HomeNFLNFL PredictionsMinnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions Prediction, Odds and SNF Picks

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions Prediction, Odds and SNF Picks for Tomorrow, 01/05/25

Updated: 10:19 AM ET Jan 02, 2025

Ford FieldNBC

Vikings

8:20 PM ETTomorrow

Lions

WWWWW	Last 5	WWLWW
14-2	Record	14-2
11-4-1	ATS Record	11-5-0
7-9	O/U Record	9-7

Vote on who will cover the spread!

Vikings vs Lions Pickswise Expert Predictions

NFL

Point Spread Pick

DET Lions -2.5(-115)MIN Vikings @ DET Lions

Reasoning

By now there’s not much we can tell you about these 2 teams that you don’t already know. The fact that the NFC North features 2 programs with 13+ wins, both vying for the NFC’s #1 seed, and that they get to battle on Sunday night in the final matchup of the season is beyond perfect for NFL fans. Even better, it’s the first time in NFL history that two 13+ win teams face off in the regular season. Get your popcorn ready! While it’s inarguable is that both programs are elite and we’d be remiss not to revisit their first meeting. In Week 7, Detroit traveled to US Bank Stadium and left the victor, but it was a very even contest. Just look at some of the box-score stats:

Total yards– MIN: 383, DET: 391
First downs– MIN: 16, DET: 19
Yards per play– MIN: 7.4, DET: 7.0
Passing yards– MIN: 244, DET: 247
Rushing yards– MIN: 139, DET: 144
Penalties– MIN: 8 for 59 yards, DET: 8 for 49 yards
Turnovers– MIN: 1, DET: 1
Time of possession: MIN: 30:57, DET: 29:03

The reality is, Detroit simply managed the game better at the end of regulation and the Minnesota defense couldn’t stop them. Jared Goff and company conducted a masterful drive, 8 plays, 44 yards with just over 2 minutes left, running the clock down to 0:15 when Jake Bates hit what would become the game-winning field goal. Detroit also stopped Minnesota in their prior drive, forcing a three-and-out to give their offense a chance to win the game. Goff and company followed suit.

If we were to glean one clear difference from these two teams, it’s that the Lions have been in these big-game situations more than the Vikings have. That experience matters in these pivotal moments. Sam Darnold has had an amazing year, MVP-worthy by many standards (4,153 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 12 interceptions), but he hasn’t been in as many of these situations as his opposition. Jared Goff took the Rams to the Super Bowl before he ever got traded to Detroit, and the Lions held a 24-7 first-half lead against the 49ers in last year’s NFC Championship game. They probably should have won. In any case, big-game experience matters, and at this juncture, the Lions have been one of the NFL’s premier Super Bowl contenders for 2 seasons and running. They’re also at home, where they can utilize the energy of their fans for an extra edge when the going gets tough. This is a tough handicap no matter what way we look at it, the spread is very accurate, but we just simply cannot pick against the Lions at home in these scenarios.

Vikings vs Lions prediction: Lions -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chris R. Farley

NFL

Game Totals Pick

Under 56.0(-110)MIN Vikings @ DET Lions

Reasoning

Even though this is one of the biggest regular-season games in NFL history, evidently oddsmakers don’t think nerves are a part of these pivotal showdowns. A 56-point total (it was up to 57 at some sportsbooks) is wildly high, and it’s also hard to refute. The Lions’ offensive ranks are akin to the “greatest show on turf” – 1st in points per game, 2nd in yards per game, 2nd in points per play, 4th on third downs, 5th on fourth downs and 1st in touchdowns per game. No significant statistic is below a top-10 rating in their running or passing attack, and everyone knows that Detroit has one of the best offensive lines in the league.

On the other side, the Vikings are similar, but not quite as elite. The Vikings are 9th in points per game, 12th in yards per game, 8th in points per play, 11th on third downs, 13th on fourth downs and 9th in touchdowns per game. Their passing game is clearly better than their efforts on the ground (the Vikings only average 4 yards per carry, ranked 29th), but we doubt that would matter much anyway. Detroit is one of the best defenses against the run all season (3rd in opponent rush yards per game). Regardless of what the full-season stats say, Darnold and the Vikings have evolved and improved consistently over the past 4 months. In their past 5 matchups, all against above-average defenses, the Vikings averaged 30 points per game.

Everything suggests that a ton of points are incoming, again, but we’re hitting the pause button. A number like 56 suggests that both offenses will have little to no issue constantly scoring, a conclusion we cannot agree with. The Lions’ offense is the most consistent unit on the field, but the Vikings’ defense has been relentless and aggressive and, unlike the Lions, they’re healthy heading into Sunday night. Add the inevitable pressure that comes with this massive game and both defenses will have an inherent advantage. On top of that, Minnesota games have only eclipsed this number 4 times this season. The Lions have eclipsed this number 7 times, but they were all against lackluster defenses at not-so-pivotal moments. With such high stakes on the line, we’ll go contrarian.

Vikings vs Lions prediction: Under 56 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chris R. Farley

Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

@FarleyBets

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Game Totals

Each of the last 6 matchups between the Vikings and the Lions have gone Over the total.

Point Spread

The Vikings are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.

Money Line

The Vikings have won 4 straight road games.

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