New England Patriots vs New York Jets Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/19/24

Updated: 9:52 AM ET Sep 19, 2024

MetLife StadiumAmazon Prime

Patriots

8:15 PM ETToday

Jets

WLLWL	Last 5	WLWLW
1-1	Record	1-1
1-0-1	ATS Record	1-1-0
1-1	O/U Record	1-1

Best Bets

NFL

Point Spread PickBest Bet

NE Patriots +6.5(-110)NE Patriots @ NY Jets

Reasoning

It hasn’t been easy sledding for the 1-1 Jets. After an early humbling by San Francisco in Week 1, Aaron Rodgers and his new team had more pressure than most programs heading into Week 2. Two straight road games to start the season was no easy feat, but Rodgers and company eventually pulled out a 24-17 win over the Titans. While the win was nice, it wasn’t very pretty. Tennessee outgained New York (300-265) in total yards, and if it wasn’t for 2 untimely turnovers by the home team, the Jets might be heading into Thursday Night Football with a 0-2 record. Regardless, the Jets managed to avoid disaster and now they finally get a home game, although we don’t love the matchup for them. As a result, we’re going with New England as our Patriots vs Jets best bet.

Aaron Rodgers has looked just “okay” in two starts (343 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) and their offense as a whole looks like a work in progress. This gives us pause when we consider their opponent. The whole world knows what New England’s defense did to Cincinnati in Week 1, forcing a massive upset win and booting survivor contestants all over the world, but in Week 2 they were equally impressive in certain spots. After Geno Smith and the Seahawks got off to a nice start (252 yards and 17 points) in the first half, the Patriots held the visitors to only 106 yards and 3 points in the third and fourth quarters.

Their offense, despite projections that it could be the worst in the league, is also holding its own. Jacoby Brissett continues to act as a stabilizing energy for his team. He can use his legs to gain crucial first downs, he hasn’t turned it over, and he’s been productive in the clutch. Even better for New England, an effective backfield led by Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson has produced over 170 yards on the ground in 2 straight weeks.

The Patriots know how to play ball control and make life difficult for their opponents. The total is very low in his matchup, which always favors the underdog, and this is too many points for a program with an offense that simply hasn’t shown us much. It’s also Rodgers’ first AFC East rivalry game, a situation where we’d rather fade the former MVP. For our Patriots vs Jets prediction, we’re taking the road team.

Patriots vs Jets prediction: Patriots +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.5.

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Chris R. Farley

Patriots vs Jets Pickswise Expert Predictions

NFL

Game Totals Pick

Under 37.5(-110)NE Patriots @ NY Jets

Reasoning

The total has “classic AFC East defensive battle” written all over it, and who are we to argue? Somehow, the Jets pulled off a win in Tennessee last week but it was a tough watch. The Titans’ defense barely rattled Aaron Rodgers (2 sacks, 3 QB hits), yet the former MVP only eked out a 60% (18/30) completion rate, just enough to keep New York afloat. The real issue for the Jets is their defense.

Lauded by many as arguably the best unit entering 2024, New York’s resistance has been mediocre through 2 weeks. San Francisco slashed and dashed the Jets for 180 rushing yards in Week 1, and Tennessee followed up with 130 of their own. The talented running back group of the Patriots should be able to take advantage, which is a good thing for another under. Through 2 weeks, New England is top-5 in the NFL in rush play percentage (58%) and rushing yards per game (177.5). Both programs would prefer to run the ball and enforce hard-hitting defense on their opponents, which should make for a dynamic contest of ball control (sense the sarcasm) throughout this divisional battle. Since we’re still getting under the key number of “37,” we’ll favor another low-scoring game. Our Patriots vs Jets pick is to go with the Under.

Patriots vs Jets prediction: Under 37.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chris R. Farley

Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

@FarleyBets

Same Game Parlay

Alternate Point Spread

NE Patriots +6.5

Player Rushing Yards

R. Stevenson (NE) 100+ rush yds

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

R. Stevenson (NE) to score a TD

Reasoning

New England Patriots +3.5 alternate spread over New York Jets (+130)

Rodgers has been decent so far and the Jets have won a game. In other words, things are going better than they went at the start of last season – which, of course, is not saying a lot. Rodgers has at least managed to remain mostly upright through 2 outings, but he hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. Following a blowout loss to the Niners, the Jets just barely got past a Tennessee Titans team that basically handed them a win thanks to some laughable turnovers by Will Levis. Meanwhile, New England has impressed relative to its low expectations. The Patriots upset the Cincinnati Bengals (who then almost beat the Kansas City Chiefs) and pushed the Seattle Seahawks to overtime (lost 23-20). In what figures to be a somewhat low-scoring affair, 3.5 points could go a long way. Give me the Pats to keep it within a field goal.

Rhamondre Stevenson to record 100+ rushing yards (+300)

Stevenson has been stellar for the Patriots through 2 games and there is no reason to expect anything different on Thursday night. After all, New England is simply a run-first team – and that isn’t going to change with Jacoby Brissett under center (or Drake Maye, for that matter). Brissett has been serviceable so far as the Pats’ QB1, but he is without question a game manager. New head coach Jerod Mayo is not going to have Brissett sling it around 40 times per game. Instead, they will continue to hand the ball to Stevenson. Through 2 weeks this team ranks top 5 in percentage of rushing plays (58 percent) and rushing yards per contest (177.5).

Rhamondre Stevenson to score a touchdown (+110)

How good has Stevenson been so far? Well, the 26-year-old has turned 25 and 21 carries into 120 and 81 rushing yards, respectively. He scored a touchdown in each of the first 2 games. Stevenson now goes up against a New York defense that is surrendering 155 rushing yards per game (9th-most in the league) on 4.7 yards per carry. The Jets have given up 3 TDs on the ground compared to just 1 through the air. All signs point to Stevenson running wild on Thursday, with at least 1 touchdown included.

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Ricky Dimon

Pickswise Expert Prop Picks

Player Rushing and Receiving Yards Pick

R. Stevenson (NE) - Over 83.5 rush+rec yds(-114)

Reasoning

The Jets have had issues through 2 weeks defending running backs and CJ Mosley potentially being a scratch would be huge for this struggling New York defense. Mosley left the game in the first half against the Titans last Sunday and didn’t return or practice all week; he is 50/50 to play tonight. Stevenson is the clear RB1 in New England and even though Antonio Gibson broke off on a big run last week, he’s still just playing spot duty in this offense. Rhamondre logged 78% and 72% of snaps through 2 weeks and his 25.5 touches per game are second only to Saquon Barkley so far. He should be in for another big workload on TNF and the Jets are allowing 4.7 yards per rush to opposing teams.

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Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

R. Stevenson (NE) to score a TD(+135)

Reasoning

Picking touchdown scorers in a game with a total of 38.5 can be difficult, but that means we should be able to find solid value. The only player not being offered at plus money to score is Jets running back Breece Hall. So, we’ll gladly pivot to Rhamondre Stevenson — the Patriots running back who has a total of 51 touches through two weeks, which is the 2nd-most in the league behind Saquon Barkley.

Stevenson has punched in 2 touchdowns to start the year — both coming within the 5-yard line. The Jets’ loaded defense on paper is coming off allowing 300 total yards to an underwhelming Tennessee Titans offense. If quarterback Jacoby Brissett can continue to play turnover-free football, Stevenson and the Patriots should have their way with getting down the field.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

G. Wilson (NYJ) to score a TD(+160)

Reasoning

The duo of Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson was in the conversation of tops in the league coming into 2024. It hasn’t been sunshine and rainbows for the duo at the Jets to start the season, but Thursday Night Football could be their coming-out party. Wilson was shadowed by Charvarius Ward in Week 1 and L’Jarius Sneed in Week 2 — 2 daunting matchups. Week 3 may not get easier against Christian Gonzalez, a star cornerback in the making, but at +150 and a back shoulder fade in the end zone waiting to happen, this is a spot I want my money down on.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)

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SGP

8:15 PM ETToday

Patriots vs Jets TNF Same Game Parlay

Model projections coming soon

Top Trends

Money Line

The Patriots have won 10 of their last 12 games at the Jets.

Game Totals

The Jets' last 4 games against the Patriots have stayed under the total.

Point Spread

The Jets have failed to cover in 3 straight games as a home favorite.

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