Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 11/03/24

It’s no secret that Josh Allen has terrorized the Miami Dolphins over the course of his career, particularly in recent seasons. In fact, the longtime Bills quarterback has a passer rating of 110.0 with over 3,500 yards passing, to go along with 34 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions in 13 career games against the Dolphins. Back in Week 2, it was a completely dominant performance from Buffalo in a 31-10 victory in Miami, and while I’m not expecting another 3-touchdown victory in this one, the Bills should be able to cover this number at home.

While Buffalo’s offense hit a brief snag earlier this season, Joe Brady and this group have largely been excellent at home this season, especially when facing an inferior opponent. Even without Stefon Diggs, this is an extremely balanced and efficient unit in all phases of the game, as the Bills rank 5th in EPA per rush and 3rd in EPA per dropback on the year. Rookie wideout Keon Coleman appears to be making a leap, Khalil Shakir has emerged and the acquisition of Amari Cooper should give defenses plenty to think about. Miami’s defense has taken a step back this season, and James Cook and the Buffalo run game should look to replicate the Week 2 performance that saw them completely take Miami out of the game by halftime. As for the Miami offense, Tua Tagovailoa has thrown just 7 touchdowns to 10 interceptions in 8 career games against Sean McDermott’s defense. Buffalo’s defensive strategy of playing 2 high safeties and creating a shell to limit big plays forces Mike McDaniel’s offense to be methodical in moving the ball down the field. That hasn’t been a recipe for success in past meeting between these teams, and I see that trend continuing here. Let’s take Buffalo to win by at least a touchdown on Sunday.

Dolphins vs Bills prediction: Bills -6 available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.5

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Given that I think the Bills are going to cover the number in this matchup, the game script suggests that we should be headed for an under. The Dolphins offense was a disaster on all fronts without Tagovailoa, especially in the passing game. Therefore, while that area of the offense should be rectified a bit this week, going from the Cardinals defense a week ago to a Bills defense that has given him trouble over the years is anything but an ideal matchup for Tagovailoa. It doesn’t help matters that the Dolphins are turning the ball over at a higher rate than usual and have really struggled with finishing drives, which is another glaring issue against an opportunistic Bills defense that stiffens in the red zone (7th in red zone touchdowns allowed).

As for the Dolphins defense, Miami has repeatedly struggled to slow down Josh Allen in the Mike McDaniel era, so that does give me a bit of pause considering what we’ve seen in recent meetings between these teams. With that said, this is still a Bills offense that is going to be content to run the ball on early downs and grind down this defense. The Bills don’t need much of a lead for their defense, as they currently sit at 9th in EPA per pass and have a trio of cornerbacks that are playing at a Pro Bowl level at the moment. We just saw what a very injured Buffalo defense did to the Miami passing offense in Week 2, so I’m confident that McDermott’s scheme will continue to flummox McDaniel and a Dolphins offense that continues to underachieve in big spots. Let’s take the under in Buffalo.

Under 50 available at time of publishing. Playable to 49.5