Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/22/24

It’s not exactly a marquee matchup here in Week 16, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find value as the Las Vegas Raiders get ready to host the Jacksonville Jaguars. And I think the value lies with the home team in this one. Las Vegas will get Aidan O’Connell back under center here, and regardless of what you think of O’Connell, he’s a dramatic upgrade over Desmond Ridder. In O’Connell’s last full game before getting hurt, the Raiders put up a very strong effort and nearly beat the Chiefs on the road.

Were it not for an errant snap in the waning seconds, they likely would’ve won outright in Arrowhead as double digit ‘dogs. The Jaguars have lost 6 of 7, with their only win coming by a score of 10-6 against the lowly Titans. Last week, Jacksonville gave up 32 in a loss to the Jets. Trevor Lawrence is done for the year so it’s Mac Jones at quarterback the rest of the year, and Jones has already thrown 7 interceptions this year on just 169 pass attempts.

He’s thrown multiple picks in back to back weeks, and I give the clear edge to O’Connell here. Las Vegas’ defense has also gotten a bit better the last coupe of games, and last week they held Atlanta to only 15 points. Kirk Cousins only had 112 yards, and the Raiders made him look so bad that he got benched the day after. The aforementioned narrow win over the Titans was the only win the Jaguars have on the road this season, and in their previous game on the highway they lost by a score of 52-6.

Raiders -2.5 available at publishing.

The over also makes a lot of sense in this spot. Las Vegas’ offense has looked a lot better with Aidan O’Connell under center, and in his last full start he threw for 340 yards while averaging 9.7 per attempt on the road against the Chiefs. Brock Bowers has been a bright spot in a dark season for the Raiders, and he’s shown nice chemistry with O’Connell. Bowers had 140 yards in that Kansas City game, and should feast again here.

The Jaguars have been torched by just about everybody who isn’t Will Levis recently, and last week Aaron Rodgers picked them apart for 3 TDs and 9.6 YPA in one of his best performances of the season. Las Vegas also has one of the worst defenses in the league, and they’ll be without Maxx Crosby here after the star pass-rusher was recently placed on injured reserve. Both of these teams are just playing out the string with nothing to play for in Week 16, so I’m not expecting the defensive intensity to be off the charts.

Over 41 available at publishing.