HomeNFLNFL PredictionsLos Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans Prediction, Odds and Wild Card Picks

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans Prediction, Odds and Wild Card Picks for Saturday, 01/11/25

Updated: 9:00 AM ET Jan 08, 2025

NRG StadiumCBS

Chargers

4:30 PM ETSat Jan 11

Texans

LLWWW	Last 5	WWLLW
11-6	Record	10-7
12-4-1	ATS Record	7-10-0
8-9	O/U Record	6-11

Vote on who will cover the spread!

Best Bets

NFL

Point Spread PickBest Bet

LA Chargers -3.0(+100)LA Chargers @ HOU Texans

Reasoning

For the first time in a long time, arrows are pointing up on the Chargers’ future. Although LAC has many of the same stars from previous campaigns, including their burgeoning QB, Justin Herbert, this is the first year that Jim Harbaugh led the team. Harbaugh, at this point, is one of the more famous figures in football, for good reason. After leading the Michigan Wolverines to their first championship in 39 years, Harbaugh has turned around the Chargers, a franchise that’s been cyclically shooting itself in the foot for over a decade. Under Harbaugh, no defense allows fewer points (17.7 per game), and the Bolts have a balanced offense with a top-10 passing attack in a slew of statistical categories (like their 9th-ranked 7.6 yards per pass).

Last year, the Texans were in a very similar situation to what the Chargers are experiencing this season. CJ Stroud was the talk of the town, a scintillating rookie thrower who seemed too poised for his age, with a new coach and above-average defense that instantly flipped Houston’s brand. This year, it hasn’t been as impressive. Some of their statistics are still exceptional, like their ability to limit explosive plays (they’re 4th in opponent yards per play), and of course, Stroud still has arm talent that most young QBs would die for. But it’s still different. The Texans are not winning the big games any more. They lost by margin to Minnesota, Kansas City and Baltimore, and were lucky to catch Detroit on a day where the Lions committed 5 turnovers. They still lost by a field goal.

From a gambling perspective, the Texans aren’t fooling anyone. They’re just 7-8-2 ATS this season, with most of their covers delivered against programs like Tennessee, Dallas and New England; aka bottom feeders. The Chargers’ gambling records also check out– they’re one of the best in the NFL (12-5 ATS), and they’re even better as a road favorite (5-1 ATS). Everything about Houston’s season has been underwhelming, and we would be crazy to believe that they’ll suddenly change just because it’s a home game on Saturday. The Chargers are the better team and we have little doubt that Harbaugh will have them as prepared as they’ve ever been to win and cover.

Chargers vs Texans prediction: Chargers -3 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

Bet like a Caesar with this awesome new customer offer from Caesars, where you can get a welcome boost worth up to $1,000 on Caesars. Become a Caesars member 👥 using the Caesars promo code PICKSWISE1000, where you can bet on our Chargers vs Texans picks.

BET -3.0 NOW WITH

Chris R. Farley

Chargers vs Texans Pickswise Expert Predictions

NFL

Game Totals Pick

Under 42.5(-110)LA Chargers @ HOU Texans

Reasoning

Saturday’s AFC Wildcard matchup between the Chargers and Texans will come down to a battle of elite arms, which is why we think there won’t be as many points as you might imagine. Wait, what? You heard us right. Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud are among the best quarterbacks in the world, but neither will have an easy matchup in their opening playoff game. By now, if you don’t know the Chargers are one of the NFL’s premier defenses then you haven’t been paying attention, but we’ll remind you anyway. They’re top-5 in almost every category that matters, including #1 marks in opponent points per game, red-zone touchdown rate and touchdowns per game. Against the pass they’re particularly stingy, top 8 or better in interceptions, pass yards allowed and sack rate, and they’re 2nd in opponent yards per pass (just 6.7). Stroud will surely have his hands full against a defense he hasn’t seen yet this season, which only makes the matchup tougher.

The same can be said on the other side. Houston’s defense breaks at times, like their tendency to suddenly capitulate in the red zone (ranked 27th), but they’re mostly dependable and effective. No program permits a lower completion rate to opposing QBs (58.84%) and they’re 2nd in interceptions, 6th in opponent pass yards per game (210) and 5th in opponent yards per pass (6.8). The Chargers prefer to run the ball anyway (10th in rush play percentage), but it’s unlikely that either defense will allow too many (if any) explosive plays. The total for this battle opened at 44 and has been steadily moving down; we completely agree with this assertion. While highlight-reel quarterbacks may be standing behind center, it’s the defenses that make these 2 programs so fierce. We believe those defenses will take over and slow this game down tremendously, especially with the added pressure of the postseason.

Chargers vs Texans prediction: Under 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Chargers vs Texans predictions.

BET u42.5 NOW WITH

Chris R. Farley

Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

@FarleyBets

Featured In

Parlay Pick

4:30 PM ETSat Jan 11

Saturday's NFL Wild Card parlay

Top Trends

Point Spread

The Chargers have covered in 4 of their last 5 games as a road favorite.

Game Totals

The Chargers' last 4 games have gone Over the total.

Money Line

The Chargers have won 5 of their last 7 games on the road.

$200

Bet $5, Get $200 Instantly!

Bet $5 on any sports market and get $200 in bonus bets instantly

Gambling Problem? Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (CO/IL/IN/LA/MD/MI/NJ/PA/TN/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA). 21+ (18+ WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA(select parishes)/MD/MI/NJ/NY/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Void in OH/ONT. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid 1 per new customer. Min. $5 deposit. Min. $5 bet. $200 issued as bonus bets that expire 7 days (168 hours) after being awarded. See terms at sportsbook.draftkings.com.

$200

Bet $5, Get $200 Instantly!

Bet $5 on any sports market and get $200 instantly

$200

Bet $5, Get $200 Instantly!

$200

Bet $5, Get $200 Instantly!

Bet $5 on any sports market and get $200 in bonus bets instantly

Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537). See terms at sportsbook.draftkings.com.

Coins

Get up to 1,570,000 Gold Coins + 45 FREE Sweeps Coins upon signup

You’ll get a 1,570,000 Gold Coins + 45 free Sweeps Coins upon signup

Start making bets with the at the Sportzino Social Sportsbook & Casino

Get up to 1,570,000 Gold Coins + 45 FREE Sweeps Coins upon signup

Coins

Get up to 1,570,000 Gold Coins + 45 FREE Sweeps Coins upon signup

You’ll get a 1,570,000 Gold Coins + 45 free Sweeps Coins upon signup

Start making bets with the at the Sportzino Social Sportsbook & Casino

Get up to 1,570,000 Gold Coins + 45 FREE Sweeps Coins upon signup