Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 11/24/24

The Chicago Bears host the Minnesota Vikings this Sunday in a pivotal NFC North matchup for both teams. The Bears fired their OC Shane Waldron before their Week 11 matchup against the Green Bay Packers last weekend, and while the offense did improve, Green Bay walked away with a 20-19 victory due to a block field goal at the end of regulation. The Bears cannot get out of their own way, as they had the chance to run another play before attempting to kick a game-winning FG, but head coach Matt Eberflus elected to kick on 2nd down instead. Now, they’re facing a must-win situation against Minnesota, or they may want to start looking toward the NFL Draft.

Meanwhile, Minnesota has been one of the bigger surprises this NFL season, and they picked up their third straight victory last weekend on the road against the Tennessee Titans 23-13. Although it was an ugly victory, it still counts in the win column, and the Vikings are just one game behind the Detroit Lions in the NFC North, while the Packers sit one game behind Minnesota. QB Sam Darnold has been effective in Kevin O’Connell’s offense, and Brian Flores has this Minnesota defense playing extremely well. Minnesota has only been exposed by veteran QBs this season, but they are now playing in their third straight game on the road so they may start to show some fatigue.

As much as the Bears have fallen off after a 4-2 start, this game could be a turning point in their season. A win keeps them in the playoff hunt, and they’ve played quite well at Soldier Field this season. Chicago is 4-2 in front of their home fans and 5-1 against the spread, while the Vikings are 3-2 against the number playing on the road. However, they’re 1-5 ATS in their last six games against NFC North opponents, so I’ll take Chicago with the points and expect Sunday’s game to come down to field goal on either side.

Vikings vs Bears prediction: Bears +3.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to +3 (-125).

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My main Vikings vs Bears prediction for Sunday is for this NFC North matchup to be an absolute slugfest. While I did like what I saw from Chicago’s newly appointed playcaller Thomas Brown last weekend against the Packers, going up against a Brian Flores-led defense will be a different animal. Minnesota is blitzing opposing QBs at a 37.7% clip (1st in the NFL) this season, and the Vikings have caused fits for young quarterbacks. Minnesota has faced Daniel Jones, Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love, Mac Jones and Will Levis this season, and only Love and the Packers had success in a 31-29 defeat. However, the other 5 QBs managed to lead their offense to an average of just 10.5 points, and even if you had the Packers’ high-scoring game, that average only goes up to 13.1 points.

On the flip side, the Bears defense has been one of the lone bright spots for this Chicago team. In their six home games, the Bears have allowed an average of 16.7 points per contest, and no team has scored more than 20 points at Soldier Field. Additionally, Minnesota’s offense has sputtered in recent weeks after their hot start, and they’ve averaged just 21.0 points per game since their bye week. Chicago has done a great job containing opposing QBs at home this season, as only Jordan Love has thrown for more than 250 yards while facing the Bears in Chicago.

The Bears allow just 18.7 points per game (7th in the NFL), while the Vikings give up 17.0 (4th in the NFL). Chicago has seen each of their last four games finish Under while Minnesota’s last three contests finished Under as well. Additionally, the previous five meetings at Soldier Field between these squads finished Under the total. I expect all three trends to continue this Sunday and will back the Under in this NFC North rock fight. 

Vikings vs Bears prediction: Under 39.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to 38.5 (-110).

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