Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers Prediction, Odds and TNF Picks for Tomorrow, 11/28/24
LLWWW | Last 5 | WWLWW |
| 5-6 | Record | 8-3 |
| 5-6-0 | ATS Record | 5-6-0 |
| 5-6 | O/U Record | 5-6 |
Dolphins vs Packers Pickswise Expert Predictions
Two teams who are feeling better than they have all season will clash on Thanksgiving Thursday Night Football in what should be a classic inter-conference battle. The Miami Dolphins are red-hot off 3 straight impressive wins and have reinvigorated their chances at a playoff berth. It’s somewhat predictable that their offense would see immediate improvement upon Tua Tagovailoa’s return. In 5 games back, Miami has averaged over 30 ppg, and they’ve done so against some very formidable defenses (Cardinals, Bills, Rams, Raiders and Patriots). They’ve been impressive on defense, too. Over their last 3 games, they’re allowing just 16.3 ppg, but it’s worth noting who their competition was in those battles (Rams, Raiders and Patriots). In truth, the Rams were the only competent offense they’ve held back this season. Against better programs (Bills, Seahawks and Cardinals) they’re allowing 28 ppg, so we’re not confident that their defense will experience the same success at Lambeau Field.
The Packers are no slouches either, off another seminal win against the 49ers and now victors in 6 of their last 7 contests. Of course, their defense didn’t face the same challenge it usually would against last year’s NFC Champions, since Brock Purdy was absent in Week 12, but it was a dominant performance by a team that was expected to throttle the Niners in that situation. Perhaps the most promising result was Josh Jacobs and Green Bay’s consistently elite ground attack, which put up 169 yards on a stingy San Francisco defense. As a group, they average 151.6 rushing yards per game (3rd).
The narrative about Tua Tagovailoa not playing well in cold weather is tired and boring at this point. Sure, the transition from sunny South Florida to the frozen tundra of Green Bay won’t be easy, and it will be cold on TNF (a low of 20 degrees with 12+ mph winds). But the Dolphins believe in themselves right now. In sports, that’s half the battle, and Tagovailoa is dead set on changing perspectives about his cold weather failures. Both teams are playing very well, but the Packers’ subpar pass defense (7.2 yards/pass allowed, 18th) should give Tua and company plenty of opportunities to stay alive.
Dolphins vs Packers prediction: Dolphins +3.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.
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The Packers have covered the spread in their last 7 home games against teams with losing records.
The Packers have won their last 6 home games against teams with worse records.
The Over is 4-1 in the Dolphins' last 5 games.
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