New England Patriots

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/22/24

Highmark StadiumCBS
Patriots
3-11
Patriots
Today
Bills
11-3
Bills

Vote on who will cover the spread!

Buffalo Bills

Patriots vs Bills Pickswise Expert Predictions

New England Patriots
NFL
Buffalo Bills
Point Spread Pick
BUF Bills -14.0(-110)NE Patriots @ BUF Bills

The Buffalo Bills will be trying to stay within striking distance of the #1 seed in the AFC when they host the AFC East rival New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon. Buffalo is coming off 1 of its 2 biggest wins of the season — a 48-42 road upset of the NFC favorite Detroit Lions (the other being a 30-21 defeat of the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11). The Chiefs are 13-1, but the Bills are not too far behind at 11-3 and — with an 8-1 record in the last 9 games — are the hottest team in the NFL. In fact, Josh Allen and company are favored to win the Super Bowl (+400). What’s more of a lock is Allen for MVP. Over the last 3 outings, the star quarterback has tossed 7 touchdown passes without getting picked off a single time while rushing for 6 additional TDs. He has scored at least once on the ground in 5 consecutive contests.

I’m generally not a fan of giving 2 touchdowns in any situation, but this is an exception to that rule. Buffalo has scored at least 30 points in 8 straight games and New England is terrible. It’s hard to see the Patriots doing enough offensively to keep this game within 14 points. They are 3-11 and just lost to a much less formidable foe in the Arizona Cardinals by 13 points last weekend. New England has lost by at least 16 points 5 times already this season — all of those to opponents much worse than Buffalo. Drake Maye may be a future bright spot, but has been intercepted at least once in 6 consecutive games and during this stretch has as many picks as TDs (7 apiece). Give me the Bills to win big.

Patriots vs Bills prediction: Bills -14 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Ricky Dimon
New England Patriots
NFL
Buffalo Bills
Game Totals Pick
Under 46.5(-110)NE Patriots @ BUF Bills

New England’s offense hasn’t been terrible under Maye (the Patriots have scored at least 15 points every time he has taken the field), but it also hasn’t been any kind of juggernaut. The Pats have reached the 20-point mark just 5 times this season. They haven’t had a 100-yard rusher since Week 1 and haven’t had a 100-yard receiver since Week 2. It’s also worth noting that New England is a bit banged up on the offensive line, as 2 starters are questionable. The Bills will undoubtedly score plenty of points this weekend, but a positive game script for them should lead to a lot of rushing attempts. Assuming this turns into a beatdown quickly, Buffalo can milk the clock. Moreover, it’s going to be absolutely freezing in Buffalo on Sunday. I would tread lightly on an under play whenever Allen and the Bills are involved, but it’s a slight lean toward the Under for me.

Patriots vs Bills prediction: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Ricky Dimon
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Ricky Dimon

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Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports -- just about any and all you can think of! -- and coaching tennis in Atlanta, GA. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me. For Ricky Dimon media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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Pickswise Expert Prop Picks

New England Patriots
Player Pass Completions Pick
D. Maye (NE) - Over 19.5 pass comps(-130)

This one is unlikely to be pretty. With that being said, I absolutely think this is the right play. Buffalo should lay a whooping on New England on Sunday. The Pats will therefore be forced to pass plenty in this one, especially later in the game. I donā€™t have fear of Maye getting pulled due to a blowout because heā€™s such a young guy and could use as much experience as possible. Maye has 20+ completions in 6 of 8 complete games he has played in. Buffalo is a nice target here as they allow the 6th-most completions among teams in the NFL. Weather shouldnā€™t be a factor here and the game script should be favorable. Just keep finding the open man underneath Drake!

Buffalo Bills
Josh Gayle (ThatGuyBets)
Top Trends
Money Line

The Bills have won 6 games straight at home, while the Patriots have lost on 7 of their last 9 road trips.

Point Spread

The Bills are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games.

Game Totals

The Patriots' last 3 road games at the Bills have gone Over the total.

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Sign up for a new account with Underdog Fantasy

Make your first deposit up to $1,000

Get a 100% deposit match, and new users can get up to $1,000 in bonus cash on their first deposit

Must be 21+ to play. Terms & conditions apply

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