HomeNFLNFL PredictionsNew Orleans Saints vs Green Bay Packers Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks

New Orleans Saints vs Green Bay Packers Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks for Monday, 12/23/24

Updated: 7:07 AM ET Dec 19, 2024

Lambeau FieldESPN

Saints

8:15 PM ETMon Dec 23

Packers

WWLWL	Last 5	WWWLW
5-9	Record	10-4
6-8-0	ATS Record	8-6-0
7-7	O/U Record	6-8

Vote on who will cover the spread!

Saints vs Packers Pickswise Expert Predictions

NFL

Point Spread Pick

GB Packers -14.0(-115)NO Saints @ GB Packers

Reasoning

Less inspiring than the Thursday and Sunday night primetime games, Monday Night Football features one of the best programs in the NFC against one of the most disappointing. Despite a lost season, however, the Saints have a real chance at covering this massive line. For starters, we finally saw what Spencer Rattler could offer as New Orleans’ future quarterback. The rookie had a great showing on Sunday. Replacing fellow backup Jake Haener, Rattler started in the second half and immediately took his team down the field for a touchdown. In fact, all 4 of the Saints’ second-half drives turned into scores (2 field goals, 2 touchdowns), and their defense followed suit, limiting the Commanders to just 3 points in the final 2 quarters. In what would have ultimately destroyed many survivor contestants around the betting world, Rattler even had a chance to win the game when the Saints went for a 2-point conversion following the final play, which was a picture-perfect pass from Rattler to tight-end Foster Moreau. Rattler wasn’t perfect, by any means (10-21, 135 yards, 1 touchdown), but he avoided making mistakes and avoided Washington’s pass rush (unlike Haener, who was sacked 3 times). He also instilled hope in a downtrodden roster that looked like they didn’t want to be there in the first half. We like that heading into MNF.

But there’s also a reason why Green Bay is so heavily favored. The Packers will return to Lambeau Field after a dominant statement win over the Seattle Seahawks, who came into the matchup with a 4-game winning streak. But even in front of their fans, the Seahawks couldn’t stop Matt LaFleur’s masterful game plan. Seattle’s defense looked very formidable in the weeks prior, but instead it was Jordan Love and the Packers’ offense who looked elite, outgaining the Seahawks 21-14 in first downs and 369 to 208 in total yards. Green Bay is clicking at the right time and they’re deadly at home, a venue where they’ve only lost to the Lions and Vikings in close games this season. We considered taking the Saints, but a rookie quarterback on the road in what’s forecasted to be a cold, snowy day in Wisconsin is not a situation where many like-throwers can thrive. The market is stating a very clear position and we’re inclined to take the bait.

Saints vs Packers prediction: Packers -14 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chris R. Farley

NFL

Game Totals Pick

Under 42.5(-110)NO Saints @ GB Packers

Reasoning

Did we mention it’s going to be snowy and cold in Green Bay on Monday night? Just making sure. Clearly the market is aware of the conditions. The Week 16 MNF game lists one of the lowest totals of the week and we’re not convinced that it’s low enough. Windy and snowy and cold means that both passing games will likely struggle, an environmental factor that we’ve seen time and time again in past NFL games. And despite his exceptional efforts last week in a loss, Spencer Rattler hasn’t had much experience in these conditions, since he played college ball at South Carolina and Oklahoma in arguably the 2 “warmest” conferences in the country. The good news is that, like their opponent, the Saints have a pretty good rushing attack, one that averages 4.4 yards per carry (12th) and gains 124.4 yards per game (11th). Of course, the same can be said for the Packers, who average 4.7 per carry (7th) and 144.4 per game (6th).

We all know Matt LaFleur loves to deploy creative running schemes. Even in 2 contests without Jordan Love this season, LaFleur let the ground-game take over and turned it into 2 wins. Green Bay is also 2nd in the NFL in rush-play percentage (51.19%). The Saints could be without Alvin Kamara, who suffered a groin injury, but we’re not concerned about that, either. Kendre Miller did well in his absence, carrying the ball 9 times for 46 yards in just 3 drives last Sunday. Unless the Saints don’t show up on Monday and the Packers score at will, it will be hard for either team to reach 20 points in the conditions.

Saints vs Packers prediction: Under 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.5.

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Chris R. Farley

Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

@FarleyBets

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