Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 09/23/24
LWLLL | Last 5 | WWLWW |
| 0-2 | Record | 2-0 |
| 1-1-0 | ATS Record | 1-1-0 |
| 0-2 | O/U Record | 1-1 |
Jaguars vs Bills Pickswise Expert Predictions
Over the summer, it felt like I was one of the few people within the NFL betting space that wasn’t running to the window to back the New York Jets to unseat the Bills at the top of the AFC East this year. We’re only a couple of weeks into the season, but the Jets closing as the division favorite already seems a bit ridiculous in hindsight. There was serious concern in the market about Buffalo’s offense in the offseason, but the Bills have adapted to life without Stefon Diggs just fine over the first few weeks of the season, and they’ve done it by running the ball efficiently and continuing to lean on Josh Allen to produce another elite offense, much like he’s done every year since his breakout campaign in 2020. There’s no doubt that new offensive coordinator Joe Brady has made a huge difference in Buffalo’s style of play, as the Bills are producing more methodical scoring drives while also maintaining the highest success rate in the league on offense through 2 weeks.
However, despite my unwavering belief in Allen and my trust in this coaching staff, this still is a tricky spot for the Bills on Monday night. Buffalo is coming off a resounding 31-10 blowout of the Miami Dolphins that was a lot closer in the box score than the final score would indicate. In fact, if it wasn’t for a couple of awful turnovers from Tua Tagovailoa, the final score would have undoubtedly looked a lot different, and this number might be shaded a bit lower as a result. Now, in steps a desperate Jacksonville Jaguars team that is trying to avoid an 0-3 start after a pair of demoralizing losses to open the season.
Jacksonville is far too talented to be in this position, and the Jaguars have also gotten pretty unlucky in their losses to the Dolphins and Browns over the past couple of weeks. The defense hasn’t been an issue for the most part, as Jacksonville held the Dolphins offense to just 20 points and was the primary reason why the Jaguars were leading by double digits in that game. Last week, the Jaguars limited Cleveland’s offense to just 16 points, but it still wasn’t enough to overcome an offense that has really struggled to this point. It hasn’t been an ideal season for Trevor Lawrence to this point, but the talented quarterback will get to test a Bills linebacking group and secondary that has already dealt with a number of crushing injuries early in the season. Sean McDermott has already put on a coaching clinic with a depleted defense last week, but it remains to be seen if that can be kept up as the weeks roll on. Jacksonville gave the Bills fits in London a season ago and while these teams aren’t exactly the same, it’s hard for me not to lean toward this being a close, lower-scoring game on Monday in Buffalo.
Jaguars vs Bills prediction: Jaguars +5.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.
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Caleb Wilfinger
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Model projections coming soon
The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
The Bills' last 4 home games have gone Over the total.
The Bills have won 4 of their last 5 games against teams with losing records.
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