Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 11/17/24

The Las Vegas Raiders will travel to South Beach for a Week 11 matchup against the Miami Dolphins, who just upset the Los Angeles Rams 23-15 on Monday Night Football. Neither team has been exactly lighting it up this season, as the Dolphins sit in 10th place in the AFC while the Raiders are in 15th. I don’t foresee Las Vegas turning things around and making the playoffs, and Miami would essentially have to run the table with a schedule that includes road games against the Packers and Texans and a home meeting with the 49ers, so I don’t foresee them making the playoffs either. These scenarios make Sunday’s game a tricky one to handicap, but I think the hosts can win by more than a TD.

Miami got back on track in Week 10, marking their first win by more than a touchdown this season. Although Las Vegas enters this game off their bye week and Miami is on a short week, I’m not sure how much Head Coach Anthony Pierce will be able to take advantage. Last season, the Raiders were shut out after their bye week, and we still don’t know whether QB Gardner Minshew or Desmond Ridder will be running the offense. Whoever starts better be ready to throw the rock because the Raiders are dead last in the NFL in rushing yards per game (76.9).

Now, Mike McDaniels hasn’t fared well when the Dolphins were on a short week in two situations this season, but it’s worth noting that both those games came against divisional rivals in the Bills and Patriots. Additionally, this Dolphins defense is severely underrated, and I’m not sure how Las Vegas is going to put up points. Miami held Matt Stafford and the Rams to six field goals this last week, and they’re giving up just 305.8 total yards (10th in the NFL) and 22.4 points (T-16th in the NFL) per game. When the Raiders have faced defenses in the top ½ of the league this season, they’ve scored an average of 16.8 points. Meanwhile, the Phins have struggled against top-tier defenses with Tua under center this year, but Las Vegas ranks 30th in the NFL in average points allowed (27.9). This one could be ugly, but I’ll be backing the Dolphins to win by 8+ this Sunday in Miami.

Raiders vs Dolphins prediction: Miami -7.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable up to -8 (-110)

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When it comes to Raiders vs Dolphins picks, I feel much better backing the Under this Sunday. I’ve already discussed how I expect Miami to win at Hard Rock Stadium, and I’m not sure how you can have any confidence in this Raiders offense. They’ve struggled to score in their seven defeats this season, averaging just 17.4 points. They’ll have a better chance of scoring if Gardner Minshew starts, but if Pierce decides to go with Ridder, the Under is even more attractive. The Cincinnati Bearcats product has started 17 games in his career (all for the ATL Falcons), and he’s averaged just 17.7 points in those games. Now, he’ll go up against a Miami defense that just stifled the red-hot Rams in Los Angeles on Monday Night Football.

On the flip side, I expect the Raiders defense to benefit from the bye week, as team captain LB Robert Spillane was dealing with a knee injury in Week 9 even though he played. They should be 100% entering this game and have had two full weeks to scheme up a game plan against a Miami offense that hasn’t exactly been firing on all cylinders this season. Even with Tua under center, the Phins have scored an average of 21.4 points in five contests, and he didn’t look great against a Rams secondary that’s allowing 219.6 passing yards per contest (22nd in the NFL).

I anticipate a run-heavy approach for Miami, which should cause time to slowly tick off the clock. Additionally, the Under has cashed in 8 of Miami’s last 11 games and in 6 of their 9 games this season. The only way I see this game going Over is if the Phins offense suddenly decides to score 30+, but they haven’t done that once this season, so I’ll back the Under on Sunday.

Raiders vs Dolphins prediction: Under 44.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to 44 (-110)

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