New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/24/24
LWLWL | Last 5 | LLLWW |
3-8 | Record | 4-6 |
4-6-1 | ATS Record | 4-6-0 |
6-5 | O/U Record | 4-6 |
Patriots vs Dolphins Pickswise Expert Predictions
It will be a showdown in the AFC East when the Miami Dolphins host the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon. Miami is just 4-6, but that leaves it only 1.5 games out of a playoff spot and Tua Tagovailoa is healthy — at least for now. In other words, the season is far from over in South Beach. It is, however, pretty much must-win mode for the Dolphins — a mode that has served them well so far this month. Once 2-6, they have reeled off consecutive victories over the Los Angeles Rams and Las Vegas Raiders. They won those games by a combined 23 points, so it’s clear the Fins have no trouble rising to the occasion when the pressure is on. In 4 appearances since his return from a concussion, Tagovailoa has tossed 7 touchdown passes compared to just 1 interception.
The Patriots have some future promise with rookie quarterback Drake Maye playing well, but the present is a much different story. Maye has little help around him, so the team as a whole is less than impressive. It is 3-8 overall, and since Week 1 its only wins have come over the New York Jets and Chicago Bears. New England hasn’t produced a 100-yard rusher since Week 1 and Maye has led the team in rushing in 3 of the last 6 contests. If they want to have any chance this weekend, the Pats will have to find a running back — because Miami boasts a stellar pass defense. The Dolphins have easily taken care of 2 straight opponents that are somewhere between mediocre and bad. That is exactly what they should do again on Sunday, winning by at least a touchdown.
Patriots vs Dolphins prediction: Dolphins -7 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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Pickswise Expert Prop Picks
This looks like a great bet at plus-money odds. Maye is already 34.5 elsewhere and I like it there too. New England enters this game as 7.5-point underdogs which should mean that they have to pass throughout all 4 quarters. When Drake Maye starts and New England loses the game, he has thrown for an average of 37.5 passes a game. This Miami team is perfect to target because they are capable of deep balls that can help our game script but also help New England get the ball back and not get pounded on time of possession. Miami has allowed the last 4 quarterbacks they have faced to smash this number against them. I truly think this number should be 35.5 so getting 2 attempts lower at plus-money odds looks to hold great value.
The Under is 4-1 in the Dolphins' last 5 matchups against divisional opponents.
The Dolphins have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against the Patriots.
The Dolphins have won 9 of their last 11 home matchups against the Patriots.
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