Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 11/17/24

One of the biggest games of the 2024 NFL season will take place in Buffalo on Sunday between a pair of familiar foes; the Bills and Chiefs. Kansas City enters this game following yet another miraculous victory over the Broncos a week ago, in which the Chiefs blocked what would have been a game-winning field goal from Denver as time expired. As for the hosts, the Bills have won 5 straight games by an average of over 12.2 points and certainly look like the biggest threat to Andy Reid’s team in their pursuit of an unprecedented third straight championship.

Everyone knows how great Patrick Mahomes has been as an underdog in his career, but the numbers are still worth repeating. Over the course of his career, Mahomes is 12-1-1 against the spread as an underdog, including an 11-3 straight up record in those spots. In fact, Mahomes is 25-10 straight up and a whopping 26-8-1 against the number when listed as an underdog, or favored by 3 points or less. It’s just the fourth time in the Super Bowl era that a 9-0 team (or better) is listed as an underdog, making this an extremely rare circumstance as well. And while I’ve had my eye on this game since the offseason as a spot where Buffalo would prevail at home, I can’t quite get there with this line given what the Bills are likely going to be missing on the field in this one. Yes, what Kansas City is doing is unsustainable by any metric. After all, this is a team that has won 9 straight games when trailing by at least 7 points. Much like it did last season, the Chiefs offense has relied on late-game heroics and 3rd and 4th down magic from Mahomes to consistently win games. Even though fading this incredible streak of good fortune is the logical approach to this game (and going forward), betting on that Mahomes magic to regress is simply a losing battle over time, as many professional bettors learned the hard way during the playoffs a season ago.

Buffalo is once again getting a tremendous season from Josh Allen, as he continues to play like one of the best talents we’ve seen at the quarterback position. However, the Bills are dealing with some key injuries on the offensive side of the ball, particularly when it comes to providing viable pass-catches for Allen to find downfield. Rookie wideout Keon Coleman has already been ruled out for this game, and both Amari Cooper and Dalton Kincaid are unlikely to suit up on Sunday. We already know that Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady wants to establish the run on early downs, especially with a banged-up receiving corps. Therefore, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense should have the upper hand in this matchup, as Kansas City is a top 5 unit in DVOA against the run. In addition to the injuries that we’re seeing with Buffalo’s offense, there’s also a massive coaching advantage from a situational perspective in this one. It’s difficult to trust Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott to make the right in-game coaching decisions when things get tight late in the game, given how we’ve seen him falter repeatedly in critical moments in recent years. This one has all of the makings of another extremely close meeting between these teams, so let’s take the points with Kansas City.

Chiefs vs Bills prediction: Chiefs +2.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

Bet like a Caesar with this awesome new customer offer from Caesars, where you can get a welcome boost worth up to $1,000 on Caesars. 👥 using the Caesars promo code PICKSWISE1000, where you can bet on our Chiefs vs Bills picks.

While it’s certainly possible to see either team winning this game, the winning game script for either side points me in the direction of the under. Sean McDermott has done another fine job with coaching up this Bills defense, as this unit currently sits at ninth in EPA per rush, 10th in EPA per pass and ninth in scoring defense. Given that Kansas City has struggled with generating consistent explosiveness downfield in the passing game, it’s hard to see that drastically changing against a Buffalo defense loves to take away the explosive play and forces you to move the ball methodically down the field. On the other side, the Bills offense is likely going to be pretty depleted on Sunday, which gives Joe Brady and the offensive coaching staff further incentive to lean more into the ground game and focus on limiting possessions for Kansas City and shortening the game. With all factors in mind, the Under looks to be the right side to be on.

Under 46.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.