HomeNFLNFL PredictionsKansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction, Odds and NFL Christmas Picks

Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction, Odds and NFL Christmas Picks for Today, 12/25/24

Updated: 1:52 AM ET Dec 25, 2024

Acrisure StadiumNetflix

14-1

Chiefs

1:00 PM ETToday

10-5

Steelers

Vote on who will cover the spread!

Chiefs vs Steelers Pickswise Expert Predictions

NFL

Point Spread Pick

PIT Steelers +2.5(-110)KC Chiefs @ PIT Steelers

Reasoning

Happy Christmas, Pickswise Nation! We’ve got an NFL doubleheader live on Netflix to get excited for, kicking off with the Kansas City Chiefs making the trip to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. Pittsburgh suffered a setback in the AFC North race as they fell 34-17 to the Ravens last Saturday, but Mike Tomlin’s team should be able to bounce back here. Tomlin’s record as an underdog speaks for itself and, despite losing 2 straight, we should see a spirited performance from the Steelers to give Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs all they can handle. Despite now being 14-1, this Kansas City team continues to look vulnerable and given that they rank bottom 10 in passing yards per attempt while putting up the 2nd-fewest yards per carry, the Steelers are more than capable of keeping the Chiefs in check. Pittsburgh has recorded the 3rd-most interceptions this season and should give Mahomes all he can handle.

While the Steelers offense has stalled over the last couple of weeks, they could be boosted by the return of top wide receiver George Pickens – who said on Monday that he has a “real chance” to play. If Pickens returns, this adds another dimension to Pittsburgh’s passing attack and should inject more life into Russell Wilson and this offense. Wilson has 15 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions this season and with the 2-headed rushing attack of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren stepping up, the Steelers should be able to move the chains. This should be a close game and taking on the Super Bowl champs is always a daunting prospect, but getting Pittsburgh as a home underdog in this spot feels too good to pass up.

Chiefs vs Steelers prediction: Steelers +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +1.5.

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Andrew Wilsher

NFL

Game Totals Pick

Under 43.0(-110)KC Chiefs @ PIT Steelers

Reasoning

Defense has been the key to each of these teams’ success this season and that should be on full display here in what figures to be a low-scoring battle. Both offenses are averaging just 4 yards per carry on the ground, which is tied for the 2nd-fewest in the NFL, while the Steelers have the 8th-fewest passing yards. KC has held each of its last 4 opponents to 19 points or fewer, while Pittsburgh has given up the 4th-fewest points in the AFC. While George Pickens’ potential return would be a boost for the Steelers’ offense, the wide receiver is unlikely to be at 100% if he does suit up, and Andy Reid is likely to create a plan to take him out of the game given Pittsburgh’s clear struggles while he has been out. The Chiefs continue to be lackluster on offense and we should see another contest featuring these teams where defense is the name of the game.

Chiefs vs Steelers prediction: Under 43 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Andrew Wilsher

Show Bio

Managing Editor of Pickswise. Born and raised in jolly old London, England, with an undying love for the NFL, NBA, soccer and horse racing. A big-time sports bettor who loves futures markets and backing underdogs. Long-suffering New York Jets fan. For Andrew Wilsher media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

@aWilsher94

Pickswise Expert Prop Picks

Player Passing Yards Pick

P. Mahomes (KC) - Over 249.5 pass yds(-110)

Reasoning

It’s been a disappointing 4 weeks in the run game since Isiah Pacheco returned. The duo of Pacheco and Kareem Hunt have failed to sniff 100 yards combined rushing since Pacheco returned from an ankle injury, so it’s been the Patrick Mahomes show. Mahomes is averaging 40.5 pass attempts during that span while the run game struggles. It won’t get any easier for the running back duo versus the Steelers, who rank in the top 10 in yards allowed per carry and rushing yards allowed per game. Instead of fading one of Hunt or Pacheco, we’ll pivot to back Mahomes. Hunt and Pacheco have rushing lines set below 45.5 yards – Accurate lines set by the sportsbooks.

Even with the Chiefs 14-1 record, they have yet to escalate a lead that puts Mahomes and the Chiefs in a run-heavy game script. Mahomes continues to throw when having the lead in the 2nd half. He’s thrown over 20 passes in the 2nd half in 3 of his last 4 games, including surpassing the over of 249.5 passing yards in 3 of his last 5 games. The supposed ankle injury Mahomes sustained over a week ago looks like a thing of the past. But if it hinders him during the short week, look for Mahomes to stay in the pocket and dish out to his reliable and healthy receiver room with Marquise Brown back.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

X. Worthy (KC) to score a TD(+250)

Reasoning

It’s not like Worthy is going to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but where would the Chiefs’ offense be if they had not traded up to the first round to get him? Not in a good place – that’s for sure. Worthy is the team leader among wide receivers in catches (51), targets (89), yards (559) and touchdowns (5). The former Texas standout has also rushed for 3 TDs, including in Week 15 against Cleveland. He has found the endzone in 4 of the last 9 contests, including once this past week during a 27-19 victory over Houston. Kansas City now faces a Pittsburgh squad that is in the bottom half of the league in passing defense (220.7 yards per game allowed) and has surrendered 19 touchdowns through the air. I will happily back Worthy to score at lofty +250 odds.

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Ricky Dimon

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

N. Harris (PIT) to score a TD(+170)

Reasoning

Harris has also scored 5 TDs this season and all 5 have come in the last 10 outings. The 2021 first-round pick failed to deliver a touchdown in either Week 15 or Week 16, but both of those were negative game scripts for Pittsburgh. The Steelers got clobbered by both the Eagles and the Ravens, so their RB1 was limited to a total of 15 rushing attempts in those contests. Fortunately, they now face an opponent that rarely blows teams out. And as a 2.5-point spread suggests, this Christmas Day contest is expected to be competitive. Harris will almost certainly get a lot of touches, especially since sometimes the best defense against K.C.’s offense is to keep the clock moving and force Mahomes to be off the field as long as possible. Count on the home team feeding Harris in the red zone, too. At +170, he also has great value.

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Ricky Dimon

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Parlay Pick

1:00 PM ETToday

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Game Totals

The Under is 8-5 in the Steelers' home games and the Chiefs' road games combined this season.

Money Line

The Chiefs have won 20 of their last 21 games.

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