the road in what’s expected to be a blisteringly cold day in Wisconsin. At the end of the day, the market is taking a very clear position on this game and we’re inclined to agree.

Under 42.5 (-105)

With conditions expected to be pretty unpleasant on Monday, it’s hard not to look at the Under in this one. Cold and windy conditions typically means that both passing games will likely struggle, which is something that we’ve seen time and again in NFL games in recent years. And despite his strong performance down the stretch in last week’s loss, Rattler hasn’t had much experience in these conditions, especially since he played college football at South Carolina and Oklahoma. It can be expected that New Orleans will rely on its ground attack in this game, and Green Bay should do the same. Green Bay is a top 10 rushing offense in yards per carry and yards per game, plus the Packers are also 2nd in the NFL in rush-play percentage (51.19%). This should be a fast-moving game with plenty of running clock, so let’s back the Under while it’s still at this number.

Jordan Love to throw an interception (-105)

To close out our Same Game Parlay for Monday’s NFC showdown, let’s back Jordan Love to throw an interception. The Packers quarterback has been extremely efficient in recent weeks, and many have pointed out that the change in offensive system from a pass-happy scheme to a more run-focused team has done wonders for the young QB. Love is undeniably very talented, but he certainly has a bit of Brett Favre in his game and that gunslinger mentality has continued into this season. In fact, Love threw a whopping 11 interceptions over his first 8 starts, with some of his mistakes proving to be costly against the likes of Minnesota and Detroit.

Even though Love has played very clean football over the last month (66.25% completion and 0 interceptions), I have my doubts that he can play mistake-free for much longer. We know that Love can make all of the throws, but he also has shown a tendency to be careless with the football. With that in mind, it’s hard to ignore this prop while it’s still priced at close to even money and gives our Packers vs Saints Same Game Parlay such a nice boost.

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Caleb Wilfinger

Pickswise Expert Prop Picks

Player Rushing Yards Pick

S. Rattler (NO) - Over 18.5 rush yds(-110)

Reasoning

Rattler gets the start again after Jake Haener botched his first (and possibly only) career start in Week 15. Rattler came in and went 10/21 for 135 yards and a touchdown in relief, which earned him the start on MNF. His 3 previous starts were underwhelming with a few glimpses of interesting quarterback play. Rattler hit this number with ease in 2/3 of his starts and given the conditions along with the spread, I can see Rattler having plenty of opportunities to pick up yards on the ground. The Packers are bottom 14 in quarterback rush attempts per game and their pressure rate is top 14 in the league, despite blitzing the 5th-fewest in the league; the point being that Rattler should be under pressure from just the front 4 Monday night and likely playing from behind will force him out of the pocket to pick up first downs. Despite only starting 3 games, he’s been sacked 14 times.

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Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

M. Valdes-Scantling (NO) to score a TD(+475)

Reasoning

Let’s get right into our longshot TD scorer pick of the night — Marquez Valdes-Scantling to score a touchdown at +475 odds. He’s failed to practice all week due to a chest injury and added an illness tag towards the end of the week. Not encouraging signs, but we’ll take our chances at this ridiculous price.

The Saints are 2-touchdown dogs in Lambeau Field led by a rookie quarterback. But Rattler led a ferocious comeback last week versus the Commanders which included 2 touchdown drives in the 2nd half when he came in for Jake Haener. He even nearly won the game for the Saints, but a failed 2-point conversion was the difference. That said, we’re getting great prices across the board for Saints skill players. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has reeled in 8 20-yard receptions over the last 5 weeks, including a 39-yard catch passed by Rattler on the first drive of the 2nd half. In what projects to be a negative game script, I’d expect Rattler to take multiple shots towards Marquez Valdes-Scantling in this one if the WR is able to suit up.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

C. Watson (GB) to score a TD(+200)

Reasoning

We’re targeting another deep-ball threat on Monday Night Football in wide receiver Christian Watson at +200 odds. It’s been over 2 months since Watson last found the end zone, but the Saints’ bottom 5 DADOT has Watson as an intriguing target. He’s caught 9 20+ yard receptions over the last 5 weeks and leads the Packers in air yards this season while being just behind Bo Melton in aDOT. The Packers are projected to dominate this game and I expect Watson to contribute.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Featured In

SGP

8:15 PM ETYesterday

Saints vs Packers MNF Same Game Parlay

Top Trends

Game Totals

5 of the Saints' last 7 games (71%) have stayed Under the total.

Money Line

The Packers have won 6 of their last 8 games at home.

Point Spread

The Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.

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