Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 10/27/24
WWLWW | Last 5 | LWWWL |
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 6-1-0 | ATS Record | 3-4-0 |
| 3-4 | O/U Record | 2-5 |
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The Houston Texans will host the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday in the second matchup between these 2 squads this year. They faced off in Week 1, and the Texans picked up a 29-27 road victory. Although the scoreline made that game appear close, Houston outgained Indy by 114 yards and had the ball twice as long as the Colts. Indy needed two 50+ yard passing TDs from Anthony Richardson to stay competitive in that game, and I wouldn’t expect a similar performance from the sophomore QB. Since that game, Richardson has completed just 48.8% of his passes to go with 1 TD and 5 INTs. They were able to scrape by the Dolphins 16-10 last weekend, but I believe they’ll need to score 24+ to keep Sunday’s game close.
The Texans enter this game off a tough 24-22 road loss to the Green Bay Packers, marking their second defeat of the season against the NFC North. Head coach Demeco Ryans managed the clock poorly in the 4th quarter, but he will learn from his mistakes, and I expect him to have his team locked in this week. Houston currently sits atop the AFC South, and a win this weekend would more than likely seal the deal for a division title, as they would be 2 games ahead of the Colts and own the tiebreaker. Additionally, the Texans have been much better when playing at home dating back to last year, as they are 10-3 at NRG Stadium with QB CJ Stroud under center, posting an average win margin of 11.0 points in the 10 victories.
Anthony Richardson has started just 1 road game this year, which was a 16-10 defeat to the Packers, and I have zero faith that he will somehow turn things around against a divisional foe. Additionally, the Texans are 6-1 SU when rushing for 120+ yards since Stroud and Ryans took over last year, and the Colts are giving up 134.8 rushing yards per contest in the same timeframe (29th in the NFL during that span). The only thing that could make me lean towards Indy is the fact that they should get RB Jonathan Taylor back from injury, but the Texans were able to keep him in check in Week 1 (16 rushing attempts for 48 yards), so I don’t foresee him making a major impact. I’ll back the Texans to win by a TD or more, as they are 7-1 SU following a loss with Stroud as their QB and have won those 7 contests by an average of 9.14 points.
Colts vs Texans prediction: Houston -5 (-108) available at the time of publishing, playable down to -6.
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Colts vs Texans Pickswise Expert Predictions
Luke Lindholm
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Model projections coming soon
The Under is 4-1 in the Texans' last 5 matchups against AFC South teams.
The Texans have won 4 of their last 5 home games against AFC teams.
The Texans have covered the spread in 2 of their last 3 games.
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